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Are we making a generational top in stocks?


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#51 Kimston

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Posted 02 November 2014 - 07:53 PM

The DJI appears to have morphed into a rare expanding 5th wave diagonal triangle. If so, it has been underway since 4th quarter 2013.
Price and time analysis has not worked well since the massive QE programs began almost 6 years ago, so I don't know if that will
change any time soon.

I think it's a fairly high probability this is the correct count from an E-wave and Edwards and McGee perspective. However, there are no absolutes when it comes to forecasting the markets. The invalidation point for this count would likely be a weekly close above 18,100. That would probably be too far for a normal 5th wave overthrow as the presumed pattern completes.

There is a potential time analog for a top on or near 11/5/14 based on 780 and 813 td symmetry with the last 3 year leg up into the 1987 top. Additional time and price guesswork is annotated on the chart.

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#52 Kimston

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Posted 15 December 2014 - 10:51 PM

My analysis shows a significant timing confluence on or near 1/5/15 (most likely a low). Price-wise, the expanding wedge pattern projects to a target of around 14,500 basis cash DJIA. Kimston

#53 gannman

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 09:55 PM

tx it appears we are in for a high here fwiw
feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#54 Kimston

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Posted 11 January 2015 - 02:47 PM

Well, the 1/5/15 timing was not helpful; however, the market still appears to be in a large topping process.

Below are 3 charts depicting a potential fractal/analog pattern unfolding in the NYA index. The fist chart is a longer term view to give context. The other 2 charts are zoomed in views to show the almost perfect symmetry between the 2007 top and the presumed 2014/2015 top. One never knows how long these types of analogs will track, but it's certainly one I'm watching and have it as my highest probability scenario until proven otherwise. Time-wise, it may need more time to play out before breaking down but it could break down at any time (if it is a big top that's formed over the last 6 months). If the NYA instead breaks out to new all-time highs, obviously the analog would not be tracking and some other pattern is underway.

Kimston 1/11/15

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#55 Kimston

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 10:00 PM

FWIW a lot of long term cycles are pointing hard down over the next 4 weeks or so. There is also a confluence of cycles coming together on or near 2/26/15 that may mark a swing low of some degree if we trend down into that timing. Cycles haven't work well in the QE era, but I suspect they will play catch-up to the downside when they do take hold again. We'll see.... Kimston