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Just wondering what you all think


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#1 zoropb

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 12:43 PM

about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4. I know by AD cumulative they are keeping more than dumping but that is a heck of a lot lower volume from 2009 and we all know most of the price gains was done under cover of ahrs magical pumps but does this concern anyone 1-5 years down the road? As far as I know volume on a year bases has always gone up except on top years for the most part on rallies with participation shown in volume. I do not feel warm and fuzzy about it. I do not care if we hit 2100 spx or more. Something is not kosher about this market more than ever. I started to sell non stock market stuff as recent as 3 months ago. I did this in 98 and 2005... that is all I did not really want to hold and raised cash. I got some nice deals both times some years later. Just curious what some of you all think.

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#2 zoropb

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 12:50 PM

while I am here might as well ...today we have es 1841+- then 1832-28.50 /YM 16459 not to far off 79. 16364-32 after any of them good fortune to who ever stays in.

Edited by zoropb, 27 December 2013 - 12:51 PM.

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#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 12:56 PM

It's time for a pullback, it won't be the end of the World. Something like 1810-1812 if it has legs. Then we see. Always tough when markets overextend, either way. Nature will take it's course.

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#4 zoropb

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:05 PM

It's time for a pullback, it won't be the end of the World.

Something like 1810-1812 if it has legs.

Then we see.


Always tough when markets overextend, either way.

Nature will take it's course.

I know Mr T and thanks for the input as always on st (as I wrote on spooks to Chief IT those 200-and 300 emas should take out any gains from up here even if we do the avg gain for 2nd presidential years about 4.5% since 1928) but I mean what do you think about the 4 years of lower volume.

We already priced in 2014 spx earnings in this happy camper environment. So lets price in 2015 why not. :lol:

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#5 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:15 PM

4 years of rally with lower volume? Normal Operations. Oh Yes, there will be hell to pay... For 4 years of 70% daily churn - meaningless transactions that do nothing but bump up prices. The PRICE FIXING Engines. The ZERO SUM game of in and out in microseconds. All they do is push, push, push into resistance. Stop at resistance then just set up under it with support and let the suckers pay the higher price. Overcome that resistance, then go on to the next. Rinse repeat. At the end of the day 70% of the volume didn't walk away with anything but the nickel and dime profits times millions of shares, but J6P bought, the stock went up a little and he's happy. Happy until the moment of PRICE DISCOVERY. Lilke the FLASH CRASH. Like August 2011. It'll happen again, all the ingredients are here, overextended market...

Edited by SemiBizz, 27 December 2013 - 01:16 PM.

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#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:19 PM

I dunno if you heard Rick Santelli this morning... Was discussing how the BANKS are WAREHOUSING METALS. BANKS !! What the hell are the BANKS doing in the commodity business? PRICE FIXING -that's what. And it doesn't stop there, look at your bond pits. It all flies on acceptance and crashes on REJECTION. We'll reach that point, just a matter of time.

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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#7 CRUISENAL

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:24 PM

Hi Z,

I feel the same. But unlike most here looking short term, their in the trees but can't see the forest, I tend to look at weekly and monthly charts. After almost 5 years up, we start to wonder when and how it will end. We have some here who think it will never end, LOL! Well, everything comes to and end eventually.

But my thinking is along these lines. I look back to other periods like 66-74, the 90's where the market took off UP, the 2000 & 2007 tops and so on. So I am looking at monthly charts here not daily stuff. The S&P is still within the Bull Market that started in 2009, whether it is Secular or Cyclical. I believe Cyclical Bull. Much like 1973 before the next major decline happened. I suspect we are getting close to a turn down of some degree, but the Top is likely not in yet. In all these cases, the S&P pulled back to the monthly 20 SMA and rallied one more time off that low, set a new marginally higher high and turned down. That is likely to happen again. If it does, I would expect a pullback to the area around 1700 give or take, and then a rally one more time to exceed the current high by a few points, maybe 1850-1860. But until that happens, and if it continues higher, then that just raises the levels a bit higher.

Then I studied the Shille PE going back to the late 1800's. I have been hearing a couple traders talking about the market heading allot higher. I mean a new Bull Market heading above SPX 2000 or 2500. Well, there has never been a time that I can see, where from a Shiller PE of 26+, that the New Bull Market was born that went up for 15 to 20 years like the 80's and 90's or the mid 40's to mid 60's. Those always started with the PE well below 10 and somehere between 5 to 8.

So when I look at it from this perspective, I think we need to see a selloff that re-sets the balance of Price to Earnings to a point which Bull Markets are Born from. And that is not where we are now. Can the markets still go higher? Sure can, but history suggests that a re-set is coming in the future. My guess is later this year but who knows. Time will tell. Now that I have sort of took a stand on what I think, I am ready to get hammered by the nay sayers. LOL! Alan




about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4. I know by AD cumulative they are keeping more than dumping but that is a heck of a lot lower volume from 2009 and we all know most of the price gains was done under cover of ahrs magical pumps but does this concern anyone 1-5 years down the road? As far as I know volume on a year bases has always gone up except on top years for the most part on rallies with participation shown in volume.

I do not feel warm and fuzzy about it. I do not care if we hit 2100 spx or more. Something is not kosher about this market more than ever. I started to sell non stock market stuff as recent as 3 months ago. I did this in 98 and 2005... that is all I did not really want to hold and raised cash. I got some nice deals both times some years later.

Just curious what some of you all think.



#8 zoropb

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:29 PM

No did not hear it this morning. I usually have the TV off. Unless its a release of BS numbers. It is strange they would be holding metals. Real Estate is now over the norm again a couple years ago I mentioned here I thought it was the best value not any more. I am watching the grains again like some years ago slowly getting to cost. Not much else on the radar for value it sure isn't the stock market regardless of the trading which we all know means squat short term.

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#9 zoropb

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:36 PM

speaking of value crude is probably the most overvalued com out there. Oh yeah coffee is cheap hit the levels I told my coffee friends here to watch 1-1.15

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#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 01:45 PM

This looks like MARK DOWN coming here... No Volume though. COMPX, RUT new lows SPX holding up, last man standing with XOI.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics