203 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the last few titles for the topic have eluded me in normal years the indian gold buying season hits stride in september. this year the govt took the east indians out of the market they will be back in october. i read where china has now allowed more banks to purchase gold, where in april there was 8 banks that were allowed to buy gold. so here we are the govt has shut down , what a surprise. now lets see for how long and what damage it causes. for me , i am fixed on is this still a wave 2 or are fresh new lows in the cards? the major cycles bottom any time now. the dollar hit the skids yesterday. how about those complacent broad market investors. dharma

[Russ]

Dharma,

As I told Dougie on the other string, I believe my original forecast for an October low is correct, I was looking around Oct. 8-10th as can be seen on your old string, that appears to have now shifted and is looking more like Oct. 24th area before gold finds a bottom.

A head and shoulders pattern appears to have formed, so the June lows are most likely the target now. I took a long position on nugt looking for a bounce recently but that now appears unlikely, any move up is going to be limited I think until late Oct.

http://stockcharts.c...01-01&en=(today)&i=p15502602616&r=1380643606460.png

Russ

[andiron]

looks at Silver...if it get support here could be bullish for gold as well...

[dharma]

thanks russ, i too have had the october period for a low. if its a new low or not i dont know.
your 8-10 . hadik has the 7th. i dont have a date , just this month.
this is interesting
http://www.reuters.c...N0HQ15N20130930
the flow of gold from west to east is undeniable.
the shutdown of the us govt is going to exacerbate the problems. its a time not to make waves but to wait for the usual bottoming signs.
keep in mind also china is closed this week. coupled w/the indian ban, i dont know if they are allowed to begin buying yet or not. will keep gold under pressure
this chart from rr is very interesting. years ago i purchased a techniques from welles wilder. he called the reverse point wave.=megaphone or expanding triangle. this one is massive
http://kingworldnews...The_Future.html

dharma

Edited by dharma, 01 October 2013 - 11:35 AM.

[dougie]

looks at Silver...if it get support here could be bullish for gold as well...

not sure what you are seeing there? Got chart?

[andiron]

TL support and gap fill..it traded much better than gold today after sell off... may be it will lead

[Russ]

TL support and gap fill..it traded much better than gold today after sell off... may be it will lead

I am seeing that Silver will form a big high around June/July of 2014 but I think it likely it is going to follow Gold down into late Oct., but maybe a good bounce can happen.

[Sentient Being]

Gold's going the wrong way for me to get long. meaning I want to see a sustained intermediate term uptrend before I get long. What I"m seeing is a strong downtrend and lots of folks trying to pick a bottom on the way down. But I realize some are trading short time frames.

Edited by Sentient Being, 01 October 2013 - 08:53 PM.

[senorBS]

aloha from Maui amigos! Gold just hit the muy importante 1272-1278 support area, what's muy interesting is silver may already have a short term cinco up off today's low and have done and abc decline while gold finished the down move - this is a grande maybe but a rally of $20 or so off this low has things looking muy intersting from a bullish perspective, while a sustained decline below 1270 starts me thinkin a test of 1179, we see. Senor

Edited by senorBS, 01 October 2013 - 09:16 PM.

[Russ]

aloha from Maui amigos! Gold just hit the muy importante 1272-1278 support area, what's muy interesting is silver may already have a short term cinco up off today's low and have done and abc decline while gold finished the down move - this is a grande maybe but a rally of $20 or so off this low has things looking muy intersting from a bullish perspective, while a sustained decline below 1270 starts me thinkin a test of 1179, we see.

Senor

Thanks for the update Senor, I notice Armstrong has a new article on Gold he is turning quite bearish
saying its headed for slightly below 1000 and once it gets there people will be saying 650 is coming and they will keep selling the rallies which he says will be needed for the new bull to really start to run.

I have discovered a strong trend on Silver for a major high next summer, after this October Gold and Silver should start to move back up, hope your rally works out for now. Someday I would like to see Hawaii.