65 replies to this topic

[andr99]

Put/Call skyrocketing as we trade later into the day.

Shutdown now appears imminent. Neither side is yielding. And the fun is only starting , as its unlikely shutdown will be resolved before the debt ceiling.

Another big gap down tomorrow as realization sets in wouldn't be surprising at all.

They have time till midnight (tomorrow morning, here in europe, 6.00 a.m.) but I don't know if these hours that are left can effectively be used......could you enlight me please ?

Edited by andr99, 30 September 2013 - 03:19 PM.

[arbman]

I don't think there is anything as severe as the media wants everyone to believe. This govt shutdown doesn't mean much, really. They technically approved the spending already and this is about funding. It is not really a standoff, but more like a protest to make a point that the debt and spending are out of control...

[fib_1618]

Shutdown now appears imminent. Neither side is yielding. And the fun is only starting....

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1995-07-03&en=1996-04-01&i=p69858444470&a=317832205&r=1380573577812.png

[Dex]

RUT only down .04% - too much bear speak around here.

Shutdowns no big thing

http://www.washingto...how-they-ended/

[andr99]

I don't think there is anything as severe as the media wants everyone to believe. This govt shutdown doesn't mean much, really. They technically approved the spending already and this is about funding. It is not really a standoff, but more like a protest to make a point that the debt and spending are out of control...

well but if the last shutdown (in 1996) lasted 20 days.......where might the spx go in the next 20 days ?

BTW...I read now in a blog here, that effectively the time will be till midnight (I don' t remember the italian institutions ever working till midnight...which explains my previous question) so it might be a last minute decision. As actually a bear, if the shutdown takes place...it would be a nightmare for the bulls, I think, in the ST

ah....if previous shutdowns led to minor corrections...this time the situation might be different, imo

Edited by andr99, 30 September 2013 - 04:24 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Actually, most all the talk has been bullish, I guess given the chart evidence, since we're mostly bulls here, the shutdown is a lock !!

[fib_1618]

ah....if previous shutdowns led to minor corrections...this time the situation might be different, imo

As the chart above shows as one example, the last 17 US shutdowns of 3 days or more since 1976 all saw market rallies as clarity was provided.

This time will probably be no different given how deeply "oversold" we are right now, no less, option speculators are buying puts at a rate not seen since the June lows.

Fib

[andr99]

ah....if previous shutdowns led to minor corrections...this time the situation might be different, imo

As the chart above shows as one example, the last 17 US shutdowns of 3 days or more since 1976 all saw market rallies as clarity was provided.

This time will probably be no different given how deeply "oversold" we are right now, no less, option speculators are buying puts at a rate not seen since the June lows.

Fib

''le condizioni al contorno'' (the conditions at the margin) might be different and lead to a different solution of the equation. 1995 was a bit different I think. I guess the other times too.

[SemiBizz]

Well, I'm not the chart expert that Fib is, but I see a pattern here...

Originally called the BARF (Bump and Run Formation)




http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t62866824051&r=1380578685248$.png



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 30 September 2013 - 05:07 PM.

[ogm]

Shutdown now appears imminent. Neither side is yielding. And the fun is only starting....

Was the debt ceiling debate part of those shutdowns too ? If I remember correctly the chart of the previous debt ceiling debate in 2011 doesn't look so hot.

Also lets put this all into some perspective.