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Are we making a generational top in stocks?


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#11 dougie

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Posted 14 May 2013 - 12:50 PM

looks like you are going to get your 15300

#12 Kimston

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 09:11 AM

In analyzing the Russel 2000 (basis the Mini-Russel continuous nearby futures), I found quite a cluster of price projections that point to the 1002/1003 area. As annotated on the chart posted below, I have identified 8 separate sets of swing points that project to a range of 994.30 to 1010.50. The majority of the projections are in the 1002/1003 area, and the average of all projections is 1003.32.

If the Russel gets into this 994 to 1010 price range, I think there is a high probability of a significant reversal in the Russel and other indicies. I am changing my stop on short positions to a weekly close above 1015 basis the nearby Mini Russel futures, and will probably add to shorts above the 1000 level.

Kim Rice 5/17/13

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#13 Kimston

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 12:04 AM

Well, the Russel (and the rest of the market) seems to have found resistance at the projected price zone in the 1000 area +/- a few points. Posted below is an update to the Russel 2000 chart along with a number of other indicies that reversed at what may be important resistance. I know, channels and trend lines don't really matter anymore with the Bernanke miracle and epicenter of wave 3 going on. Some timing stuff I'm looking at suggests that stocks may retest the highs or put in a lower high on or near 6/7/13 before an expected larger down leg kicks in.

Kimston

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#14 dougie

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 01:43 AM

Kimston: how are you playing this top?

#15 Kimston

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 08:44 AM

Kimston: how are you playing this top?


As noted on several posts here and there, I'm shorting this with Jan and June 2014 options and leveraged ETFs. I bought more yesterday when the DOW was up 150 points, as the Russel 2000 had moved to the upper end of the projected target zone.

Kimston

#16 dougie

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 02:19 AM

thanks do you sell calls or buy leap puts?

#17 Kimston

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 02:47 PM

thanks
do you sell calls or buy leap puts?



The options I've been buying are deep in the money SDS, TZA and QID calls (mostly Jan 2014 and some June). Buying these options about 4 or 5 points in the money costs virtually no premium; much less risk relative to buying out of the money options but still plently of leverage. Always buy much more time than you think you will need.

#18 reddybuild

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Posted 21 June 2013 - 11:59 PM

Though we spoke by PM I don't see that anyone congratulated you - you made this call when everyone was a bull. <_<

#19 An Ant

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Posted 22 June 2013 - 05:38 PM

I did mention Kimston in a post on FF. Great call indeed.

#20 Kimston

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 02:33 PM

For those that aren't paying attention, yesterday was calendar day 40, which makes today day 41. Day 47 is Monday, day 49 is 7/10 and day 56 is 7/17. The setup is here. Will it happen? Kimston