36 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

Nice discussion, gents!

[MikeyG]

What rally are we are we talking here??? 4 points???

[SemiBizz]

not quite, 14 pts from the low at 1627 to the high of 1641. About 1/3 of the move down from the last peak at 1669. Yep, it only closed 4 pts higher, but that was just a snapshot in time.

[Echo]

Nice thread. Good discussions and explanations. Bravo! One point I will add. Fib, you are a closing price guy and drew you UTL off the Nov SPX lows as such and that line was broken yesterday. If you instead draw the UTL using the intraday price extremes, in this case the lows, we bounced off of that exactly this morning at the open. Made for a great trade selling my shorts and going long and later selling those for profits as well. Doc

[ogm]

August volume may be low, but still higher then July volume. Here is ES monthly for example.

I didn't see anyone object to what is starting to look like a low volume blow off July rally.

Edited by ogm, 29 August 2013 - 03:14 AM.

[fib_1618]

What rally are we are we talking here???
4 points???

No, it's something called "technical analysis" and how to use daily and intraday volume dynamics to a position a trade.

Fib, you are a closing price guy and drew you UTL off the Nov SPX lows as such and that line was broken yesterday. If you instead draw the UTL using the intraday price extremes, in this case the lows, we bounced off of that exactly this morning at the open.

For the purpose of this particular discussion, that of daily volume as it relates to chart violations, one should use the daily close in prices to match up the volume data precisely to ascertain strength or weakness. Using intraday price data is also valid method, especially when this same volume component either expands or contracts as it hits these same lines of support or resistance, and then either violates or finds pattern support.

The important thing here though is that you must be consistent when using this type of analysis. For example, it doesn't do any good to start with the closing price numbers and then extend a trendline out to capture those bars (or sticks) that were hit on an intraday basis. Tweaking support or resistance lines like this will more times than not give you bad information to work with and then losses occur, and usually so the very next trading day.

August volume may be low, but still higher then July volume.

And provided below is the cash SPX in which the article of which you provided made it's reference to.

Fib

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=2011-04-04&en=(today)&i=t00490365824&r=1377785372131.png

[fib_1618]

A saved chart of the monthly for better reference later on.

Fib