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Did today mark bottom in COAL or are they all BK?


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#1 viccarter

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Posted 24 June 2013 - 04:58 PM

Inquiring minds want to know. Opinions welcome.

The WLT energy story just is amazing to me. YOU CANNOT BLAME IT ON NATTY SHALE RESERVES! That cat was outta the bag in May 2011, but they bid it over 140. Now it $10. There is now one significant thing that has changed fundamentally from then to now. Nothing new in shale plays, or gas in storage issues.

If you ever had a doubt how ignorant those hedge funds and people up there on wall street are, just look at that chart. Naw I'm not saying anything about TA here, that stock was trending up until it blew off. What I am saying is that the big money is so dumb they can't price something right between 140 and 10. The fundamentals were the same and the outlook the same. Everything could have been priced in in May 2011 to the extent there was some risk in the stock (which there obviously was)

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Edited by viccarter, 24 June 2013 - 05:01 PM.


#2 diogenes227

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Posted 24 June 2013 - 11:15 PM

And last week Morgan Stanley reiterated a buy on WLT that caused it to surge as presumably they put their clients in between 12.36 and 13.67. Maybe they were giving their clients the shaft to try to stop the free fall. Sorry, MS clients, the free fall in the coal stocks is across the board as natural gas continues to kill the commodity's demand.

These coals stocks are a favorite short because this is an industry past its time with a pack of analysts all living in the last century and run by managements that will sacrifice all shareholders' equity to try to save their own butts. Patriot Coal is already in bankruptcy, it appears JRCC can't be far behind, followed by ACI and ANR and now WLT looks to be diving down the into the dead-money grave.

Here's a look at the biggie in the sector. It'll probably be the last to die but, it's dying too. Nine years of investment lost and now all of it is overhead resistance (geez, it that one of the biggest head-and-shoulders in history?). Short the bounces, take profits on new lows (there'll be plenty of them).

http://stockcharts.c...72132972156.png

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