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seasonal weak time of the year


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#1 dharma

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 09:47 AM

hgnsi =+3.3%
market vane=44%
aem and gg reported and as expected they missed, but the stocks were not taken to the woodshed

i 1st went to india in 1980 . there were 81/2 rps to the dollar. this chart shows what has happened to their currency.
http://www.graceland...2013jul26r1.PNG
the east indians have been the largest gold dealers in the world. through their govt and the help of the banksters. the indians have been taken out of the buy side of the equation. i think this is significant. sure smuggling will ramp up , w/its usual breathtaking premiums, but, the fact that this has occurred, can be a game changer. in 80 volker continued to raise rates. it didnot slow the rise in the pms. it wasnt until the banksters w/help from the exchange members changed the rules on slver =no buying contracts on the comex, that the price tanked. that rule remained in effect for several weeks. silver was locked limit down every day. the back of the silver market was broken. then buying was allowed. the shorts (banksters and exchange members walked away w/huge profits) the hunts were sent to the cleaners
looking @the rupee chart its easy to see why they would want to own gold
next week is the fed. talk all they want . watch what they do. they are not going anywhere
gold is range bound until it has a couple of closes above 1350
a better time of year is right around the bend
dharma

#2 dharma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 09:32 AM

there are couple of things concerning me: 1- taking the indian gold buyers out of the equation . india has @1st raised taxes on buying gold 2, 4.6,8% . then they made it illegal to buy gold. recently they passed 20% of purchases have to be used for exports. got to hand it to the banksters. 2-no intermarket divergences . no rsi or any oscillator divergences. what i do like: 1 volume came in , indicating capitulation as the market fell, @the lows, volume dried up 2 dollar has formed an expanding 5 point triangle, i have seen these stretch to 7 points. . but, if not then it could represent a top. 3 the gold market got oversold and sentiment went to an extreme. 4 the market has not realized the fed is trapped. they are in hotel calif. the fed will not remove its market support. they will maintain their presence. watch what they do. 5 no oscillator divergences @ the lows then the market , so far, has not been able to take out key resistance. i want to see a couple of closes over 1350. and yet the miners are leading, which is a good sign. several majors reported horrible earnings. and they didnt go down much, but rallied instead, a sign the lows could very well be in. we are heading into a more favorable time for the metals and crash season for the broads @ this juncture i give the odds 50/50 for the lows being in the rear view mirror. other commodities have been taking it on the chin. all that being said. government debt world wide keeps rising. the fundamental back drop for gold looks better and better. dharma

#3 stubaby

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:03 AM

there are couple of things concerning me:
1- taking the indian gold buyers out of the equation . india has @1st raised taxes on buying gold 2, 4.6,8% . then they made it illegal to buy gold. recently they passed 20% of purchases have to be used for exports. got to hand it to the banksters.
2-no intermarket divergences . no rsi or any oscillator divergences.
what i do like:
1 volume came in , indicating capitulation as the market fell, @the lows, volume dried up
2 dollar has formed an expanding 5 point triangle, i have seen these stretch to 7 points. . but, if not then it could represent a top.
3 the gold market got oversold and sentiment went to an extreme.
4 the market has not realized the fed is trapped. they are in hotel calif. the fed will not remove its market support. they will maintain their presence. watch what they do.
5 no oscillator divergences @ the lows
then
the market , so far, has not been able to take out key resistance. i want to see a couple of closes over 1350.
and yet the miners are leading, which is a good sign. several majors reported horrible earnings. and they didnt go down much, but rallied instead, a sign the lows could very well be in.
we are heading into a more favorable time for the metals and crash season for the broads
@ this juncture i give the odds 50/50 for the lows being in the rear view mirror.
other commodities have been taking it on the chin.
all that being said. government debt world wide keeps rising. the fundamental back drop for gold looks better and better.
dharma



Dharma:

FWIW, I am not convinced "the low" is in, however, the "set-up" is in place, especially if we move higher in the ST for a favorable resolution down the line.

HUI: Ever since the "Gap" last Monday that moved above the 50-Day MA - the 50-Day has been tested from above twice - and each time it has held. This ST move is morphing into and IT move - one more high here (+263.04) in the range 275-285 and I can count 5 Waves up off the low - next up should be a "scary" pullback (probably to the 50% FIB minimum and probably more) - this to be followed to another strong move up towards 300-320. That should relieve all the downside momentum and the set-up will be in place for new lows, thereafter. The higher we can move here the better chance the new lows will carry divergences across multiple time frames.

GOLD: should follow HUI and take out 1,350 - 1,425 or so looks to be a potential top

SILVER: the weakest here - could see 21-22 at the top


stubaby B)

#4 dharma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:49 AM

there are couple of things concerning me:
1- taking the indian gold buyers out of the equation . india has @1st raised taxes on buying gold 2, 4.6,8% . then they made it illegal to buy gold. recently they passed 20% of purchases have to be used for exports. got to hand it to the banksters.
2-no intermarket divergences . no rsi or any oscillator divergences.
what i do like:
1 volume came in , indicating capitulation as the market fell, @the lows, volume dried up
2 dollar has formed an expanding 5 point triangle, i have seen these stretch to 7 points. . but, if not then it could represent a top.
3 the gold market got oversold and sentiment went to an extreme.
4 the market has not realized the fed is trapped. they are in hotel calif. the fed will not remove its market support. they will maintain their presence. watch what they do.
5 no oscillator divergences @ the lows
then
the market , so far, has not been able to take out key resistance. i want to see a couple of closes over 1350.
and yet the miners are leading, which is a good sign. several majors reported horrible earnings. and they didnt go down much, but rallied instead, a sign the lows could very well be in.
we are heading into a more favorable time for the metals and crash season for the broads
@ this juncture i give the odds 50/50 for the lows being in the rear view mirror.
other commodities have been taking it on the chin.
all that being said. government debt world wide keeps rising. the fundamental back drop for gold looks better and better.
dharma



Dharma:

FWIW, I am not convinced "the low" is in, however, the "set-up" is in place, especially if we move higher in the ST for a favorable resolution down the line.

HUI: Ever since the "Gap" last Monday that moved above the 50-Day MA - the 50-Day has been tested from above twice - and each time it has held. This ST move is morphing into and IT move - one more high here (+263.04) in the range 275-285 and I can count 5 Waves up off the low - next up should be a "scary" pullback (probably to the 50% FIB minimum and probably more) - this to be followed to another strong move up towards 300-320. That should relieve all the downside momentum and the set-up will be in place for new lows, thereafter. The higher we can move here the better chance the new lows will carry divergences across multiple time frames.

GOLD: should follow HUI and take out 1,350 - 1,425 or so looks to be a potential top

SILVER: the weakest here - could see 21-22 at the top


stubaby B)

this is week 15 from the lows. 15-21 weeks gold normally makes a low, so i am looking for a low soon. we are obviously having some trouble mounting over resistance here. i think this upcoming pullback will be revealing.
stubaby, not real sure what you are saying here. a-b-c up then new lows? clarify please

also on my radar is the 4yr cycle in the broad market. 3/09 was the last low, so any time now this market could top and then put in lows. unless of course the bernake fed has done away w/the 4yr cycle????????????!!!!
lots of cross currents. however, amidst this backdrop the fundamentals get better and better for gold.
dharma

#5 stubaby

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 12:40 PM

there are couple of things concerning me:
1- taking the indian gold buyers out of the equation . india has @1st raised taxes on buying gold 2, 4.6,8% . then they made it illegal to buy gold. recently they passed 20% of purchases have to be used for exports. got to hand it to the banksters.
2-no intermarket divergences . no rsi or any oscillator divergences.
what i do like:
1 volume came in , indicating capitulation as the market fell, @the lows, volume dried up
2 dollar has formed an expanding 5 point triangle, i have seen these stretch to 7 points. . but, if not then it could represent a top.
3 the gold market got oversold and sentiment went to an extreme.
4 the market has not realized the fed is trapped. they are in hotel calif. the fed will not remove its market support. they will maintain their presence. watch what they do.
5 no oscillator divergences @ the lows
then
the market , so far, has not been able to take out key resistance. i want to see a couple of closes over 1350.
and yet the miners are leading, which is a good sign. several majors reported horrible earnings. and they didnt go down much, but rallied instead, a sign the lows could very well be in.
we are heading into a more favorable time for the metals and crash season for the broads
@ this juncture i give the odds 50/50 for the lows being in the rear view mirror.
other commodities have been taking it on the chin.
all that being said. government debt world wide keeps rising. the fundamental back drop for gold looks better and better.
dharma



Dharma:

FWIW, I am not convinced "the low" is in, however, the "set-up" is in place, especially if we move higher in the ST for a favorable resolution down the line.

HUI: Ever since the "Gap" last Monday that moved above the 50-Day MA - the 50-Day has been tested from above twice - and each time it has held. This ST move is morphing into and IT move - one more high here (+263.04) in the range 275-285 and I can count 5 Waves up off the low - next up should be a "scary" pullback (probably to the 50% FIB minimum and probably more) - this to be followed to another strong move up towards 300-320. That should relieve all the downside momentum and the set-up will be in place for new lows, thereafter. The higher we can move here the better chance the new lows will carry divergences across multiple time frames.

GOLD: should follow HUI and take out 1,350 - 1,425 or so looks to be a potential top

SILVER: the weakest here - could see 21-22 at the top


stubaby B)

this is week 15 from the lows. 15-21 weeks gold normally makes a low, so i am looking for a low soon. we are obviously having some trouble mounting over resistance here. i think this upcoming pullback will be revealing.
stubaby, not real sure what you are saying here. a-b-c up then new lows? clarify please

also on my radar is the 4yr cycle in the broad market. 3/09 was the last low, so any time now this market could top and then put in lows. unless of course the bernake fed has done away w/the 4yr cycle????????????!!!!
lots of cross currents. however, amidst this backdrop the fundamentals get better and better for gold.
dharma



dharma:

Yep - a-b-c up then new lows (price lows for "the divergent low") - that's my primary "guesstimate", FWIW Silver lagging here - look at GSR - need to see Silver leading for the "Real" impulse UP, IMHO

stubaby B)

#6 dharma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 01:33 PM

stu, not so sure about that ! silver is more speculative. i dont think we are in the speculative phase yet. also, this bull has been different for silver, which so far has not taken out its 80 high. besides which the gold /silver ratio continues to blow out . silver did not perform well in the depression of the 30s , it was .22 oz. this crises may prove different for silver. although , i do think when fear of banks, fiats, politicians come into play, silver will perform better than gold for a period dharma

#7 dharma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 03:02 PM

http://rbth.asia/bus...gold_47997.html

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#8 dharma

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:47 AM

after 12-13 years of recording higher highs( has to be some kind of record) gold has taken a 21 month correction. i dont know if the lows are in or not. but , what i do know is the 60 yr cycle kicked off in the fall of 53 sending commodities on a bull market. it began in october of that year. so when october is in the rear view mirror , we will have a better idea of where we stand. having followed this cycle in the past, it is not out of the question that the late june lows were/will be the lows. several market measures, including sentiment were @ extremes seen @ lows. so, it is possible that those were the lows this week is action packed. lets see what effect it has on the gold market. in the mean time , the largest market, the bond market, is flirting w/its lows. this has to have the fed wearily watching. their statements will be designed to soothe the fears of the bond market. while @the same time trying to keep the dollar from hitting the skids. a tough balancing act dharma

#9 dharma

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 10:15 AM

there were many factors @ the 1179 lows that were saying this is it. however, there were no oscillator divergences or intermarket divergences. so, it is difficult to say definitively this was the bottom. also, there were some time factors as well as seasonal factors that were pointing to the end of june/beginning of july as the time for the bottom. the way i am reading the 4.3 year cycle is aug/sept for the low. so again no definitive time frame.
its still caution time , imo no significant resistance has been taken out.
hgnsi =13.4% the last time we saw this # was in 12 while gold was rallying
market vane =43%
the largest gold buyers in the world is india. after generations of watching fiat go down the toilet , the indians have realized the value of gold . then you have chidambaram come in raise import taxes from 2-4-6-8% then ban imports of gold altogether. gofo is still negative out to 3 months. however , taking india out of the equation , to my mind anyway, changes the equation in a big way. since july 22nd india says 0 imports of gold has entered india(of course smuggling is not an official statistic!). the banksters reach is far.
i 1st went to india in 80 there were 81/2 rps to the dollar . today the dollar is making new highs http://www.graceland...3july31rup1.PNG
of course the press sees no reason to buy the barbaric relic http://seekingalpha....as-its-downside
what will happen there. of course the premiums in india were high to begin w/ . my guess is if the demand is there . the gold will find its way over there. @the lows there was 800 tons of demand for gold. they were allotted 160 tons by the banksters
and so it goes.
dharma

#10 dharma

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 02:45 PM

hmmm! 50/50
http://zedlum.blogsp...-charts_27.html

dharma