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Snoozer (what day is it) we all knew this


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#1 viccarter

viccarter

    TRIN_Rida

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 02:46 PM

As to the GOOG nonsense and everything else. Do not let this discourage you as an index trader. Just FYI my RUT hourly is still in SELL. I posted an quarter entry for you real time yesterday morning (a NON DAY basis entry BTW). We were above 1050 TF. Plenty of chances to take 4 or 5 or 6 handles out of this for little risk. We all knew it was a Friday coming up. You had just as good a chance to make $ on the short as long side y'day when I told you. Better short. How u manage is up to you. I'm not gonna get into some wishy washy mess where I'm saying one thing and a few hours later something else. I short in quarter chunks, I'm not gonna post everytime I close and readjust. You get a plan, have a thesis and then manage it. You either think we'll blow off here or you don't. Even if it does and you have the short thesis, you can still manage . Yesterday was bearish, bottom line. It may take several more. I read that thread about 7 sentinels, and I've always had a lot of respect for him and think he's good. But to sum up the issue is this: breadth divergence. Usually it works OK. A few misses or if you ignore the first couple of divergences, one will hit for you. Now I am talking shorting the long side. What is happening is that his system is a milt-tiered system of breadth divergence. Right now it is not working. We have some members of the community that will say "look here" the CUM ADV-DEC line is this and that, so breadth is not diverging it is confirming. Nobody is right and nobody is wrong. Sometimes and very often the former system will be outperforming, and right now the latter is outperforming but just look back at Oct 2012 and many other examples spring 2011 where the latter failed. Spring 2011 was a time when you could trade off oscillating breadth, in other words when the breadth became to OB you could fade it. This trend and the trend from Feb/Mar 2012 has been less so, but at the same time we have not got so OB on our breadth depending on which indicators you look at. I am a LESS a cumulative breath person MORE a RATE OF CHANGE breadth person. I want to look a factors concerning how is breadth on this day compared to the trend from yesterday or the day before. Back to breadth divergence. Just watch it on a 5 minute or 15 minute chart. Plot the ADV-DEC line and maybe you can put whatever oscillator or MA on it that you like. Now short the divergences when the market is up hi and see how well that works for you. Some trades are going to be great and many not so great. I am not saying that one could not even put together a profitable system doing this, but it often doesn't work. We can extrapolate this to a longer term chart, although it will work better because not as much noise, but still see that it often doesn't work. Such is the fallacy of breadth divergence or confirmation if you will and it is not a holy grail. It is however a important factor that should be analyzed and is the primary base for a trading thesis. Right now we are on a SELL on my hourly RUT. How about if I told you the last 4 sells were failures? In fact I was long during some of them based on other reasons. The fact remains that almost all sell and gaps occur when the present conditions are true. The end result is you must be flexible. I will look to these charts again and the will work, perhaps the current one.

Edited by viccarter, 19 July 2013 - 02:50 PM.