52 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

Good posts C & Z.

"If I can, and it's very possible, to double my money in a year or two in RE, with almost no risk, outside a couple thousand in property taxes,"
That will depend on your entry point. As Z says, unless you enter at the beginning of a bubble, and with minimum down payment, it will be highly unlikely.

Z is also right on about tenants. My father made living as a landlord, and that would be the last business I would get into, unless I want to buy a large rental property near a large university. Student tenants are less pain than others.

I began stock market investing in my early 20's. Now on Medicare, I am quite ahead of what I put in, but lot of it is tax deferred and so after I pay taxes, it may be 5-6% per year. I have bought dividend stocks when the rates were high, and SPX, and other stable sectors such as healthcare when there was a decent correction. In 2013 I was mostly in REITS. But I always sold out with a good double digit profit. Looking back, I am convinced to survive in trading/investing over lifetime, the secret is not having many losing trades. Buy when low, have patience of a stalking fox, and never ever hesitate to lock in good profits. One can not go broke taking double digit profits. You have no profit unless you sell.

As C said above, one has to be foolhardy to be long in this market more than 50% unless you are quite young.

N is right on about leverage. I got burned using margin but it was early in the game in my mid-20's and I learned my lessons quick.

There is no one method to make money in the stock market. You have to find what suits you best.

[zoropb]

Chief, Yes, yes, yes and yes! A few do... and your also correct about the one who runs this place. I have learned the hardest thing to do is listen and respect the trader who disagree's with you. EVEN WHEN HE OR SHE IS RIGHT! And your wrong... that is where I have grown the most.

And Z...

Very well put my friend...

Im a student, and have came to the realization that Im always going to be one. Now I can learn...

Good luck everyone this week and lets light this candle!!

O

Always good to learn new stuff O. never stop no one knows it all and you can only get better as long as you do not repeat the same mistakes. Those that think they know it all get a rude awakening. As I mentioned to you before all you got in this biz is probability and stops. If you can figure out where price triggers are for a turn and a stop to limit the risk to reward you will make money. Got to agree with Nav On all those points. It's what I use not saying it's the only way but it works for me. Nav I heard 5 different numbers from 5 different brokers. From the top not just any broker. I heard 1-6% so somewhere in there is the number. I guess it's like anything who you ask. Probably Fluid's study of it is probably right in the end of the 4%+-

Edited by zoropb, 08 September 2013 - 11:17 PM.

[Gary Smith]

No matter what kind of system one uses, the fact remains that 95% of all TRADERS lose money,

One of my friend runs a brokerage firm. He was saying the numbers are something like 99% traders lose money. 95% is a lie. Those who make lose it within a year or two. Only 1% really make it in the long run.

you can have a well tuned 80% system but there is still only a 5% chance you will survive

You are still obsessed with winning rate. It's not the winning rate that matters but the risk/reward of your traders. Unless you maximize your profits on those big swing moves, then odds are you will go broke in the long run.

Most folks are not well capitalized to trade futures. They use leverage and go broke. If you are well capitalized and use proper position sizing, you don't have to be Goldman, morgan or some e-wave/GANN elite to make money. TA is 90% bullsh^t. Develop very very simple price-based, price following methods and you will come out a winner. You will beat all the big TA gurus who wax eloquent, hands down.

Internet forums are always filled with bears, counter-trenders and folks trying to predict the future. All three are death recipe for a trader.

Great post NAV. Agree 110%.

[da_cheif]

the general rule in technical analysis????? lol ...what everybody knows is worthless ......and whoever wrote this knows nothing about TA >Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well. It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue. <

I know you have paying subs, which restricts you on how much you can reveal on a free site like this. But... with all due respect, you must have more in the TA tool box than two points on chart to justify your bullish stance.

KMB

Market timining has nothing to do with perception of the future or lines on a chart.......is mostly clx....ewave....fibonaci.....sentiment....the clock (cycles) and more more more

A Timely Check On The Stock Market Timers - Chicago Tribune
articles.chicagotribune.com › Featured Articles‎
Oct 22, 1989 - Timing is everything, especially when it comes to 190-point one-day tumbles in the Dow Jones industrial average.If you were a subscriber to ...

http://www.siliconin...?msgid=29101529

Edited by da_cheif, 09 September 2013 - 05:01 AM.

[CLK]

Z, I plan on just buying re at a big discount to tax value, and ones that don't need a lot of work. I know somone that just bought for 20k, fixed it up set it for 94k, and settled for 88k a year later, that one did need a lot of work, but that is why the 400% gain. I'm not much interested in rentals right now, and if later, only out in the county. Not quitting trading, but feel a need to diversify. Some people buy the wrong property and do get burned, so I know it is not 100% risk free. NAV, I don't know what well capitalized means, I have traded 150 round turn trades on $300 and not go broke and also traded 10k and lost it in a short time. If one needs 50k min to survive then I might as well stop now and look elsewhere. I agree on the price based system, there are chop zones to deal with occaisionally though. I think my whole point is the realization that there is a vast difference in failure rate between trading and most other ventures. Greater than 95% chance of losing at trading, I never heard of anyone that bought a property as an investment, not just chasing an inflated housing market, that lost most on the deal. Most do no worse than break even, even if it turns out a not so good deal.

[zoropb]

Z,

I plan on just buying re at a big discount to tax value, and ones that don't need a lot of work. I know somone that just
bought for 20k, fixed it up set it for 94k, and settled for 88k a year later, that one did need a lot of work, but that is why
the 400% gain. I'm not much interested in rentals right now, and if later, only out in the county. Not quitting trading,
but feel a need to diversify. Some people buy the wrong property and do get burned, so I know it is not 100% risk free.



NAV,

I don't know what well capitalized means, I have traded 150 round turn trades on $300 and not go broke
and also traded 10k and lost it in a short time. If one needs 50k min to survive then I might as well
stop now and look elsewhere. I agree on the price based system, there are chop zones to deal with
occaisionally though.


I think my whole point is the realization that there is a vast difference in failure rate between trading and
most other ventures. Greater than 95% chance of losing at trading, I never heard of anyone that bought a
property as an investment, not just chasing an inflated housing market, that lost most on the deal. Most do no worse
than break even, even if it turns out a not so good deal.

C. you got to be picky and go in at discount as you said but not what the tax value says, you can get burned in that. You absolutely have to know your market in and out. I never bought a property that I did not think it was at least 20% below market never what the tax value said. I knew going in I had little downside. You must know your local area avg. price the per capita of the area and stay on the lower end of those numbers and you will always make money. So, ok what you mention to do is one of my choices sweat equity. Nothing wrong with that but that has its own expertise and you can make a lot of money. Got to know your numbers backwards and forwards, just like in this biz. One mess up there is the difference between making money and not. I say this from a lot of experience. Could have termite damage, flood zone, could be under a toxic spot and lose all your money, also you underestimated the fix up etc. You got to check all these things. Once your armed with all this knowledge go get'em. That may calm you down for the trading and give you more patience it helped me.

[zoropb]

Had to ad one more thing C. Do not just buy it because it's 20% below market if that market is overvalued like the last fiasco. Again this goes under knowing your numbers. You got to know the avg. gain for your area for the past 100 years would be great but at least the last 50. If the current market is say 50% above that trend line like it was for most of the US then 20% below that your still going to get cooked or worse it becomes a mini Detroit where something is happening to the area and its toast. So know your long term average. Regression to the mean is really mean sometimes.

[zoropb]

One more C. learn every single permit requirement backwards and forwards, those inspectors can put a serious dent in your plans if you do not know that end of the biz too and those fines can be monsters. Did not happen to me but it almost did several times, talk about sweating bullets no it was sweat tomahawk missiles at times. I know of others that got nuked to the point they lost a lot on some projects or bankrupt. Do not get on their bad side. My wife would even go as far as bring them pastries some times. I remember one small beach housing project of some modern 3 story homes I designed and built with a crew that was almost not even approved (I sold that one in 90 days before the housing drop and a lovely profit) but ended up the main inspector was friendly to me and got it oked, sheesh was that close. Know your laws!

[andiron]

No matter what kind of system one uses, the fact remains that 95% of all TRADERS lose money,

One of my friend runs a brokerage firm. He was saying the numbers are something like 99% traders lose money. 95% is a lie. Those who make lose it within a year or two. Only 1% really make it in the long run.

you can have a well tuned 80% system but there is still only a 5% chance you will survive

You are still obsessed with winning rate. It's not the winning rate that matters but the risk/reward of your traders. Unless you maximize your profits on those big swing moves, then odds are you will go broke in the long run.

Most folks are not well capitalized to trade futures. They use leverage and go broke. If you are well capitalized and use proper position sizing, you don't have to be Goldman, morgan or some e-wave/GANN elite to make money. TA is 90% bullsh^t. Develop very very simple price-based, price following methods and you will come out a winner. You will beat all the big TA gurus who wax eloquent, hands down.

Internet forums are always filled with bears, counter-trenders and folks trying to predict the future. All three are death recipe for a trader.

trading well is more about human psychology and most are not equipped well...it is even more difficult when this is only source of income...
i agree majority of TA provides little reward (note to Techman )

[CLK]

Z, I am staying away from ground up projects, my goal is to do cash only deals on bank owned manufactured housing. Main concern on those is not too old and make sure no water leaks. I can talk to the lender to see what items have to be addressed for them to approve a loan for a buyer on one of them, can talk to the county inspector as well. Cash only gets a much better price and fast.