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Just wondering what you all think


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#41 arbman

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Posted 29 December 2013 - 12:48 PM

Sometimes sure, but the manipulation to take the stocks higher is more frequent than lower and it would be detrimental to the club to do otherwise, right? I am just talking about common sense here. The system has to respond with urgent and bigger increase in the monetary base after every decline to keep the same going. The day it won't be able to will also bring the end of their business anyway. At 100% debt to GDP, nobody should be too surprised if the ratio only increases from here until a total economic collapse, perhaps even in about 2-3 decades at this rate. I am thinking the next bear market will destroy the capitalism too because it stopped functioning correctly since Fed was created anyway. Fed could've been useful if it could actually grow the monetary base with the economic activity and depleting resources (causing inflation=survival of fittest). Instead, the monetary base is increased to offset the speculative excess of the previous boom with most benefits to Wall Street and this essentially destroys the productive jobs as they become economically impossible to sustain by the forced inflation upon them. I think there are two possible bad scenarios ahead for the next 30-40 years, a saturation of world population limiting debt growth by govts, and the oil becoming uneconomical limiting the growth (and actually threatening of USD's reserve status). With these two, you get worldwide instability. The banking will surely collapse, if these two happen.

#42 da_cheif

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Posted 29 December 2013 - 12:56 PM

Sometimes sure, but the manipulation to take the stocks higher is more frequent than lower and it would be detrimental to the club to do otherwise, right? I am just talking about common sense here.

The system has to respond with urgent and bigger increase in the monetary base after every decline to keep the same going. The day it won't be able to will also bring the end of their business anyway. At 100% debt to GDP, nobody should be too surprised if the ratio only increases from here until a total economic collapse, perhaps even in about 2-3 decades at this rate.

I am thinking the next bear market will destroy the capitalism too because it stopped functioning correctly since Fed was created anyway. Fed could've been useful if it could actually grow the monetary base with the economic activity and depleting resources (causing inflation=survival of fittest).

Instead, the monetary base is increased to offset the speculative excess of the previous boom with most benefits to Wall Street and this essentially destroys the productive jobs as they become economically impossible to sustain by the forced inflation upon them.

I think there are two possible bad scenarios ahead for the next 30-40 years, a saturation of world population limiting debt growth by govts, and the oil becoming uneconomical limiting the growth (and actually threatening of USD's reserve status). With these two, you get worldwide instability. The banking will surely collapse, if these two happen.

so why do you worry yourself so much...leave it to the professional worriers and enjoy your short life ;)

#43 SemiBizz

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Posted 29 December 2013 - 01:00 PM

Sometimes sure, but the manipulation to take the stocks higher is more frequent than lower and it would be detrimental to the club to do otherwise, right? I am just talking about common sense here


Sure, we all know it takes forever for the bull markets to move...

It only takes 17 days to wipe out 1/3 of the Nasdaq or SPX.

This is all about pattern recognition, knowing when that big move is occuring or about to occur.

But believe me, when those markets went down that fast, it was engineered.

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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#44 arbman

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Posted 29 December 2013 - 06:22 PM

so why do you worry yourself so much...leave it to the professional worriers and enjoy your short life ;)


I guess you don't have any kids...

#45 thespookyone

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Posted 29 December 2013 - 06:46 PM

Hay, Z! The larger price / internal mo windows suggest price advance. There is no "top" being formed here. That's what I think.


Fully agree. And to my trading, that probably matters most.

" I am in the we will see 2000+ spx camp before it's over though. "

Fully agree with that too, Z. And that speaks of opportunity :)