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Are we making a generational top in stocks?


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#1 Kimston

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 10:23 AM

Timing and cycle analysis has not worked well for the last few years. Let's see if price projection analysis does any better. I have two major price targets for the DJIA cash. 15,000 to 15,050 area is the first and most probable, which we are hitting as I am typing this. This is based on several very long term geometric projections from major swing points in the DOW from 1929, 1932 and 1966. Another price confluence point is around 15,800 area based on several geometric projections from multiple swing points since the 2009 lows. I'm favoring the 15,000 area as THE top but, if 15,200 gets taken out on a weekly close, I would then expect the 15,800 area would be in play. I see the SPX has also hit Phi times 1000 (1618), which may or may not turn out to be important. As noted, market timing hasn't worked well, but we are entering an important timing confluence for a potential reversal. The confluence window is from 5/3/13 to 5/16/13. If the market starts a topping process in here, I would expect it to end and turn down by 5/20/13. I'm accumulating long term shorts/puts above 15,000 DJIA with a stop on weekly close above 15,200. If 15,000 - 15,050 holds, it may mark the top for many years. I may post some charts later if I have time to put some together. Kimston

#2 merciless

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 05:44 PM

Make time.........pleassssssssssss B)

#3 dougie

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Posted 05 May 2013 - 12:43 PM

Kinston: are you not running the risk of being called a serial top caller?
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=141767

and i say that NOT as criticism

#4 dougie

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Posted 05 May 2013 - 01:43 PM

scratch my last reply! YOur signals might just be failing for a very important reason: CBI buying. If the wealth effect is driving CB buying here, none of these signals have a chance imo. No till the parabola runs its course

#5 Kimston

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 12:54 AM

Kinston: are you not running the risk of being called a serial top caller?
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=141767

and i say that NOT as criticism


Previous setups were based almost entirely on cycles and timing projections, which I believe I stated have not worked well for the last few years. Actually, my post at the link you referenced was pretty accurate for picking the timing for a top of one of the 9% sell-offs in 2012. It failed to kick-off the longer term down trend which I am expecting and believe may be imminent. I've had a few set-ups for potential tops that have failed, but that is the nature of trading. It typically takes 2 or 3 attempts to get long or short a market if you're using leverage and trying to time a turn. That is what stops are for. This current set-up is based a confluence of both price and time projections. Trying to get long-term shorts on will all make sense later when we take out the 2009 lows in much less time than it took to run up here from those lows. I will stop out if my analysis proves incorrect and the Bernanke miracle continues. In any case, there is always the ignore option if you find my analysis too tedious.

#6 stubaby

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:21 AM

In any case, there is always the ignore option if you find my analysis too tedious.



:D
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List

#7 dougie

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 02:30 AM

"In any case, there is always the ignore option if you find my analysis too tedious" I think you know that is not the case! AS I said in my second post, I think there may well be a good reason timing is NOT working out. CB buying might simply be overwhelming nl forces

#8 Kimston

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:30 AM

Are we there yet? If not, I think we may be getting close. We've rallied into the time window for a potential reversal with the 9th being the sweet spot in the confluence. And 5/10 is a new moon/eclipse day. We've hit the 15,000 and change level. As mentioned at the beginning of the thread, it could hold up through later in May in a topping process (if it is topping). Time will tell. If we get real exuberance in this 8th to 10th window for some reason, I may have the stop a bit tight. I think I will move it to 2% above 15,000 (15,300) on weekly close.

Kimston

#9 Kimston

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 09:04 PM

Something to be aware of is some research by Steve Puetz regarding the potential for market panics in proximity to solar and lunar eclipses.
You can check NASA's eclipse site for the exact days of upcoming eclipses.

Here is what I posted on my private blog a week ago:
"Puetz used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.

When/if the panic starts, my best guess for it to end would be around 7/5 or 7/8/2013 based on a number of cycles and the typical time for panic waves to complete."

I would say the major caveats arguing against a crash in this late May to early July Window: it is not occurring in the Fall of the year (historically most, but not all, serious crashes have occurred in the Fall); and crashes are rare events. These Puetz Windows occur quite frequently, and most of the time they are a non-event in the markets. Arguing in favor of a possible panic in the late May to early July window: the market is extremely overbought, the entire rally has been on declining volume and the consensus everywhere seems to be "there's a Fed put under the market so it can't go down"; "the momentum is strong, and there are none of the typical divergences that always precede market weakness"; and "there's nowhere else to put your money in this environment". We'll see soon enough if it's an event or non-event this time. I'd say it's probably 50/50, which is actually pretty high odds when talking about rare events. There is some additional very interesting, but probably coincidental, info I will post later if we do have an event. For now that needs to stay private.

Kimston

#10 dougie

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Posted 10 May 2013 - 02:31 AM

are we not 2 weeks away from that window? hell, by then we could be 500 Points higher! <;