41 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

I think QE ends when the fed senses it has lost control of rates.

[selecto]

jjc, you have it right but its just a case of "you can observe a lot just by watching."

Edited by selecto, 16 November 2013 - 04:15 PM.

[arbman]

Selecto, you don't get it, let me explain to you brutally what we are really dealing with here... I don't think the manufacturing or production jobs got replaced by so many new machinery since mid-90s. Instead, the jobs were actually exported to Asia. The purpose of QE is to make sure every American is stripped away from their savings and work again for dirt cheap salaries so that the jobs can be brought back to US. QE is a new balancing act of US govt, most citizens will work for only lunch money and pay their Obamacare mandatory insurance to survive while a small minority will simply capitalize on them. This sums up the purpose of Fed and printing, aka QE... For example, look at the turn of the previous century. There were many workers who worked for nothing to build factories, roads, bridges, cars etc etc. When that production wasn't enough to generate more profits all of the workers were sent to fight in world wars here and there. In 90s, the tech jobs required you to sleep in the lab during crunch times without overtime. I don't know anymore any workers in US with holes in their shoes or clothes, but I know the factory workers in China are sleeping in their factories and getting paid nothing, even committing suicide etc... See, this is what US workers are competing against and this is what QE will eventually render them to... To give them no other option than working to survive only and work them to death, if necessary for more profits. Then there will be jobs in US for everyone again. Problem solved.

[Sentient Being]

I think QE ends when the fed senses it has lost control of rates.

And that could be soon or it could be a very long time from now.

[goldfungus]

I think QE ends when the fed senses it has lost control of rates.

Absolutely. What interest rate is that? I say over 3% on 10 yr with the Fed still in taper mode will let you now it has begun. The Fed won't sense anything. The bond market will just take away their power. How long will it take? My guess would be 2016 at latest.

[pdx5]

My guess would be 2016 at latest.

Taper will not happen during Yellen's 4 year term to any significant degree.
More and more workers are dropping out of work force every month.
Many people prefer all the free stuff from the gov't over low paying service sector jobs.
Ratio of workers to adults under 65 is LOWEST in 30+ years.
So Yellen has no reason to taper.


2017 will end QE, period.
After a new president is sworn in and appoints a new sec of Treasury
and a new Fed chair.

Edited by pdx5, 16 November 2013 - 06:03 PM.

[jjc]

Arbman you are being way too pesimistic there... where is the optimistic guy... the believer in growth and innovation.. what you're saying has a small flavor of truth but I don't think things will work that way by design.. I have spent more than a few nights in a lab and in the end I was compensated for my overtime (albeit I was very lucky... and of course you know what they say about people who work incredibly hard; "they are lucky". ). In the end selecto is dead on correct: "unskilled labor is going away" (even what we call skilled labor will be creatively destroyed).

[pdx5]

In the end selecto is dead on correct: "unskilled labor is going away" (even what we call skilled labor will be creatively destroyed).

The rich need a lot of low skilled labor.
To drive their cars, do the cleaning and cooking, serve as nanny's, wait on tables, etc.

When I go on a cruise there are may be 2400 passengers and 1100 crew to do all
the service jobs. Nope, low skilled jobs will never go away. I have yet to see a computer
clean my cabin, cook up the gourmet food, serve it with a smile, mop the public areas,
keep the glass and wood polished and shining, or serve me a drink in one of the dozen
bars on ship.

[andiron]

There is an upper limit to QE..and it is closer than you think....

Global Hyperinflated Assets will implode...and it will bring in much needed realignment....
The academics have always been there w/ their highfalutin theories only to see it blow up in their face...
but sheltered from the rigors of life what w/ cushy and sheltered jobs protected by tax payers they have little to lose

http://www.ft.com/in...l#axzz2kpDED7LO

Edited by andiron, 16 November 2013 - 07:05 PM.

[gm_general]

If you've seen the Wizard of Oz, at some point there will be a tipping point when people realize the man behind the curtain is just pulling useless levers, and that he has no real power. That's the point they are preparing for, as you are basically no longer entitled to your money held in the bank. In some emergency, you will be reduced to something like a stockholder in the bank, and you will get diddly squat back from them. They changed the laws in this way in preparation. If rates go up, the debt service load will crush the US population, just paying the interest will not be possible.