131 replies to this topic

[dharma]

well another bankster, gs has called for gold @1350 not a surprise to me bernake, leaks his speech @the open and the metals hit the skids. the fed is stuck in hotel california, say what they want. if they dont qe , down the rabbit hole we go folks are mystified by the broads. they are responding to world money trying to find a safe home and world wide liquidity i am in survival mode. it is obvious to me that the 1trillion a year created by the fed is not near enough japan has upped the anti. and who else will enter the fray, as to not be left behind one day there will be an epiphany. from what level? it never gets old , gold rallies folks buy. gold get hit folks sell. and so it goes. yawn wait mode. dharma

[dharma]

kyle bass
http://www.bloomberg...5IQDBznJVw.html
dharma

[salsabob]

kyle bass
http://www.bloomberg...5IQDBznJVw.html
dharma

Be careful. Kyle is a smart guy but he doesn't understand how fiat monetary systems actually work. The farther away his calls are from being based on his faulty monetary assumptions, the better. The closer they are, the worse. Given Japan is taking its monetary system flexiblity to where no other has gone before, one would expect Kyle's freakout to be a good fade - and if history is any guide -

http://www.businessi...sastrous-2012-5

CONFIRMED: Kyle Bass's Performance Really Is That Disastrous

- for those who do understand how fiat monetary systems actually work, the trade against the BOJ is know as the "poor widow maker" - with those making the bet often jumping out of buildings and not leaving much to their wives.

[dougie]

Salsabb: so you are of the opinion that the JPY short crowd will be wrong one more time?

and for those of us who dont understand how fiat money systems work, would you be so good as to elucidate a bit?
Thanks

kyle bass
http://www.bloomberg...5IQDBznJVw.html
dharma

Be careful. Kyle is a smart guy but he doesn't understand how fiat monetary systems actually work. The farther away his calls are from being based on his faulty monetary assumptions, the better. The closer they are, the worse. Given Japan is taking its monetary system flexiblity to where no other has gone before, one would expect Kyle's freakout to be a good fade - and if history is any guide -

http://www.businessi...sastrous-2012-5

CONFIRMED: Kyle Bass's Performance Really Is That Disastrous

- for those who do understand how fiat monetary systems actually work, the trade against the BOJ is know as the "poor widow maker" - with those making the bet often jumping out of buildings and not leaving much to their wives.

[dharma]

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months . well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march they just released and are implementing their new qe plan bass is position is that of the long term so the jury is still out. bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco. i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here. personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof dharma

[dougie]

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

[dharma]

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

yes , his thesis on japan has been around for awhile. he only recently started to get hurt by it. is my point. and from what he says, its a longer term view.
to me its like saying gold is unprofitable to trade from the long side, judging by todays action
which by the way was a coordinated attack
1st the fed releases before the open-never happens
then gs calls for 1350 advising its clients to short-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html;_ylt=Ar43nyEOCq_UiVUSCnkfZ6SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4c2U0OXZtBG1pdANDTk
JDIFRvcCB
then lagrande speaking in ny assures that the financial system is sound and bail ins will never happen again-http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-says-economy-less-dangerous-2013-04-10

dharma

[salsabob]

Salsabb: so you are of the opinion that the JPY short crowd will be wrong one more time?

Generally, yes, but (as always) timeframe dependent (that's why I hang out here )

and for those of us who dont understand how fiat money systems work, would you be so good as to elucidate a bit?
Thanks

Boiled down –

Monetary sovereigns (e.g. BOJ, US Fed, BoE, ECB) cannot default on their debt (outside of a political choice for economic suicide - see US debt ceiling insanity)

A monetary sovereign CB can control the interest rate structure on debt owed in its currency; although it eventually has to response to real economics (not financials - like mythical bond vigilantes), e.g., the FED really has little political/economic choice but to keep rates low, but mechanistically it can keep rates low; if the actual economy improves, it has to raise rates and mechanistically always can.

Basically, anyone betting that such CBs will loss control is going to be highly vulnerable to losing a lot of money. However, one always needs to keep in mind how many others are betting that way and may be influential enough for shorter term countertrends (again, why I lurk here).

Note also that just like our FED doesn't choose to keep Stockton, CA afloat, the ECB can choose not to keep currency users like Cyprus or the PIGS solvent, …. but it could if it chooses to.

In addition to economic growth (or not), actual real sustained inflation (or deflation) is what matters to them - everything else is a tool in the box.

Edited by salsabob, 10 April 2013 - 04:24 PM.

[stubaby]

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

yes , his thesis on japan has been around for awhile. he only recently started to get hurt by it. is my point. and from what he says, its a longer term view.
to me its like saying gold is unprofitable to trade from the long side, judging by todays action
which by the way was a coordinated attack
1st the fed releases before the open-never happens
then gs calls for 1350 advising its clients to short-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html;_ylt=Ar43nyEOCq_UiVUSCnkfZ6SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4c2U0OXZtBG1pdANDTk
JDIFRvcCB
then lagrande speaking in ny assures that the financial system is sound and bail ins will never happen again-http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-says-economy-less-dangerous-2013-04-10

dharma

Long-term:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XJY&p=M&st=1970-10-17&en=(today)&i=p54391777947&a=211621799&r=60.png


stubaby

[tria]

Bass has made his short JGB calls for ages though dharma
maybe he will be right but anyone listening to those calls has been decimated

now keep in mind bass premise is for the long term . the examples you use are the last 4 months .
well during that time shenzo abe was elected, his platform was easier money to help deflation lose its grip
shirakawa resigned and kuroda was put in in march
they just released and are implementing their new qe plan
bass is position is that of the long term
so the jury is still out.
bass has made billions was right on the mortgage fiasco.
i have no stock in him. he is a smart guy
i just wanted to bring some balance to the statements brought out here.
personally, i do think japan is in the worst shape of the major economic powers. their age demographics
speak for themselves as well as their population growth or lack thereof
dharma

yes , his thesis on japan has been around for awhile. he only recently started to get hurt by it. is my point. and from what he says, its a longer term view.
to me its like saying gold is unprofitable to trade from the long side, judging by todays action
which by the way was a coordinated attack
1st the fed releases before the open-never happens
then gs calls for 1350 advising its clients to short-http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-time-short-132705633.html;_ylt=Ar43nyEOCq_UiVUSCnkfZ6SiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQ4c2U0OXZtBG1pdANDTk
JDIFRvcCB
then lagrande speaking in ny assures that the financial system is sound and bail ins will never happen again-http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-says-economy-less-dangerous-2013-04-10

dharma

I don't know what Lagarde said, neither do I believe any of them since on a Friday evening in November 1967, the UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson, assured us (I was a university student in London then) that the British Pound was sound and the next day on saturday he devalued it by 14%.

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/3208396.stm

It was all over the Greek TV channels evening newstoday that on Friday's Eurogroup meeting, they will discuss the possibility that from 2015 any Eurozone Bank in trouble will haircut first its shareholders then its Bondholders and if needed the unsecured troubled Bank depositors above euro 100K.
For the Countries already under Bail-out agreement, Bail-in may be impimented at a moments notice.

http://silverdoctors...o-face-bail-in/

Dharma, do you realize that the Russians who had Gold in the troubled Banks safe deposit boxes were saved from any haircut whilst the large depositors lost anything from 40% up to 90%?
Do you realize that Greeks having Gold rather than real estate were saved from a 40% haircut? (30% drop in prices and 15% at least in new taxes)

-tria