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Re: The 4 year Cycle


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#1 SilentOne

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 12:30 AM

Nope not dead yet. I haven't been keeping up with the markets much of late and I haven't wanted to say much in the prediction category until now. I underestimated the bullishness of 2013.

The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.

In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain



The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.

How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.

Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.


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Good luck and good trading in 2014!

cheers,

john

PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....

Edited by SilentOne, 07 January 2014 - 12:32 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#2 diogenes227

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 04:30 PM

Thanks for the update. Much appreciated. Would really like to see more cycle talk around here. Where's Echo these days?
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

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#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 05:05 PM

Good to hear from you again John, stop in more often, your insights are appreciated... ;)
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#4 SilentOne

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Posted 28 January 2014 - 06:33 PM

J.M. Hurst and The 4 year Presidential Cycle

http://sentienttrade...f.uNEeYSIr.dpbs

re: $SPX

I will post a short term look in the coming days. I will assume that we will see a 20 week Hurst cycle low here this week. A rally of some kind will continue into Feb. and likely fail by early March. Beware what comes in the March to July period. GLGT.

cheers,

john

PS Its good to see you guys still posting here.

Edited by SilentOne, 28 January 2014 - 06:38 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#5 SilentOne

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 07:00 PM

Posted at iHub today. My last post for a while.

pmiles,

Yes, I have the 4.5 year Hurst cycle low as Nov. 2012, a contracted 4.5 year cycle. That is the basis of my post in Jan. And why we should be on the lookout for a problem here in this 20 week cycle. I expect a straddle low (4.5 year) to form by the summer.

You know that Hurst never considered cycles to invert. The way I look at it is this. If a major cycle fails and puts in a high where you expected a low, then the trend has likely changed.

I'll go to today's situation. Let's say that the 18 month cycle, which has been running ~15-16 months (from 2009) was actually the early Feb. low. And if the major trend for this 9 year cycle were to change, then that low in Feb. would eventually fail to hold. I call that a cycle failure and it will likely occur here.

The same thing happened in 2007. We all saw the Aug. 2007 low as an 18 month and 4.5 year Hurst cycle low. But when it failed to hold later in 2008, you knew there was a big problem with the cyclic picture. Again I call this an example of cycle failure.

Price action will tell us a lot in the coming weeks and we'll see how we make the next 10 week low.


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain