The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.
In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.
How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.
Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.
Good luck and good trading in 2014!
PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....
Edited by SilentOne, 07 January 2014 - 12:32 AM.