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The TOP is IN !


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#11 fib_1618

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 06:51 PM

All were/are talking this is different this time etc. New 1990's new 1982. I have never seen such stupidity in all my life. But not ONE of this come out hard and strong on a move before it happens. This is bar none the worst forum out there for the initiated or inexperienced. I would never recommend this place to a newbie.

Way to insult the whole community there Vic...and STILL you continue to make contributions to the board!

Geez....

Meanwhile, the market just tripped on a loose shoelace today...we'll probably be back at new price highs sometime next week.

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#12 pdx5

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 06:54 PM

Buying the dip here! IMHO this does not look like top for 2013.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#13 Rite01

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 07:42 PM

The last 2 times the SPX made an ALL TIME HIGH, THEN CLOSED DOWN MORE THAN 1% off that high?

10/11/2007

03/24/2000

and TODAY !!



If this was a top, then it would be first out of those three when we still had a ZIRP...



One important ingredient missing.

The AAII weekly sentiment poll not calling for major top here. Last weeks 38.5% Bullish reading at a time when equity markets making all time daily highs means itís no where near signaling for major market high. Look at the Bullish 2000 and 2007 readings.

#14 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 07:55 PM

Mr T. I have some issues on the monthly chart that I have never seen resolved in a major top like 2000 or 2007, 3 of them do not jive throw in AD and make it 4. I can see us taking out the weekly signal low though, again es1573.75. Es already generated lower targets tonight posted on blog.

After this little dip happening now in ahrs probably try for pivot area and fall short es 1665 is Piv. until the morning.


Futures Gappy and unstable

They are rolling into JITTER MODE....

We are headed for VOLATILITY CITY....

P, I know you see what I'm talking about...

This is going to get Scary before it's over....

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 May 2013 - 08:03 PM.

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#15 K Wave

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 08:10 PM

It is way too early to call the top we just saw THE top. But with the Dollar looking ready to launch imminently, and Bonds looking a bit shaky, something unexpected could be brewing... And we did get summation turned down today, so to say that it is impossible that we just saw some sort of major top is also perhaps premature. The complete reversal A/D action today has my hackles up saying that perhaps this sell-off was perhaps different than the other one day wonders to the downside that have been immediately bought into thus far. But let's see if bears can even get any follow through first, at least past the 20 day MA before we start talking about THE top.

Edited by K Wave, 22 May 2013 - 08:11 PM.


#16 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 08:14 PM

The futures are on the verge of a violent crash tonight... Hourly Swing low on ESM was BROKEN ON VOLUME... That is 1346.50, it is going to be tested...

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 May 2013 - 08:17 PM.

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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#17 MikeyG

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 08:18 PM

The futures are on the verge of a violent crash tonight...



Normally, I am dismissive of crash calls...

But in this current environment it's possible as long as yields do not plummet...

Edited by MikeyG, 22 May 2013 - 08:19 PM.


#18 CLK

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 08:34 PM

The last 2 times the SPX made an ALL TIME HIGH, THEN CLOSED DOWN MORE THAN 1% off that high?

10/11/2007

03/24/2000

and TODAY !!


Hey SEMI, you have been good timing some of these end moves, but the monthly candle is obvious that this was some sort of topping process many days ago. Tops are a process, impossible to perfectly time a monthly top, but most of this Crew around here saying ignorant things all the way through this morning.

All were/are talking this is different this time etc. New 1990's new 1982. I have never seen such stupidity in all my life. But not ONE of this come out hard and strong on a move before it happens. This is bar none the worst forum out there for the initiated or inexperienced. I would never recommend this place to a newbie. This is not gonna go straight down of course, but you mark it 845 RUT hit +- 3 months, and still hold for a red May candle very possible RUT. I have traded SO many 5 minute charts like this RUT daily, it may even retest highs (or not) no way to know for sure, but when this gets going, it will go down so much more than you think is possible, it might do it slow or fast, who knows.




Semi,

You can mark this down, this is not a top like 2000 or 2007.

I cannot believe one down day and bears that have been wrong for months think they finally see some light.
If you know how to hedge properly, it does not matter what happens, my 401k and trading position are covered.

Even if we filled the Jan. gap, all the losses the bears have realized would not be made back due to the fact they cannot
justify putting half or all their account at risk to try and recover the lost money. I've been there many times. But the
emotional victory to be able to say how wrong the bulls were to have not seen it coming may be worth something.

#19 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 09:17 PM

You ain't talking to me with your bears been wrong for months comments...

I am on record here all this year including this on 3/2 and repeated again as recently as 5/3

Runaway Parabola


So you can say I am fundamentally a bear, you cannot say I was bearish on the market.

Remember, I insisted that 954.00 RUT, the 3/15 high, would be tested, even when it dropped under 900.
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#20 nimblebear

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 09:18 PM

I had this great post ready to go this am, before the market turned tail. I was distracted, and so it never got posted. It was mostly about Ben's persistent bubble blowing, and that some day, when he was forced to take the spiked with grain alcohol 190 proof punch bowl away, there would simply be no bid under the market. So Im writing something different. Thus far, here is what Ben has destroyed that ain't never coming back, no matter what anyone does: 1) First and foremost, he's completely and utterly destroyed forever, fractional reserve banking. Its gone. Ka-poof. What's currently left is a figment of some former banker's imagination. The industry has no shred of cred left. What replaces it is anyone's guess at the moment. Not sure this is a bad thing or if its by design. 2) He utterly destroyed a consumer's ability to save, and ability to discern value. Savings are gone. Sure there are dollars on deposit, or under mattresses, but we now have 3 generations, who have lost all concept of what it means to save, why that's integrally important to EVERY and ANY well functioning society. 3) The market no longer has a viable or meaningful price/risk signals. Those are gone. When the spreads between "junk" and the safety of government bonds no longer are at a level that represents to most, what 'risk' is, then you do not have anywhere close to a normal and healthy functioning market. People can no longer determine what is truly risky, and certainly no one is getting close to being appropriately compensated for 'risk.' 4) Bernanke, and all central banks, have perpetuated and magnified beyond all comprehension, the ability for derivatives to so proliferate the financial system, that it is now IMPOSSIBLE to ever unwind them. This is what happens when you attempt to use monetary policy to over manage and compensate for a healthy functioning capitalist structure. ZIRP is not a policy. Its a death trap. People just dont grasp the concept of interest rates at all. Bernanke would have you believe he is the '*******' of such, but make no mistake, he's been on a fool's errand. 5) Destruction of hope. The President's mantra more than 5 years ago was a message that seemed to resonate with an entire segment of the country's population. Bernanke destroyed all sense of hope, not just for the millions who remain jobless, or the millions more who remain part time permanent 'employed', but for all the generations after the boomers, who now see the stock market for the casino it has been for more than 10 years running, targeted by monetary policy, and equally the bond market which he has single-handedly distorted to the point that its doubtful government issued bonds will exist as a functioning financial mechanism much beyond this decade. When you have someone like Bill Gross persistently in public angst over what he has openly termed a bond bubble, you know the public statements understate the magnitude of the disaster bond issuers face. Will mainstream former 'savers' ever have any hope of obtaining reasonable level of interest on their money ? Will bond issuers ever have hope, that the debt will ever be re-paid ? Will bond buyers, ever have hope of being reasonably compensated for their risk of buying debt ? Will bank savers, who are by law unsecured creditors, ever come back to a banking system who's entire concept was based on a simple little word called 'trust' ? A lot has been destroyed by Bernanke, who was somehow bequeathed unimaginable power, where no other Fed board member could ever say truly what he or she thought. If this is a man who truly wants to 'step aside' now, or 'step away' from the disastrous mess he has created, and not just in our country but in all of Europe, and many other lessor known geographies, what we have in our midst is nothing more than a coward. Someone so hell bent, and so unwilling to acknowledge he has made any mistake, and so willing to not change course, and attempt to make meaningful changes in direction, started by his predecessor, Alan Greedspam, then what we have is a complete coward, who is now shirking his duties, responsibilities, even moral obligations, and simply handing the mess he created over to someone else to somehow 'fix.' Shame on Ben Bernanke, shame on the people who allowed, endorsed, capitulated, or any number of lame [bleeep] so called 'leaders of the free world' in not standing up for what is right, true, and most of all, a courageous act that is worthy of the citizens who truly make up this country, and other countries, who are still now somehow completely beholden to corporations or the rich elitists who make my, and everyone's stomach turn. If this comes anywhere close to marking a top, even if not a market top, but a signaling of a market turn, then it will be poetic justice for the recrimination and rebuke of one Ben Bernanke, the serial bubble blower, who deserves nothing less than a hot place in hades.
OTIS.