41 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Please Vote.

[jjc]

Please Vote.

I don't think it will ever end... and I think the USD will remain strongish- (not fall w/ any great speed relative to other currencies or precious metals).

[Rogerdodger]

"We're not in Kansas anymore Toto."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 November 2013 - 12:58 PM.

[thespookyone]

It will end later than it should, as they are keying it off the jobs report-and most new jobs are part time.

[libertas]

I voted for QE expansion, since so far the Fed has followed all the stupid moves of the BoJ. The economy will slide into depression regardless of what the Fed does and Yellen will yield to the pressure to "do something" in response. Of course, QE will eventually end. But it could very easily be twenty or thirty years from now, probably as the result of a currency crisis.

[arbman]

It largely also depends on how you define QE as Fed must print money with the growth of the economy regardless.

In my opinion, the growth of the Fed's balance sheet will only align with the economic growth eventually. Fed may chose to remove the QE label to boost its credibility at some point, meaning Fed will continue with sporadic POMO activity as in 2002-2007 period, but remove a systematic program of daily purchases.

However, Fed will never voluntarily shrink the money supply without a severe currency crisis or strong growth with inflation, or a spike in the 10 yr bonds over 7-8% in my opinion...

I firmly believe that US will not end up like Japan and in fact continue to grow better over the next 10 years. The primary reason is the population growth in US, unlike in Japan.

Edited by arbman, 16 November 2013 - 02:14 PM.

[pdx5]

I firmly believe that US will not end up like Japan and in fact continue to grow better over the next 10 years. The primary reason is the population growth in US, unlike in Japan.

I wish I could concur with that. However we could end up worse than Japan.
> Our personal savings rate is abyssmal compared to Japan. Japan can borrow from Japanese people.
> Free stuff handouts are growing much faster than Japan.
FREE Food stamps approaching almost 50 Million with 450,000 added in July+August
FREE Rent subsidy
FREE Heat subsidy
FREE Obamacare subsidy
FREE Obama phones
FREE Contraceptives
FREE Mammograms
FREE Pre-natal care & delivery
FREE Transportation to medical facility
FREE Translators for non-English speaking
FREE Lawyers for the indigent
FREE Pell Grants
FREE Daycare
FREE CASH! Under the Family Independence (FI) program the takers are given a charged debit card.

> Japan has no under-educated illegal immigrants flooding the country.
> Japan has no land borders for easy flow of illegal immigrants.
> Japanese workers have a better work ethic than US workers.
> Unions in Japan are not anti-business. Actually they make sure workers do their job.
> Japan is a monolithic society. No multiple languages or cultures.

Edited by pdx5, 16 November 2013 - 03:19 PM.

[Data]

I think the taper is coming but won't get to removing all of the purchase and will probably be reversed. I think their plan is to shift the responsibility to Japan and Europe, strengthen the dollar to keep down commodity inflaiton, and stimulate demand for imports from those two regions to bail them out. This is the same strategy they tried in the mid 90's. It doesn't work if there's a significant fall in the stock market. Hence, Greenspan continually came to the rescue of the stock market in the second half of the 90's.

Edited by Data, 16 November 2013 - 03:23 PM.

[selecto]

How many men with picks and shovels does a monster steam shovel replace? How many lines of code does it take to replace an entire bookkeeping department? We are not anytime soon going back to traditional "full employment." That's sooo over, yet "they" are still trying to make it happen. not understanding that as soon as cost-benefit tips towards technology, the human being that used to do the job is outta here. And once the software or the robot is doing its job, most of the people who built it are outta here also.

[jjc]

How many men with picks and shovels does a monster steam shovel replace? How many lines of code does it take to replace an entire bookkeeping department? We are not anytime soon going back to traditional "full employment." That's sooo over, yet "they" are still trying to make it happen. not understanding that as soon as cost-benefit tips towards technology, the human being that used to do the job is outta here. And once the software or the robot is doing its job, most of the people who built it are outta here also.

Exactly! Very nice understanding for a lawyer/trader/non-engineer (or do I have that wrong?).