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Stock Traders Almanac


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#1 Chris G

Chris G

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 12:11 AM

Stock Trader's Almanac

By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal




November 2013 Trading & Investment Strategy October 31, 2013 - Volume 13, Number 5
Market at a Glance




Good Worst Six Months, Better Best Six Months
It still amazes us that after all these years of consistency and scientific proof that so many investors and traders are still incredulous to the impact of seasonality on the stock market and the success trading it has generated. As the Worst Six Months (AKA “Sell in May) comes to and end today with rather impressive gains many of you are probable concerned that this may be an ominous portent for the next six months – the bullish leg of our Best Six Months Switching Strategy. Fear not.



Selected October 2013 Articles
November Almanac: Historically Great Time For Longs
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA and S&P 500 month since 1950. Since 1971, November ranks third for NASDAQ. November is also third best for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 fourth best since 1979.




All In for the “Best Months”
By Christopher Mistal

After siding with caution over the past six months or so by limiting new buying, taking a few selective short positions and holding some bonds in the portfolios, the green light was given when we issued our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal. Since that day we have aggressively expanded holdings in both the Stock and ETF Portfolios. Thus far it has paid off with solid gains. Having already laid out our expectations for Q4 and 2014 Q1 on Tuesday we believe the Stock and ETF portfolios are well positioned for the coming months.




How We Did In 2013 & What To Expect In Q4 & 2014
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch

As I prepare to head up to the World MoneyShow in Toronto on Thursday, I figured this was a good time to take a step back and reassess and evaluate our analysis, outlook and recent track record regarding the markets. In the two talks I am giving in Toronto on Saturday I will share with the attendees our philosophy and thought process on the seasonal sector and stock patterns we have recently deployed as well as reveal many of the stock and ETF opportunities we have provided to subscribers over the past several weeks. Since last October we have made some good calls and been a bit off on a few.




Copious Menagerie of Hearty Stocks
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

While our friends at StockTwits are hosting their annual Stocktoberfest [http://stocktwits.com/stocktoberfest] shindig in San Diego, California this week, we have prepared for you our annual basket of stock ideas for the best time of the year to buy stocks – late October. With our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal [http://www.stocktrad...=1702#article1] now issued and the federal government open for business we present to you today a fresh collection of new stock ideas.




Market Volatility Creates Opportunity
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

The Seasonal MACD Buy Signals for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ triggered on the close today. With all three indices confirming, we are now issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal. At this time, sell iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and establish long positions in SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), PowerShares QQQ (QQQ), and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM). For tracking purposes today’s closes will be used in the portfolio. Set an initial buy limit equal to today’s closing price for DIA, SPY, QQQ, and IWM. An initial stop loss will be set at 10% below today’s closing price.




Still Waiting for Buy Signal Confirm
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

Whew! Now that everything is fixed inside the beltway we can get back to the bull market. All kidding aside, we find it persistently frustrating and incredulous that our federal government continues to string the country and the market along with their public vain arguments. While it is encouraging that a deal is on the table to postpone default and reopen the government as evidenced by today’s healthy market advance and what appears at the time to be a 90% up day, this is far from over.




Euro and S&P 500 in Focus
By Christopher Mistal & Jeffrey A. Hirsch

After reaching a new all-time high on September 18, DJIA has been down in ten of the past thirteen trading sessions through yesterday’s close, including two Down Friday/Down Monday (DF/DM) warnings. The S&P 500’s performance is identical to DJIA’s. Having peaked later, on October 1, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 charts look better now, but momentum is waning. As a result, our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is still negative.




Waiting For All-Clear to Sound
By Christopher Mistal

Spurred by recent talk and yesterday’s Chart of the Day, where past Federal government shutdowns were shown to not have been all that bad for the market, I decided to create my own chart of DJIA and S&P 500 performance 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after the start of the past 17 shutdowns. It is worth noting that the 10 most recent shutdowns all occurred during the secular bull market that ran from 1982-2000.




Seasonal MACD Signal Update
By Christopher Mistal

Today is the first day that we could issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal however, it is still negative. Typical week after September option expiration and end-of-third quarter market weakness emerged right on cue this year. As a result both the faster and slowing moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are negative. NASDAQ has performed better and only its faster-moving “buy” MACD indicator is negative.



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