I feel the same. But unlike most here looking short term, their in the trees but can't see the forest, I tend to look at weekly and monthly charts. After almost 5 years up, we start to wonder when and how it will end. We have some here who think it will never end, LOL! Well, everything comes to and end eventually.
But my thinking is along these lines. I look back to other periods like 66-74, the 90's where the market took off UP, the 2000 & 2007 tops and so on. So I am looking at monthly charts here not daily stuff. The S&P is still within the Bull Market that started in 2009, whether it is Secular or Cyclical. I believe Cyclical Bull. Much like 1973 before the next major decline happened. I suspect we are getting close to a turn down of some degree, but the Top is likely not in yet. In all these cases, the S&P pulled back to the monthly 20 SMA and rallied one more time off that low, set a new marginally higher high and turned down. That is likely to happen again. If it does, I would expect a pullback to the area around 1700 give or take, and then a rally one more time to exceed the current high by a few points, maybe 1850-1860. But until that happens, and if it continues higher, then that just raises the levels a bit higher.
Then I studied the Shille PE going back to the late 1800's. I have been hearing a couple traders talking about the market heading allot higher. I mean a new Bull Market heading above SPX 2000 or 2500. Well, there has never been a time that I can see, where from a Shiller PE of 26+, that the New Bull Market was born that went up for 15 to 20 years like the 80's and 90's or the mid 40's to mid 60's. Those always started with the PE well below 10 and somehere between 5 to 8.
So when I look at it from this perspective, I think we need to see a selloff that re-sets the balance of Price to Earnings to a point which Bull Markets are Born from. And that is not where we are now. Can the markets still go higher? Sure can, but history suggests that a re-set is coming in the future. My guess is later this year but who knows. Time will tell. Now that I have sort of took a stand on what I think, I am ready to get hammered by the nay sayers. LOL! Alan
Edited by MikeyG, 27 December 2013 - 01:55 PM.