38 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

It's rare having 8 or more up-days in a row.

Following a major bottom or correction, this may indicate strength of the recovery. Nearing a peak or new high, it may indicate an imminent mean reversion. The last time this happened (also on declining volume) was during the same 4th of July period 2 years ago (6/27/2011 - 7/7/2011).





It's also rare, if ever, to see a run-up built on as many Doji with gaps. To me, this is a setup for disaster. While I don't know for sure when anything's going to happen, Friday's Hanging Man (red circle) may be a good start. The confirmation required may come as a gap-down and/or a black Marubozu on Monday.

Edited by TechMan, 07 July 2013 - 11:27 AM.

[diogenes227]

Posted this in another thread yesterday:

The NDX is up eight days in a row. With one exception in the past three years, whenever it was up five or more consecutive days and had a down day/days, it almost immediately wiped out the down and made a new high for the move.

If history repeats (likely) the inevitable dip that's coming (probably tomorrow) will be just a dip with at least another high afterwards (see late July last year on the chart). The disaster comes later (see after late July last year on the chart). As for the current spatter of doji days, maybe that is a hint it could be different this time.

Good luck and good trading.

Edited by diogenes227, 07 July 2013 - 12:59 PM.

[TechMan]

Thanks for the info, diogenes227. Gotta run, but quickly... The significant difference may be that it's no where near as rare having 5 consecutive up-days. The NDX has had only 11 periods of 8 or more consecutive up-days since 1997. And, only 3 of them have ever gone more than 8 straight sessions. All 3 occurred during the initial QE and the pre QE2 announcement/hinting periods of 2009 and 2010. I'd assume 8 is the limit without additional CB interferences. Good trading. More later...

[prognosticator]

Thanks for the info, diogenes227.

Gotta run, but quickly...

The significant difference may be that it's no where near as rare having 5 consecutive up-days.

The NDX has had only 11 periods of 8 or more consecutive up-days since 1997. And, only 3 of them have ever gone more than 8 straight sessions. All 3 occurred during the initial QE and the pre QE2 announcement/hinting periods of 2009 and 2010. I'd assume 8 is the limit without additional CB interferences.

Good trading.

More later...

Tech Man,

You are indeed an oracle. Your posts are prescient. Thank you. Q's to 65 lalala

[da_cheif]

It's rare having 8 or more up-days in a row.

Following a major bottom or correction, this may indicate strength of the recovery. Nearing a peak or new high, it may indicate an imminent mean reversion. The last time this happened (also on declining volume) was during the same 4th of July period 2 years ago (6/27/2011 - 7/7/2011).





It's also rare, if ever, to see a run-up built on as many Doji with gaps. To me, this is a setup for disaster. While I don't know for sure when anything's going to happen, Friday's Hanging Man (red circle) may be a good start. The confirmation required may come as a gap-down and/or a black Marubozu on Monday.

RARE???........THE epicenter of primary wave 3 up is a once in a lifetime event......its gonna scare the crap outta you......675.0n0 n how rare is that.......

[pdx5]

Tech Man,

You are indeed an oracle. Your posts are prescient. Thank you. Q's to 65 lalala

Indeed! I second that motion....!

[TechMan]

Thanks, pdx5 & prognosticator. Let's see if we'd get that confirmation on Monday first.

Meanwhile, we still have the "DAX WATCH" tonight.

The DAX is one of the few inter-market major indices that has had a highly positive correlation with the SPX. They're virtually walking hand in hand. However, over the past 3 sessions, the DAX has lost nearly 2% while the SPX has stayed unchanged. How the DAX trades in the next two sessions while we close for the 4th of July will be instructive.

As its 200-day SMA continues to render solid support, it would seem as though a bounce is due. If not, then...

[bigbud]

what I like about Techman, is that there always is an observation Not just a guru-statement saying we are going up or down

[bigbud]

my observation for Norway is that the number of issues above 200MA is showing weakness for the fourth time since 2009 (once a year it seems)
So is it a buying opportunity, or a warning of more weakness to come?



My analysis can be compressed into claiming that the rally up from April was too short, and the recent retrace too deep... to be bullish. My bias is for a shoulder and a lower low this summer


The Norwegian market normally correlates pretty good with US, so I expect a similar scenario for SPX

[da_cheif]

what I like about Techman, is that there always is an observation
Not just a guru-statement saying we are going up or down

ya....but are you making any money.......