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This weeks NAAII and AAII Sentiment signaling more upside?


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#1 Rite01

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Posted 17 May 2013 - 09:08 AM

The NAAII Sentiment 5% Bullish this week plus and AAII Sentiment only 38.5% Bullish when the DOW, S&P and Russell 2000 hitting new all time daily highs this should mean on a contrarian basis even more upside to equity markets. What I donít understand is this weeks extremely low NAAII bullish reading combined with its Bull/Bear spread number is usually reserved for Major Equity Market Bottoms not at Record Highs. Wondering if this weeks NAAII numbers just a faulty reading like the AAII readings was some 5 weeks ago due to incomplete polling data? I believe someone at Traders Talk posted this AAII explanation.

#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 01:46 PM

I don't see a 5% number at NAAIM http://www.naaim.org...dsenttrend.aspx

Investing.com has only 4% bullish as of Friday, but I don't know how large their sample is.
They seem to be a better fade but their high &*% bullish on 4/18 was the low.
NAAIM's off-the-chart (01/30/2013) = 104.25 did see a pause in February.

Sentimentrader's longer term gauge is getting into the red area but could go higher in a parabolic move.
Posted Image
$BPSPX 89.54% weekly buy signals are at a 4 year+ high and in an area which usually marks a stall.
The last reading near this one was Feb 14, 2011. It was followed by a month long decline in the SPX.
However, the FED is totally pumping this baby for now.

Ratio = Bull / Bull + Bear:
NAAIM (5/08/2013) = 84.23
AAII (as of 5/15/2013) 57%
Investing.com 5/17/13 04%
Investing.com 5/16/13 05%
Investing.com 5/15/13 09%
Investing.com 5/13/13 27%

Tickersense 5/17/013 50%
NAAIM (5/08/2013) = 79.11
AAII (as of 5/8/2013) 60%
Investing.com 5/09/13 25%

Tickersense 5/10/013 62%
NAAIM (5/01/2013) = 80.61
Investing.com 5/01/13 50%
Investing.com 4/29/13 35%
Investing.com 4/28/13 21%

Tickersense 5/03/013 36%
NAAIM (4/24/2013) = 69.90
AAII (as of 4/24/2013) 42%
Investing.com 4/25/13 13%
Investing.com 4/24/13 00%
Investing.com 4/23/13 50%

Tickersense 4/26/013 23%
NAAIM (4/17/2013) = 69.63
AAII (as of 4/17/2013) 36%
Investing.com 4/18/13 78%
Investing.com 4/16/13 57%
Investing.com 4/15/13 50%

Tickersense 4/19/2013 40%
NAAIM (4/10/2013) = 77.25
AAII (as of 4/10/2013) 26%
Investing.com 4/11/13 31%
Investing.com 4/09/13 32%
Investing.com 4/08/13 42%

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 May 2013 - 02:00 PM.


#3 Rite01

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Posted 19 May 2013 - 07:14 PM

Sorry for the confusion

Rodgerdoger your right itís not NAAIM but the TSPTalk Survey. I mistakenly labeled it on my favoriteís page. Boy you can not make a mistake around before itís soon discovered. I like that...


Found the TSP survey site a few months ago from another Traders Talk poster. Data only goes back to June 2005. Looking back to July and October 2007 and March 2009 readings it shows same ability to signal major tops and bottoms like the AAII Sentiment polls.

Iím assuming itís reliable till it proves other wise. Thatís why thisnall time record low low Bullish number just doesnít look right. Unless it signaling more upside to come. This week the AAII Survey shows the same bullish lack luster number but not nearly to the degree TSP does.


Link to the info. Scroll down to recent survey results then Historical Survey Data...

http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php