Jump to content



Photo

seasonal weak time of the year


  • Please log in to reply
97 replies to this topic

#91 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:13 PM

agree senor nothing proven yet, yes the market is capable of rallying no significant resistance taken out yet. i dont see new lows either, but i am open to it if we dont take out 1300 soon , then a pullback is in order dharma

#92 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,900 posts

Posted 22 July 2013 - 08:21 AM

Looks like a norte breakout in gold and silver to start the week, there is resistance at 1325-1330, norte of there and this is muy likely a daily tres wave Enjoy BSing away Senor

#93 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:24 AM

hgnsi=-41.3%
market vane =42%
seems sentiment figures are @suicidal levels for the bullish side of the story
gdx rises above its 50 day ma
abe won last night in a landslide. seems the japanese are all for debasement
meanwhile the fed continues to talk out of both sides of its mouth. the epiphany will occur the fed "can check out , but they can never leave"
i expect this rally to be larger than any of the preceding rallies. however , new lows still cannot be ruled out.
that being said. i am playing the rally .
i think the 4.3yr cycle lows are in . the lows may be tested. however, looking @ the 76 lows, it was a v and the market never looked back and 2 sentiment being so lopsided its hard to imagine that the lows have not been seen
on that note http://kingworldnews...N...$1,300.html

this may be no surprise to some http://www.arabianmo...-yuan-currency/

dharma

#94 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 22 July 2013 - 11:34 AM

as evidenced by the suicidal sentiment readings, the dumb money continued to short this thing all the way down. there could be a memorable short squeeze in play. above 1350 could be the # which indicates the lows are in. in which case the decline for wave 2 will not produce new lows. but a higher low. now if the market can produce higher lows and higher highs, then we have a reversal of the trend also, i am using 76 as a map, we are in a time period, if the analogy holds true for the market to have mark up dharma

#95 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 23 July 2013 - 10:15 AM

observations: comex inventories of physical gold are declining to very low levels. = not much physical around the gofo for 1-2-3 months remain in backwardation for a record 11 days. =the present supply of physical gold is scarce the indian govt has taken the largest buyers of physical gold out of the market by placing a ban on buying, importation, and exorbitant taxes on gold before the ban. this is normally the low period for buying gold in india anyway. buy it does change the supply side of the equation the same folks who didnt get long @the 08 lows are still not long, and my guess is this train leaves w/o them hgnsi =-43.3 market vane =45% up 3 the dumb money= the large/small specs are carrying large short positions. the gold community is broke, wiped out. , demoralized, dazed and confused etc etc. so the only ones to be pressed are the dumb money. most put on their positions @or near the lows, they will 1st be encouraged to add and then dump. it seems to me this leg has higher to go. the key is the lack of physical dharma you say that, and i can call my dealer and get physical delivered???! true, there is a bit of a wait ,, but it can happen. but in size there is limited supply as exemplified by the gofo and comex dwindling supplies. i believe that is what is in play here. yes, giving abe/kuroda the upper house in japan will be a factor, but the immediate pressure is from dwindling physical supplies dharma keep in mind the gld is owned and run by the banksters. so the gold gets coughed up by the gld and disappears

Edited by dharma, 23 July 2013 - 10:18 AM.


#96 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 24 July 2013 - 10:52 AM

gofo remains in backwardation for 1-2-3 months. which, if there wasnt a shortage of physical would be to short spot and buy 1-2-3 months out and make money as the spread narrows. its still not happening which means to me prices have to go higher to flush the physical out of someones hands. yesterday the hourly charts were overbought and diverging. working out today, and i would guess tomorrow too i have turns fri/monday. so, i look for this correction to be short in time. i do think the bears get flushed. small/large specs are considered dumb money and they are the big shorts. the gold community is broke, disillusioned, and mostly out. hgnsi=-23.3% still negative market vane =45% as you would suspect , the sentiment #s are improving w/the rally. but still negative for hgnsi. i dont think i can draw conclusions as to is the bottom in or not , probably until october. the way the broads keep rallying day after day, and coming into crash season, for me all bets are off. we only have shadows of markets, the artists have gotten fat paint brushes and paint everything in sight. zero interest rates have an effect on the economy. sure it keeps borrowing costs low, but there are other consequences if you bottom line the whole thing =its all about survival. the usa will never renege on its debt. it cant pay its debt but it can debase it away. its why the fed is stuck in hotel california. "such a lovely place" other countries on the hand , do not have the reserve currency , one by one the mounting financial problems will become insurmountable. shenzo abe won a huge election , now his plan of debasing the yen can be put in full swing. cost push inflation will be coming to japan here, we will get stagflation. dharma those touting silver, and i know silver is going to have a huge move, had better not fall in love and be very fast. everyone holding silver is betting on the greater fool theory. no cb holds silver. everyone holding silver is looking to see when the other guy blinks

Edited by dharma, 24 July 2013 - 10:53 AM.


#97 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 24 July 2013 - 01:53 PM

tomorrow is gold option expiration. lower prices will not bring out physical supply so w/ gold being up 11 out of 12 gofo days , i suspect once the option expiration is out of the way we resume our upward path. it could have been 5 waves up . i have fri/mon as turn date. dharma

#98 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 25 July 2013 - 10:27 AM

gofo for 1-2-3 months still negative. hgnsi =+3.3 well what do you know? 1331 50ma. today is gold options expiration. growth in china is 7% now how will that card be played????? is the glass 1/2 full or 1/2 empty. obviously 7% is the envy of the rest of the world. its about perception not reality. just as ben layed the taper talk on the markets, and they all tanked. how will the info on china be presented???? markets today are played like a fiddle . @ some point reality will trump perception then its game on we are however, a few years away from that. so play on! dharma