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Rising Wedge Should Be Broken Today


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#11 blustar

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:29 PM

and Fib, yes I will live by sword, not die. If you all just took a gander at what I brought to you as far evidence, you wouldn't be so skeptical. I did a lot of work to figure this out.

What you're continuing to miss here is that the market is limited by the degree of money that's in the system at any one particular time. If money were leading lower, then you might get these kind of "crash" targets, but it's not. But I do agree with the Elliott flat idea, although we're within hours of completion, and flats are patterns of strength when they occur in strongly advancing trends.

Anyway, another 80-100 SPX points lower from here, even within a week, would need help of a detonation of a nuclear bomb to produce such an result at this time.

As I said this morning, it will pay off later in not getting too greedy, and your opportunity to "hit and run" has probably passed.

Fib

And if I'm right about tomorrow, how will you explain it then? Are there things other than A-Bombs that can cause this index to fall 5% in one day? If so, what then possibly?

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#12 fib_1618

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:22 PM

And if I'm right about tomorrow, how will you explain it then?

I won't need to...because it won't happen....it can't.

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#13 SemiBizz

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:36 PM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t39399988065&r=1390530532303$.png

You know, I don't see how you can rate this chart as anything more than neutral. It's failed to break out of this Fibonacci Hell it's currently trapped in... I think there's a stronger case for a test of the lower Fib at 1810 than 1850 at the present time... But the best I can come up with is still Neutral.

I will say this though, after this long sideways pattern, we're laying the ground work for a huge, huge move.
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#14 Mr Dev

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:49 PM

nice work blu..


anything can happen.
much of the work, you've generously shared, also fits my work .... which also fits the FEDs liquidity for the month end .


i shared this email around noon time.
...yesterday the FEDS pumped 2.5 billion in and the markets went up, but today only 1 billion and they drop.

the FEDs are starting to change the way they allocate /manipulate !
meaning i only see 2, 4 billion days this month.
all other days in between are only 1 billion followed by 2.5 billion.

the 2.5 billion days are mostly Fridays .. and the last 4 billion day is not until Friday Jan 31st.

so tomorrow is a 2.5 Bil-Friday will help to save the markets somewhat.....

but ..next week
monday is weak w/only 1 Bil,
tuesday is 2.5Bil
wednesday is 0
thursday is weak 1 B...
......and Friday is 4 Bil.

knowing this ...is also knowing when the markets will be weak and when they will bounce.

Edited by Mr Dev, 23 January 2014 - 09:51 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#15 blustar

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:53 PM

And if I'm right about tomorrow, how will you explain it then?

I won't need to...because it won't happen....it can't.

Fib

No need to answer because... it can't..wow what a great answer!! I'm saying it is almost impossible not to do it and give you the charts,that explains the multiple reasons and info as to why I believe it will, and you are saying it is impossible for it to fall 5% with nothing to back it up except for a money flow chart. If you have other reasons, why don't you explain them here? I'd like to to hear them.

Blessings,

 

blu

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#16 blustar

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 09:58 PM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t39399988065&r=1390530532303$.png

You know, I don't see how you can rate this chart as anything more than neutral. It's failed to break out of this Fibonacci Hell it's currently trapped in... I think there's a stronger case for a test of the lower Fib at 1810 than 1850 at the present time... But the best I can come up with is still Neutral.

I will say this though, after this long sideways pattern, we're laying the ground work for a huge, huge move.

Well for one thing, you have increasing volume on a down day, today. Other than that, with that chart, I would say it is hard to tell. But looks also at the MACD and RSI divergences. The charts at my site explain it all. Also, you say the lack of movement is telling. Yes, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing on the daily, so the inevitable is a break out one way or the other. Now with volume, the tell is down isn't it? Or?

Blessings,

 

blu

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#17 blustar

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:00 PM

nice work blu..


anything can happen.
much of the work, you've generously shared, also fits my work .... which also fits the FEDs liquidity for the month end .


i shared this email around noon time.
...yesterday the FEDS pumped 2.5 billion in and the markets went up, but today only 1 billion and they drop.

the FEDs are starting to change the way they allocate /manipulate !
meaning i only see 2, 4 billion days this month.
all other days in between are only 1 billion followed by 2.5 billion.

the 2.5 billion days are mostly Fridays .. and the last 4 billion day is not until Friday Jan 31st.

so tomorrow is a 2.5 Bil-Friday will help to save the markets somewhat.....

but ..next week
monday is weak w/only 1 Bil,
tuesday is 2.5Bil
wednesday is 0
thursday is weak 1 B...
......and Friday is 4 Bil.

knowing this ...is also knowing when the markets will be weak and when they will bounce.

Thanks Dev, preciate it!!

Blessings,

 

blu

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#18 Mr Dev

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:25 PM

from what i see the CMF money flow charts look a lot like blu's OBV charts....pointing down after hugely diverging..

but not diverging so much is the NDX ,,.thus ..one reason for its resilience but still pointing down during the last few weeks
of upward price action

but first at the top of the charts is the RUT/IWM which looks really really bad...as its moved up stronger along with the transports,
but double top diverged and that looks like it will eventually revert much lower, and or totally crack.

the INDU also looks bad as does the SPX with double top divergences. although the SPX is potentially looking like the best dirty rag of the bunch
and a bit more correlated to price than the INDU and RUT but all in all these look like crap.
well the FEDs have done it again.


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Edited by Mr Dev, 23 January 2014 - 10:31 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#19 SemiBizz

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:28 PM

Well for one thing, you have increasing volume on a down day, today. Other than that, with that chart, I would say it is hard to tell. But looks also at the MACD and RSI divergences. The charts at my site explain it all. Also, you say the lack of movement is telling. Yes, the Bollinger Bands are squeezing on the daily, so the inevitable is a break out one way or the other. Now with volume, the tell is down isn't it? Or?


We measure from high to high and low to low. You have a neutral read here because we measure against the benchmarks here... on the one hand with stronger volume we broke the 1/14 low, but with stronger volume we failed to break the 1/13 low...

There are two bearish objective targets. We just look for the strongest volume candle, and we see 1810, that is the primary target. We have made a couple of attempts to break it down and failed to test that last day of volume low. The secondary target if that one is broken is at about 1768. We failed on the previous attempts on lighter volume. This market does not need volume to push higher... but it DOES NEED VOLUME to go lower. There are no FREE PASSES here for the bears, that 1810 has to break with wide price spread and volume and close substantially under it, then we can look at the 2nd target. Which may not be as hard to test as this stubborn "Fib-assisted" Volume Support Low....

So targets are fine, and I can literally draw an extensive support map to the downside when and if we finally turn south for more than a pullback, and all major declines start with sharp pullbacks. The benchmark is 30% in 18 trading days. Some people have short memories and consider that impossible, but we lived through it in 2000 and 2008. The bottom line though, once you understand the true definition of support based on volume, you will find targeting easier, and know right away if the volume and price momentum has the juice to get you to those long targets... for me this business is one step at a time. For me, I have to see 1810 broken and then we can calculate the next target...
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#20 Mr Dev

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Posted 23 January 2014 - 10:48 PM

Semi i often use a similar methodology to yours on multiple time frames as a quick guide using just the oscillators... the example here in looking at just the CMF charts i posted would be, one could expect prices to correct the divergence by returning to price levels of the previous CMF highs (like volume) of the 2nd quarter of 2013...and that's a big correction. however to start, i would consider a half-way back move towards those levels as an initial move or short to medium term target for some balance to be restored. Previous CMF "confirmed" price highs at a glance for ea index now are : RUT/IWM would be 950-975 Dow 14750- 14250 SPX 1575 NDX N/A

Edited by Mr Dev, 23 January 2014 - 10:49 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!