262 replies to this topic

[dharma]

rates went up yesterday, so did the dollar. gold got hammered lots of talk by ben of reducing and eliminating qe. last i looked ben was being eliminated in fact they are voting to nominate yellen today. when the gold bull began, no one had ever heard of qe. qe didnt become a factor in the gold price till 09. so, getting rid of qe. is not what the gold bull was about anyway. arab spring began w/ food prices rising dramatically. i dont know when but i expect food prices to rise, more than they have . the price adjustment we are seeing in gold is due to the largest buyer in the world buying about 1/5 of what they had been buying . changing the supply/demand equation. the east indians and chinese dont factor in qe or lack of qe into the equation. they have experienced inflations and deflations for them it is about preservation of capital. in india it is also a religious thing to own gold . we are starting to approach cost of production. many underfunded explorers will be closing their doors. when the bottom is in and this could stretch out till may, then phase 11 of the bull begins. other than sentiment there are no signs of a bottom yet. waiting to deploy cash dharma

[dougie]

pure ugly from where I sit

[stubaby]

rates went up yesterday, so did the dollar. gold got hammered
lots of talk by ben of reducing and eliminating qe. last i looked ben was being eliminated
in fact they are voting to nominate yellen today.
when the gold bull began, no one had ever heard of qe. qe didnt become a factor in the
gold price till 09. so, getting rid of qe. is not what the gold bull was about anyway.
arab spring began w/ food prices rising dramatically. i dont know when but i expect
food prices to rise, more than they have .
the price adjustment we are seeing in gold is due to the largest buyer in the world buying
about 1/5 of what they had been buying . changing the supply/demand equation. the
east indians and chinese dont factor in qe or lack of qe into the equation. they have experienced
inflations and deflations for them it is about preservation of capital. in india it is also a religious
thing to own gold . we are starting to approach cost of production. many underfunded explorers
will be closing their doors. when the bottom is in and this could stretch out till may, then phase 11
of the bull begins. other than sentiment there are no signs of a bottom yet. waiting to deploy cash
dharma

dharma:

Thanks for your thoughts - Here's my chart on the Gold:Silver Ratio annotated for QE and other events:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=W&yr=13&mn=11&dy=0&i=p40676482695&a=259871955&r=421.png

stubaby

Noted some signs of capitulation yesterday and again today (NUGT Volume especially)

[dougie]

sure seems that gold needs at at least a c wave up off the June lows

[dharma]

stu-thanks for the annotated chart.interesting that you chose to use the gold/silver ratio. silver is the more speculative of the 2 and more inflation oriented. my bent has been and is we will see stagflation. so far the weight of the debt and the implosion the forces of deflation are holding sway. i expect the world wide money printing will change that oscillators are low, wouldnt expect a major decline from here. not in a hurry . there have been many points of capitulation, but apparently we have yet to see the major throwing stuff overboard. of course @this point there is no froth left in the market. the bugs have been spanked, brought behind the woodshed, and nuked w/heavy artillery. and yet the search and destroy is underway. w/oscillators this low there could be another failed rally dharma

[Russ]

It looks like the gold and its stocks should bottom this week or early next week from my charts, then possible rally into January which would imply that a more serious break of last june's lows happen after a jan. rally going into spring.
.

Armstrong's latest on gold today...
In gold we have a Daily Bearish Reversal at 1250 followed by 1206, and 1179. But the next big area after 1206 will be 1088. The 1206 number is also a Weekly Bearish Reversal. At this point, gold has to close ABOVE 12816 on Friday just to stabilize. A weekly closing BELOW 12613 will warn we may see lower prices into next week. Our Monthly Bearish Reversal lies at 1151.80. So we have to keep this area in mind. We still see December as a key turning point and January shaping up as a Directional Change.

gold has to close ABOVE 12816 on Friday just to stabilize. A weekly closing BELOW 12613 will warn we may see lower prices into next week.

[crossd]

It looks like the gold and its stocks should bottom this week or early next week from my charts, then possible rally into January which would imply that a more serious break of last june's lows happen after a jan. rally going into spring.
.

Armstrong's latest on gold today...
In gold we have a Daily Bearish Reversal at 1250 followed by 1206, and 1179. But the next big area after 1206 will be 1088. The 1206 number is also a Weekly Bearish Reversal. At this point, gold has to close ABOVE 12816 on Friday just to stabilize. A weekly closing BELOW 12613 will warn we may see lower prices into next week. Our Monthly Bearish Reversal lies at 1151.80. So we have to keep this area in mind. We still see December as a key turning point and January shaping up as a Directional Change.

gold has to close ABOVE 12816 on Friday just to stabilize. A weekly closing BELOW 12613 will warn we may see lower prices into next week.

..there are only 3 key turning dates for Bradley cycles for 2014..for stocks..the first id Jan 1..could influence gold bottoming..

donc

[dharma]

the art market and diamond market have displayed significant appreciation lately. collectibles , as in the bull of the 80s will go into the stratosphere. diamonds dont set off metal detectors as metals do. so traveling w/diamonds is easy. its also alot of money in a very small package. in weimar , before the huge hyperinflation hit, stocks showed great appreciation. i suspect that is going to happen here. , maybe not before a significant correction happens 1st. (just to reiterate, i am not in the hyperinflation camp. my crystal ball is calling for stagflation) these things happening ie. collectibles and stocks going up are a prelude to the resumption of the metals bull. chidambaram has asked for a year to balance the trade deficit. of course he thinks gold buying is the source of the countries problems.! a bottom will come over the next 1/2 year the question is @ what price. we in the west view gold differently then they do in the east. they have been through more of these currency disruptions then we have. they buy and hold for generations. which will prove to be the backbone of the bull. for now its finding a bottom. dharma

[dougie]

"then possible rally into January which would imply that a more serious break of last june's lows happen after a jan. rally going into spring." Russ: cant follow: a rally into Jan then a Jan rally going into spring?

[senorBS]

the art market and diamond market have displayed significant appreciation lately. collectibles , as in the bull of the 80s will go into the stratosphere. diamonds dont set off metal detectors as metals do. so traveling w/diamonds is easy. its also alot of money in a very small package. in weimar , before the huge hyperinflation hit, stocks showed great appreciation. i suspect that is going to happen here. , maybe not before a significant correction happens 1st. (just to reiterate, i am not in the hyperinflation camp. my crystal ball is calling for stagflation) these things happening ie. collectibles and stocks going up are a prelude to the resumption of the metals bull. chidambaram has asked for a year to balance the trade deficit. of course he thinks gold buying is the source of the countries problems.! a bottom will come over the next 1/2 year the question is @ what price. we in the west view gold differently then they do in the east. they have been through more of these currency disruptions then we have. they buy and hold for generations. which will prove to be the backbone of the bull.
for now its finding a bottom.
dharma

with gold stock indices at or near the June lows I am looking at some daily and weekly charts. GDXJ this week is making a new low since the 2011 high, weekly RSI bottomed in May, made a higher low vs price at the late June bottom and is so far again registering a higher bottom, you have a string of potential bullish divergences in the daily RSI as well, This does not at all suggest we have to bottom here, but it is telling be a major bottom technical set up is at least very viable IF prices can rally sharply from this area or modestly lower. The HUI weekly closing low was at 212.18 in October, we are now at the 210.50 area, look at the series of higher weekly RSI readings vs previous lows - a "potential" very bullish set up as bigger picture downside momentum wanes with each new low (so far).

I want to stress that this is only POTENTIAL until prices rally sharply and lock in these potential bullish divergences, but this is how major bottoms form and sentiment is also extremely bearish. However I remain very cautious as there exists the potential for a big final washout into January.

Senor