97 replies to this topic

[Lemming]

Tria, You may need to calibrate the start time of the cycle. I noticed that the start time shifted toward the end of 2009 (check the 2007-2009 chart). It may have done it again now. -Lemming

[tria]

Tria,

You may need to calibrate the start time of the cycle. I noticed that the start time shifted toward the end of 2009 (check the 2007-2009 chart). It may have done it again now.

-Lemming

Meaning what Lemming in simple terms. Has the cycle already bottomed a bit earlier or when is it ideally due to bottom next?
If you pinpoint the last 3 cycle lows time frames will help me understand what you are suggesting.
Thank you,
-tria

[dharma]

this is a 4 part technical discussion on gold
part 4
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-4.html
part 3
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-3.html
part 2
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-2.html
part 1
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-1.html

dharma

[wxman]

Thank you, Dharma, for these excellent articles
Jeff

this is a 4 part technical discussion on gold
part 4
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-4.html
part 3
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-3.html
part 2
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-2.html
part 1
http://blogs.stockch...old-part-1.html

dharma

[dharma]

ism showed manufacturing contracting. preliminary #s showed a weak jobs report, then the report came out and voila the dow is +150 for the average guy, he is struggling to keep above water, and in todays magic world it is all good hgnsi- -30 market vanes bullish consensus 45% still @an extreme end of the spectrum india raised taxes on gold 2% to 8% i lived there when gold was illegal, it was smuggled in. if the demand is there, folks will do what they have to. the fact is this is the weak demand part of the year. china is closed 3 days next week. so, caution is warranted the W in gold is not a valid pattern until it is triggered . waiting on the market, but i am getting on w/my life. this is ust a part of what i do dharma

[dougie]

http://thefundamenta.....amental View)

[senorBS]

ism showed manufacturing contracting.
preliminary #s showed a weak jobs report, then the report came out and voila the dow is +150
for the average guy, he is struggling to keep above water, and in todays magic world it is all good
hgnsi- -30
market vanes bullish consensus 45%
still @an extreme end of the spectrum
india raised taxes on gold 2% to 8% i lived there when gold was illegal, it was smuggled in. if the demand is there, folks will do what they have to. the fact is this is the weak demand part of the year. china is closed 3 days next week. so, caution is warranted
the W in gold is not a valid pattern until it is triggered . waiting on the market, but i am getting on w/my life. this is ust a part of what i do
dharma

I like what I see here, silver is the one to focus on and Senor muy likes the waves there, we see if his eyes are working

BSing away

Senor

[dharma]

approaching the time period that my work shows as time for a trend change. does that mean the market cant make new lows for the move? these dates are not brick walls, they are time frames , based on past market action where the time for a trend change should take place. sometimes other factors come into play. but, i like what i see, so far it is indicative of bottoming action china markets are closed for the next 3 days. i do like this quote "The dumping recently of holdings in gold exchange-traded products by overseas investors may not prove to be a wise move." -Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association, June 10, 2013 sentiment still @extremes. the biz cycle doesnt top out for 2 more years. i didnt become attracted to gold because of qe , i became attracted to gold because of the unsustainable levels of debt. pay or renege. bottom line. dharma

[dharma]

in january of 80 gold topped. in 81 the bonds put in a head of an inverse h&s pattern. the right shoulder was 84 the trade was short gold, long bonds, it worked to perfection . until about 2k then gold bottomed. now we have this pattern present in the bonds.http://graceland-updates.com/images/stories/13june/2013jun11bond1.png and gold ending its 75-76 bear market. the 75-76 bear was 20 months. which is about the length of this present bear. in spite of all the chatter, rising rates are gold friendly. it wasnt volker raising rates that killed the gold bull. we are about to embark on a period of rising rates and stagflation after 2015. when i entered the gold trade there was no qe, it hadnt been created yet. i entered the trade because of the trend of unsustainable debt. and that is still the trade. w/fractional reserve banking, the banks viability will come into question. in those days, of the 30s folks stuffed their mattress' w/cash. after 15 stagflation will be the name of the game. much like 78-80 dharma

Edited by dharma, 11 June 2013 - 09:45 AM.

[Lemming]

Tria,

You may need to calibrate the start time of the cycle. I noticed that the start time shifted toward the end of 2009 (check the 2007-2009 chart). It may have done it again now.

-Lemming

Meaning what Lemming in simple terms. Has the cycle already bottomed a bit earlier or when is it ideally due to bottom next?
If you pinpoint the last 3 cycle lows time frames will help me understand what you are suggesting.
Thank you,
-tria

Sorry Tria. I didn't have a particular set of lows in mind. It's just that when a cycle starts fizzling, it may be time to wait for the next significant rally or decline to "restart" the cycle's engine.

-Lemming