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#31 CRUISENAL

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 08:07 PM

Thanks MickeyG and Pedro as well.

I just wanted to stimulate some thinking on the big picture. It's important that we know the Big Picture as trying to Short a Bull Market is useless, UNTIL there is some evidence that one may be at hand. The Bull is getting long in the tooth, But the Bear isn't growling much, Yet. So we just watch and wait. My thought is we will get that pullback, but only a pullback that we could get Long on. I had traded QLD & QID but switched to SSO & SDS as the LT charts are more fluid and not choppy. Very consistant IMO.

I will keep you guys in mind as the market moves foreword and when I see a change that may mean a serious turn, I will post. Right now I think we could see SPX 1700 and then another run up. This is similar at most tops and allows time for all the technicals to come together. Currently they are still Bullish with no major turn in sight, but that may change by April. If it drops in a week or so for 3-4 weeks, that will just set up a Buy SSO signal to hold thru the next run higher.

Anyway, that's what I see. If we were to see a smaller selloff and then a higher run above 1850-1860, then that would just move the setup up a bit on the chart. Have a good 2014! Alan





Hi Z,

I feel the same. But unlike most here looking short term, their in the trees but can't see the forest, I tend to look at weekly and monthly charts. After almost 5 years up, we start to wonder when and how it will end. We have some here who think it will never end, LOL! Well, everything comes to and end eventually.

But my thinking is along these lines. I look back to other periods like 66-74, the 90's where the market took off UP, the 2000 & 2007 tops and so on. So I am looking at monthly charts here not daily stuff. The S&P is still within the Bull Market that started in 2009, whether it is Secular or Cyclical. I believe Cyclical Bull. Much like 1973 before the next major decline happened. I suspect we are getting close to a turn down of some degree, but the Top is likely not in yet. In all these cases, the S&P pulled back to the monthly 20 SMA and rallied one more time off that low, set a new marginally higher high and turned down. That is likely to happen again. If it does, I would expect a pullback to the area around 1700 give or take, and then a rally one more time to exceed the current high by a few points, maybe 1850-1860. But until that happens, and if it continues higher, then that just raises the levels a bit higher.

Then I studied the Shille PE going back to the late 1800's. I have been hearing a couple traders talking about the market heading allot higher. I mean a new Bull Market heading above SPX 2000 or 2500. Well, there has never been a time that I can see, where from a Shiller PE of 26+, that the New Bull Market was born that went up for 15 to 20 years like the 80's and 90's or the mid 40's to mid 60's. Those always started with the PE well below 10 and somehere between 5 to 8.

So when I look at it from this perspective, I think we need to see a selloff that re-sets the balance of Price to Earnings to a point which Bull Markets are Born from. And that is not where we are now. Can the markets still go higher? Sure can, but history suggests that a re-set is coming in the future. My guess is later this year but who knows. Time will tell. Now that I have sort of took a stand on what I think, I am ready to get hammered by the nay sayers. LOL! Alan




Great post...



#32 da_cheif

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 11:08 PM

Just wondering what you all think about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4.

In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.

Most advancing price sequences show higher volume qualities at the correctional lows and/or price tops of the larger up trend when the majority becomes confident.

This mass trading psychology is equal and opposite during true bear market conditions where volume increases during the declining trend and shows lower volume qualities at the tops of the correctional highs and/or realized price bottoms as traders become disenchanted and look elsewhere to invest their money.

Bottom line, volume bars tend to be misconstrued and/or misused as to their value in reading a chart.

In bull markets, it's not the quantity of volume that counts as it would be the quality up to the final climax as the fear of being "left out" becomes too overwhelming to ignore.

Bear markets, on the other hand, are a whole different animal...they become more ferocious (to sell at any price) as time moves along and then finishes with a whimper.

Fib



>In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.< I couldnt have sed it better myself..truth is allways ignored ......wrong perceptions are born out of a lack of independent thinking......to many articulate incompetents keeping j6p.s worried....the bulls best friends.... ;)

#33 da_cheif

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Posted 27 December 2013 - 11:09 PM

Just wondering what you all think about 4 straight years of lower volume and yet magically we are higher after the 4.

In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.

Most advancing price sequences show higher volume qualities at the correctional lows and/or price tops of the larger up trend when the majority becomes confident.

This mass trading psychology is equal and opposite during true bear market conditions where volume increases during the declining trend and shows lower volume qualities at the tops of the correctional highs and/or realized price bottoms as traders become disenchanted and look elsewhere to invest their money.

Bottom line, volume bars tend to be misconstrued and/or misused as to their value in reading a chart.

In bull markets, it's not the quantity of volume that counts as it would be the quality up to the final climax as the fear of being "left out" becomes too overwhelming to ignore.

Bear markets, on the other hand, are a whole different animal...they become more ferocious (to sell at any price) as time moves along and then finishes with a whimper.

Fib



>In a general sense, humans are slow to embrace but quick to panic.< I couldnt have sed it better myself..truth is allways ignored ......wrong perceptions are born out of a lack of independent thinking......to many articulate incompetents keeping j6p.s worried....the bulls best friends.... ;)

#34 arbman

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 01:15 AM

The liquidity produced by the central banks is becoming less and less accessible to the masses but it is rather becoming systematically deployed in the financial markets with the computers. There is very little real economic participation in this price fixing process. The central banking hopes to achieve the price stability and some forced inflation and promote the economic activity or at least sustain it. Of course any excessive deviation caused by this process routinely crashes back eventually and requires even more pumping to stabilize. The central banks learned from these over the decades. The 1987 crash came precisely at a time there was pumping and a clear disconnect from the earnings growth. We are now entering into such an era too, but I think the real problems won't be obvious until late 2016 or early 2017. The easy growth after the financial crises is over. It really was a strong bounce back anyway. The economy is even more indebted, the creditworthiness is even less actually. However, the central banks wow to continue. If the growth comes back into 2015, there will be some sort of up trend, so I am more or less looking for 2017 or so to have a very abrupt reset from even higher levels. We should probably see 2004-2007 type of trading for 2014-2017, but much less of an up trend. Maybe 20-30% upside for 3 years, then a 50% haircut. Of course, the quicker the market goes higher, the stronger the odds of a crash unless a very strong growth emerges globally, probably unlikely. However, I think the growth will sustain unlike 2007-2009 era and the markets will get back on track quickly IMHO... I think the markets have begun a 20 year secular bull market...

Edited by arbman, 28 December 2013 - 01:21 AM.


#35 arbman

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 01:46 AM

I meant to say I am still thinking the growth will sustain beyond 2 qtrs of contraction. I think the world markets are in the early stages of a sustainable growth within the context of a secular bull market. Theoretically we should not see much lower than 1580, this suggests 3000 on SPX and perhaps 40-50% crash in 2017 or so. I am honestly looking something similar to 1983-1987 or 2003-2007, but then higher slowly like 1987 without another depression like 2007. I think the banking will remain strong. This has the potential to turn the country into another Argentina too, lots of wealthy and poor people...

Edited by arbman, 28 December 2013 - 01:47 AM.


#36 zoropb

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 08:07 AM

Good stuff guys thanks for all the input and anyone else to chime in. O. Usually the Dec. run last until around Jan. 3 on avg.

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#37 arbman

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 08:31 AM

We may see a bit more pull back on Monday, but next week will be also low volume and the bulls love manipulating higher.

#38 fib_1618

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 02:32 PM

We may see a bit more pull back on Monday, but next week will be also low volume and the bulls love manipulating higher.

How come we never hear about how the market is manipulated lower?

One would think that if the market is truly manipulated (or price fixed) it would work both ways.

Fib

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#39 da_cheif

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 02:39 PM

We may see a bit more pull back on Monday, but next week will be also low volume and the bulls love manipulating higher.

How come we never hear about how the market is manipulated lower?

One would think that if the market is truly manipulated (or price fixed) it would work both ways.

Fib

absolutley.....in fact every decline is and has been conducted in order to accomodate exchange insider short covering and accumulations in preparation for the next advance /.// the bigger and faster the decline the larger the advance is that follows......to suggest otherwise would be ignoring history......

Edited by da_cheif, 28 December 2013 - 02:40 PM.


#40 SemiBizz

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Posted 28 December 2013 - 03:29 PM

We may see a bit more pull back on Monday, but next week will be also low volume and the bulls love manipulating higher.

How come we never hear about how the market is manipulated lower?

One would think that if the market is truly manipulated (or price fixed) it would work both ways.

Fib



Yep, they sure are, here's a great example, the last major price fix to the downside... late June 2013

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
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