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Are we making a generational top in stocks?


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#21 kssmibotm

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Posted 08 July 2013 - 04:42 PM

Kimston, The RUT made a new closing all-time high today. What is the "line in the sand" for the RUT that forces you to rethink your call for a "generational top"? KMB

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#22 Kimston

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Posted 09 July 2013 - 01:00 AM

Kimston,

The RUT made a new closing all-time high today. What is the "line in the sand" for the RUT that forces you to rethink your call for a "generational top"?

KMB



As posted here a weekly close above 1015 wouldn't look good based on the geometry in the RUT. However, in the other indexes such as the ES and YM, so far it looks like a normal wave 2 rally which is probably heading to the .786 retracement area (ymu13 has several projections to 15,280 area). I think I may have to pull the plug on this trade if we close above the 5/22 highs in the DJIA and SPX. I'm holding long term puts. I think even if the market is not making a major top and it breaks to new highs, I suspect the market will likely have a significant retracement before the puts expire. If I'm wrong about that, a major part of risk management with options is putting no more than 10% of my trading capital on any one trade.

What's your current outlook and trading strategy for the market?

Kimston

#23 Kimston

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Posted 12 July 2013 - 01:49 AM

Kimston,

The RUT made a new closing all-time high today. What is the "line in the sand" for the RUT that forces you to rethink your call for a "generational top"?

KMB



As posted here a weekly close above 1015 wouldn't look good based on the geometry in the RUT. However, in the other indexes such as the ES and YM, so far it looks like a normal wave 2 rally which is probably heading to the .786 retracement area (ymu13 has several projections to 15,280 area). I think I may have to pull the plug on this trade if we close above the 5/22 highs in the DJIA and SPX. I'm holding long term puts. I think even if the market is not making a major top and it breaks to new highs, I suspect the market will likely have a significant retracement before the puts expire. If I'm wrong about that, a major part of risk management with options is putting no more than 10% of my trading capital on any one trade.

What's your current outlook and trading strategy for the market?

Kimston




I have a few timing projections coming up for potential CIT in stocks: one is 7/12/13 and the other 7/17/13, both dates are +/- a trading day or two. I'm guessing these may be part of a topping process for what appears to be a blow-off on good news. Reminds me of when they announced the $700B TARP in Sep 2008. It launched a 2 day screamer and then....

This time around, who knows? I do still have a price projection confluence on the DJIA at 15,875 area. I was originally thinking we would get a good sell off from the 15,500 area and then possibly run up to 15,875 early next year for the end of the generational topping process. After giving more thought to the "line in the sand" question regarding the idea of a generation top in the making, I would say it would require 2 weekly closes above 16,000 basis the DJIA. If that happens, I believe the next projections would likely be much higher (over time).

Kimston

#24 kssmibotm

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Posted 13 July 2013 - 12:17 PM

Kimston,

The RUT made a new closing all-time high today. What is the "line in the sand" for the RUT that forces you to rethink your call for a "generational top"?

KMB


What's your current outlook and trading strategy for the market?


I was delta neutral two weeks ago. I have closed all my hedges during this rally, and as of Friday, I am 80% long, 20% cash. Like you, I am waiting for confirmation of a new high in the SPX. Following a daily close above the May 22 high, I will put my remaining cash to work on the long side. I think this rally has legs until late Aug or early Sept.

KMB

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#25 fluid

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:40 AM

I am looking for a rally into the German elections in August. We keep on making new highs, and momentum is strong. I see no change for now. I think the correction is now done.

#26 fluid

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:41 AM

I think we rally into German elections.

#27 Kimston

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 12:26 AM

Well, if the market is putting in a generational top, I suppose it should take a fair amount of time to develop. The DJI exceeded the major long-term projections by a few percent, but not really too much in the bigger scheme of things. The RUT had a minor reversal at a confluence point, but decided to move well above area. The S&P 500, on the other hand, has stopped advancing right in the area of a major confluence of geometric projections in the low 1700s (I'll post the charts later). There is also quite a web of timing projections that lined up this week and last. I think two weekly closes above 1750 on SPX (or above the previously mentioned line in the sand for the DJI at 16,000) would invalidate the analysis projecting a generational top in this area. I added a bit to the short position on the move above 1700 basis cash SPX, and would continue to do so up to 1721 if the market should run up again. As of now, I still think the Jan and June 2014 options have a pretty decent chance of getting significantly bid up before expiration. As mentioned earlier in the thread, for this position trade I put on long-term deep in the money calls on inverse ETFs. Kimston

#28 diogenes227

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 02:02 PM

I am looking for a rally into the German elections in August.

We keep on making new highs, and momentum is strong. I see no change for now.

I think the correction is now done.


According to Wikipedia, the German elections are September 22, 2013. Not August.
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#29 mss

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Posted 15 August 2013 - 02:17 PM

I am looking for a rally into the German elections in August.

WRONG INFO!!

german elections at end of september not august -
mss
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#30 CRUISENAL

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Posted 28 August 2013 - 10:43 AM

Kim, I am with ya on the Generational Top!!! Alan



Well, if the market is putting in a generational top, I suppose it should take a fair amount of time to develop. The DJI exceeded the major long-term projections by a few percent, but not really too much in the bigger scheme of things. The RUT had a minor reversal at a confluence point, but decided to move well above area. The S&P 500, on the other hand, has stopped advancing right in the area of a major confluence of geometric projections in the low 1700s (I'll post the charts later). There is also quite a web of timing projections that lined up this week and last. I think two weekly closes above 1750 on SPX (or above the previously mentioned line in the sand for the DJI at 16,000) would invalidate the analysis projecting a generational top in this area. I added a bit to the short position on the move above 1700 basis cash SPX, and would continue to do so up to 1721 if the market should run up again. As of now, I still think the Jan and June 2014 options have a pretty decent chance of getting significantly bid up before expiration. As mentioned earlier in the thread, for this position trade I put on long-term deep in the money calls on inverse ETFs.

Kimston