44 replies to this topic

[MikeyG]

Hi Z,

I feel the same. But unlike most here looking short term, their in the trees but can't see the forest, I tend to look at weekly and monthly charts. After almost 5 years up, we start to wonder when and how it will end. We have some here who think it will never end, LOL! Well, everything comes to and end eventually.

But my thinking is along these lines. I look back to other periods like 66-74, the 90's where the market took off UP, the 2000 & 2007 tops and so on. So I am looking at monthly charts here not daily stuff. The S&P is still within the Bull Market that started in 2009, whether it is Secular or Cyclical. I believe Cyclical Bull. Much like 1973 before the next major decline happened. I suspect we are getting close to a turn down of some degree, but the Top is likely not in yet. In all these cases, the S&P pulled back to the monthly 20 SMA and rallied one more time off that low, set a new marginally higher high and turned down. That is likely to happen again. If it does, I would expect a pullback to the area around 1700 give or take, and then a rally one more time to exceed the current high by a few points, maybe 1850-1860. But until that happens, and if it continues higher, then that just raises the levels a bit higher.

Then I studied the Shille PE going back to the late 1800's. I have been hearing a couple traders talking about the market heading allot higher. I mean a new Bull Market heading above SPX 2000 or 2500. Well, there has never been a time that I can see, where from a Shiller PE of 26+, that the New Bull Market was born that went up for 15 to 20 years like the 80's and 90's or the mid 40's to mid 60's. Those always started with the PE well below 10 and somehere between 5 to 8.

So when I look at it from this perspective, I think we need to see a selloff that re-sets the balance of Price to Earnings to a point which Bull Markets are Born from. And that is not where we are now. Can the markets still go higher? Sure can, but history suggests that a re-set is coming in the future. My guess is later this year but who knows. Time will tell. Now that I have sort of took a stand on what I think, I am ready to get hammered by the nay sayers. LOL! Alan

Great post...

Edited by MikeyG, 27 December 2013 - 01:55 PM.

[zoropb]

Alan very much enjoyed reading your views. Yeah start of a bull nah but the interesting point is we came real close to last 2 record runs in up months on 12 months last 2 were 1958 and 96 Both were not at tops and ran quite a bit more. So I agree there is more at one point only those pesky 200-300 emas saying I dare you at this point until that is taken care of it's kinda silly here or further if IT trader (not the hold forever dudes). I am in the we will see 2000+ spx camp before it's over though.

[selecto]

Hay, Z! The larger price / internal mo windows suggest price advance. There is no "top" being formed here. That's what I think.

[SemiBizz]

No did not hear it this morning. I usually have the TV off. Unless its a release of BS numbers. It is strange they would be holding metals. Real Estate is now over the norm again a couple years ago I mentioned here I thought it was the best value not any more. I am watching the grains again like some years ago slowly getting to cost. Not much else on the radar for value it sure isn't the stock market regardless of the trading which we all know means squat short term.

It's pretty disgusting Z...


Millions of Tons of Metals Stashed in Shadow Warehouses

The world's metal is slipping into the shadows.

Banks, hedge funds, commodity merchants and others are stashing tens of millions of tons of aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc in a hidden system of warehouses that span the globe.

These facilities are known to some in the industry as "shadow warehouses" because they are unregulated and don't disclose their holdings.

They operate outside the London Metal Exchange system of warehouses, the traditional home for these metals.

As of October, a record seven million to 10 million tons of aluminum were being housed in these facilities, in countries as far apart as Malaysia and the Netherlands, according to estimates from several analysts.



The amount dwarfs the 5.5 million tons of aluminum in the LME-licensed warehouses, based on LME figures as of Tuesday. Just 12 months ago, the figures were about equal.

A similar shift is taking place with other industrial metals, analysts say.

As a result, producers and consumers are bracing for potentially wild swings in metals prices as market participants have difficulty accurately gauging supplies of these metals. With no clear insight into how much metal is in the shadow system, setting prices will become increasingly difficult, they say.

Analysts and traders say the flow of metal into shadow warehouses already is making prices move in unpredictable ways—such as when a large amount of unaccounted-for metal suddenly makes its way onto the market.

(More at link)

[fib_1618]

Just wondering what you all think about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4.

In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.

Most advancing price sequences show higher volume qualities at the correctional lows and/or price tops of the larger up trend when the majority becomes confident.

This mass trading psychology is equal and opposite during true bear market conditions where volume increases during the declining trend and shows lower volume qualities at the tops of the correctional highs and/or realized price bottoms as traders become disenchanted and look elsewhere to invest their money.

Bottom line, volume bars tend to be misconstrued and/or misused as to their value in reading a chart.

In bull markets, it's not the quantity of volume that counts as it would be the quality up to the final climax as the fear of being "left out" becomes too overwhelming to ignore.

Bear markets, on the other hand, are a whole different animal...they become more ferocious (to sell at any price) as time moves along and then finishes with a whimper.

Fib

[zoropb]

Hay, Z! The larger price / internal mo windows suggest price advance. There is no "top" being formed here. That's what I think.

Yeah mo has been serious. I am taking them more and more day by day up here because of the opposing forces. The mo short term with big daily emas saying hey come on down for a visit been way to long you don't love us anymore. It took 16 months in 1996 then took out the 200 and 300. We are on month 13.5 so plenty of room for January but IT guys got to ask themselves do ya feel lucky punk (like dirty harry) for the extra single digit returns facing a near 8%-10% the other way.

[pdx5]

I will repeat again why market keeps going up. Simple....printing money and only game in town. I will go 100% flat after new years and go on a long hiatus. Gotta get in lot of golf before the body can't handle it any more. Shot a 76 last month! Can't wait to break my age!! No point in getting greedy and hold on to any risk at my age in 70's now. Wake me up if the market crashes. Check that...not if, but when. I may and may not get in even if it crashes. Best luck to all posters and lurkers! Trade safe!!

Edited by pdx5, 27 December 2013 - 02:22 PM.

[zoropb]

Just wondering what you all think about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4.

In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.

Most advancing price sequences show higher volume qualities at the correctional lows and/or price tops of the larger up trend when the majority becomes confident.

This mass trading psychology is equal and opposite during true bear market conditions where volume increases during the declining trend and shows lower volume qualities at the tops of the correctional highs and/or realized price bottoms as traders become disenchanted and look elsewhere to invest their money.

Bottom line, volume bars tend to be misconstrued and/or misused as to their value in reading a chart.

In bull markets, it's not the quantity of volume that counts as it would be the quality up to the final climax as the fear of being "left out" becomes too overwhelming to ignore.

Bear markets, on the other hand, are a whole different animal...they become more ferocious (to sell at any price) as time moves along and then finishes with a whimper.

Fib

I hear ya fib no doubt on your points as I mentioned they sure are holding them all the way up more than dumping but we do not have to go back to far, look at total volume for the run to 2000 and the one to 2007 increasing volume ever year but the top years. You do not think this one is a bit more fishy?

Edited by zoropb, 27 December 2013 - 02:18 PM.

[zoropb]

I will repeat again why market keeps going up.
Simple....printing money and only game in town.
I will go 100% flat after new years and go on a long hiatus.
Gotta get in lot of golf before the body can't handle it any more.
Shot a 76 last month! Can't wait to break my age!!
No point in getting greedy and hold on to any risk at my age in 70's now.
Wake me up if the market crashes.
Check that...not if, but when.
I may and may not get in even if it crashes.

Best luck to all posters and lurkers! Trade safe!!

now that is an investment I can get into plenty of

[dasein]

this should be on the commod board but you brought it up here - corn and grains might get a 2-3 week bounce but they are going to be basing for a while - usually the big move is in mid year. cattle looks like a C&H up so this argues for continued suppression of grains - and as Z said, deflation seems to be more the direction. OJ looks like it got ahead of itself this year like it usually does too. as to coffee - commercials do not look bullish to me - and this bounce brought coffee to near term resistance - so I am not sure if you were saying cofee hit resistance or is a buy - to mee it looks like resistance. sure would like to go skiing but i broke my foot last year and I probably should take up golf - but it is toooo boring and demanding in a technical way for my idea of recreational fun! have fun all and thanks for your thoughts. klh