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October Games Starting A Day Early


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#41 fib_1618

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 05:16 PM

Was the debt ceiling debate part of those shutdowns too ?

1976 September 30 - October 11: Citing out of control spending, President Gerald Ford vetoed a funding bill for the United States Department of Labor and the United States Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), leading to a partial government shutdown. On 1 October, the Democratic-controlled Congress overrode Ford's veto but it took until 11 October for a continuing resolution ending funding gaps for other parts of government to became law.

1977 September 30 -October 13: The Democratic-controlled House continued to uphold the ban on using Medicaid dollars to pay for abortions, except in cases where the life of the mother was at stake. Meanwhile, the Democratic-controlled Senate pressed to loosen the ban to allow abortion funding in the case of rape or incest. A funding gap was created when disagreement over the issue between the houses had become tied to funding for the Departments of Labor and HEW, leading to a partial government shutdown. A temporary agreement was made to restore funding through 31 October 1977, allowing more time for Congress to resolve its dispute.

1977 October 31-November 9: The earlier temporary funding agreement expired. President Jimmy Carter signed a second funding agreement to allow for more time for negotiation.

1977 November 30-December 9: The second temporary funding agreement expired. The House held firm against against the Senate in its effort to ban Medicaid paying for the abortions of victims of statutory rape. A deal was eventually struck which allowed Medicaid to pay for abortions in cases resulting from rape, incest, or in which the mother's health is at risk.

1978 September 30 - October 18: Deeming them wasteful, President Carter vetoed a public works appropriations bill and a defense bill including funding for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Spending for the Department of HEW was also delayed over additional disputes concerning Medicaid funding for abortion.

1979 September 30 - October 12: Against the opposition of the Senate, the House pushed for a 5.5% pay increase for congress members and senior civil servants. The House also sought to restrict federal spending on abortion only to cases where the mother's life is in danger, while the Senate wanted to maintain funding for abortions in cases of rape and incest.

1981 November 20 - November 23: President Ronald Reagan pledged that he would veto any spending bill that failed to include at least half of the $8.4 billion in domestic budget cuts that he proposed. Although the Republican controlled Senate passed a bill that met his specifications, the Democratic House insisted on larger cuts to defense than Reagan wanted and for congressional and civil servant pay raises. A compromise bill fell $2 billion short of the cuts Reagan wanted, so Reagan vetoed the bill and shut down the federal government. A temporary bill restored spending through 15 December and gave Congress the time to work out a more lasting deal.

1982 September 30 - October 2: Congress passed the required spending bills a day late.

1982 December 17 - December 21: The Democratic controlled House and the Republican controlled Senate wished to fund jobs, but President Reagan vowed to veto any such legislation. The House also opposed plans to fund the MX missile. The shutdown ended after Congress abandoned their jobs plan, but Reagan was forced to yield on funding for both the MX and Pershing II missiles. He also accepted funding for the Legal Services Corporation, which he wanted abolished, in exchange for higher foreign aid to Israel.

1983 November 10 - November 14: The Democratic controlled House increased education funding, but cut defense and foreign aid spending, which led to a dispute with President Reagan. Eventually, the House reduced their proposed education funding, and also accepted funding for the MX missile. However, the foreign aid and defense cuts remained, and oil and gas leasing was banned in federal wildlife refuges. Abortion was also prohibited for being paid for with government employee health insurance.

1984 September 30 - October 3: The House wished to link the budget to both a crime-fighting package President Reagan supported and a water projects package he did not. The Senate additionally tied the budget to a civil rights measure designed to overturn Grove City v. Bell. Reagan proposed a compromise where he abandoned his crime package in exchange for Congress dropping theirs. A deal was not struck, and a three-day spending extension was passed instead.

1984 October 3 - October 5: The three-day spending extension expired, forcing a shutdown. Congress dropped their proposed water and civil rights packages, while President Reagan kept his crime package. Funding for aid to the Nicaraguan Contras was also passed.

1986 October 16 - October 18: A dispute over multiple issues between the Democratic controlled House and President Reagan and the Republican Senate forced a shutdown. The Democratic controlled House dropped many of their demands in exchange for a vote on their welfare package, and a concession of the sale of then-government-owned Conrail.

1987 December 18 - December 20: Democrats, who now controlled both the House and the Senate, opposed funding for the Contras, and wanted the Federal Communications Commission to begin reenforcing the "Fairness Doctrine". They yielded on the "Fairness Doctrine" in exchange for non-lethal aid to the Contras.

1990 October 5 - October 9: President George H.W. Bush vowed to veto any continuing resolution that was not paired with a deficit reduction package, and did so when one reached his desk. The House failed to override his veto before a shutdown occurred. Congress then passed a continuing resolution with a deficit reduction package that Bush signed to end the shutdown.

1995 November 13 - November 19: In the shutdown of 1995 and 1996 President Bill Clinton vetoed a continuing resolution passed by the Republican-controlled Congress. A deal was reached allowing for 75% funding for four weeks, and Clinton agreed to a seven-year timetable for a balanced budget.

1995 December 16 - January 6, 1996: Subsequently the Republicans demanded President Clinton propose a budget with the seven-year timetable using Congressional Budget Office numbers, rather than Clinton's Office of Management and Budget numbers. However, Clinton refused. Eventually, Congress and Clinton agreed to pass a compromise budget.

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#42 ogm

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 05:22 PM

ah....if previous shutdowns led to minor corrections...this time the situation might be different, imo

As the chart above shows as one example, the last 17 US shutdowns of 3 days or more since 1976 all saw market rallies as clarity was provided.

This time will probably be no different given how deeply "oversold" we are right now, no less, option speculators are buying puts at a rate not seen since the June lows.

Fib



Just curious. How do you get "deeply oversold" ? We're nowhere near oversold from where I'm sitting. Maybe on 15 min chart, which should be good for an hour long bounce.
Otherwise we're just starting to gather steam.

Here is SPX and Russell.

Posted Image
Posted Image

Edited by ogm, 30 September 2013 - 05:25 PM.


#43 SemiBizz

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 05:29 PM

You know I have heard about enough of how bullish these shutdowns are... this is on every channel. I think this is a fade - big time. Like all of those shutdowns were faded, the generally accepted principle now that it is bullish. That's a Fade.... :lol:
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#44 fib_1618

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 05:33 PM

ah....if previous shutdowns led to minor corrections...this time the situation might be different, imo

As the chart above shows as one example, the last 17 US shutdowns of 3 days or more since 1976 all saw market rallies as clarity was provided.

This time will probably be no different given how deeply "oversold" we are right now, no less, option speculators are buying puts at a rate not seen since the June lows.

Fib

Just curious. How do you get "deeply oversold" ? We're nowhere near oversold from where I'm sitting.

FINALLY...a technical question!! :D

Check the NYSE Open 10 TRIN...deepest "oversold" reading in more than 3 years.

Like all of those shutdowns were faded, the generally accepted principle now that it is bullish.

The historical evidence compliments this viewpoint...as does the current technical evidence.

Whether it will be "different this time" or not is the bet.

Fib

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#45 SemiBizz

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 05:44 PM

If for some reason this does get resolved, then the next big thing I guess is the "Dammit Janet - Jammit Dammit" Rally/Coronation for the new Queen of the Financial World. :lol: And if it doesn't. I just don't think this is going to turn out as bullish as the media is hyping this up. For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one. Seems like both sides don't want to make a deal.
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#46 fib_1618

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:08 PM

For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one.

Sure they have. We just forget.

All the battles with Regan and the Democratic Congress...all those battles with Clinton and the Republican Congress.

And let's not even go into the hatred and bitterness between the parties in the mid 1800's!

There's just more conjecture and hyperbole right now than what we've been used to over the years...plus we have the major emotional topic of health care thrown into the mix.

Fib

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#47 andiron

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:14 PM

so far technicals all are lining up to the bearish side...it is never 100% but manana could be bloodshed ...like 300+ down DOW day///

#48 arbman

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:19 PM

so far technicals all are lining up to the bearish side...it is never 100% but manana could be bloodshed ...like 300+ down DOW day///


We may just see a consolidation down to 1660s where the high volume came today and then rally back to the highs one more time into November... Equity P/C started to spike, a better squeeze is slowly approaching... If the market gets under 1660s, it may get slippery to 1630s and then 1500s would come quickly, but I am not sure as Fed is devaluing USD very rapidly at the moment...

Edited by arbman, 30 September 2013 - 06:20 PM.


#49 andiron

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:24 PM

so far technicals all are lining up to the bearish side...it is never 100% but manana could be bloodshed ...like 300+ down DOW day///


We may just see a consolidation down to 1660s where the high volume came today and then rally back to the highs one more time into November... Equity P/C started to spike, a better squeeze is slowly approaching... If the market gets under 1660s, it may get slippery to 1630s and then 1500s would come quickly, but I am not sure as Fed is devaluing USD very rapidly at the moment...


where is this USD devaluation? since 2008..dollar index is sideways to up

#50 arbman

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 06:33 PM

so far technicals all are lining up to the bearish side...it is never 100% but manana could be bloodshed ...like 300+ down DOW day///


We may just see a consolidation down to 1660s where the high volume came today and then rally back to the highs one more time into November... Equity P/C started to spike, a better squeeze is slowly approaching... If the market gets under 1660s, it may get slippery to 1630s and then 1500s would come quickly, but I am not sure as Fed is devaluing USD very rapidly at the moment...


where is this USD devaluation? since 2008..dollar index is sideways to up


I am talking about this HUGE devaluation that started in July and progressing rapidly at the moment that pulled USD down about 5.46%. This is the devaluation of the ENTIRE US economy becoming cheaper for foreign investors regardless of stock market assets and bonds and so on. Eventually, cheaper USD will make the US assets worth purchasing again... We are talking about $15.68 trillion economy becoming $850B cheaper already for the last 3 months. Let me tell you, this is the biggest event of the second half already, it will be noticed eventually once USD Index dives under 80.

Edited by arbman, 30 September 2013 - 06:33 PM.