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Bears Totally Dropped The Ball, New Highs Imminent?


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#31 da_cheif

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 10:47 PM

[quote name='CLK' date='Feb 23 2014, 08:47 PM' post='686175']
Here is the way I look at it, if one had bought the top in 2011, they were up only 25 SPX points all the way into Dec. 2012, that is 20 months.

Next, they held the market back until Jan. 2013 which was a big gain year, then they waited until Jan. 2014 to sell it, now why would anyone think they would do a repeat of 2013 ? I sure don't.
[/quote

ur rite 2014 is gonna make 2013 look like childs play....watch the sky ;)

#32 da_cheif

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Posted 23 February 2014 - 10:51 PM

Fib, you always post these kind of statements right into a top, then you disappear. I expect no different going forward.

:bye:

Fib




You may end up right, I just see a poor risk/reward being long the market right here. We will just have to wait a few months to find out who was wrong.



few months....as in the last 60?? 675 ono...snort

#33 fib_1618

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 02:39 AM

Did your methodology gave downside technical target of SPX 765 in 2001/2 or that of 666 in 2008/9?

Sort of.

What follows is partially taken from the market chat transcript of October 7th, 2008 that went over measuring gap targets, but it wasn't until the end of the year when we started to get better numbers for the eventual bottom in 2009. Unfortunately, we took an extended break from the chats from January of 2009 until June of 2010, so there isn't anything, script wise, that pointed to the actual bottom other than the posts found throughout the TW message boards (where you can also find ALL of the chat transcripts from 2005-2008 for your added review). You will have to take my word for it that, by extension, we were on the right side of things in the 2002-2003 period as well since all of those message board posts were lost when Mark and Holly upgraded the message board to the current software format. Maybe those who were around in those days, especially in early 2003 when I kept making posts of the tremendous (historic) amounts of money that were coming in prior to the bear market war lows of March, might take a moment to verify the discussions of that time.

Anyway, I've also included (as a point of reference) the direct link for the entire October 2nd chat that included the crash call prior to the Dow losing some 2500 intraday points the following week though I'm sure my critics will still call me charlatan in their attempt to deflect their own analytical weaknesses.

Fib

2008-10-07 19:04:55 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: great call about the crash, fib!
2008-10-07 19:05:06 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: any land
2008-10-07 19:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the warning signs were there
2008-10-07 19:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...so the Dow has now lost 1700 points in 8 trading days
2008-10-07 19:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have broken many chart support levels as well
2008-10-07 19:06:04 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Is yesterday's gap down the mid point of this wave?
2008-10-07 19:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-07 19:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which presents us now with downside objectives to work with
2008-10-07 19:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I did some figuring before I came into the room
2008-10-07 19:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are now going through a 3rd wave decline where we have a series of 1's and 2's behind us
2008-10-07 19:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but from a chartist stand point, yesterday's gap lower would be considered a "measuring gap"
2008-10-07 19:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who don't know, measuring gaps occur during accelerated phases in a price trend
2008-10-07 19:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's where the "point of recognition" for the same price pattern occurs
2008-10-07 19:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to generate price objectives when these gaps appear, it's a simple process of measuring what came before and then pushing forward the objective from this same mid point
2008-10-07 19:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with this in mind, these are now the downside objectives for the Dow, and see if these numbers jive with your own work
2008-10-07 19:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 8917, 8533, 7263, and ultimately, 6202
2008-10-07 19:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I have found is that many of the objectives seem to lie within about 10% BELOW the lows of 2002
2008-10-07 19:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the SPX - 899, 851, 724, and ultimately, 588
2008-10-07 19:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that these price levels are areas in which support might be seen, but it doesn't tell us what exactly will happen when areas are challenged
2008-10-07 19:12:02 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: are these fib extensions?
2008-10-07 19:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...these are based off the center point of the measuring gap - basic bar chart analysis
2008-10-07 19:12:53 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: distance from previous pivot highs?
2008-10-07 19:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some of these numbers might also be within reach of Fib extensions or other methods of measurement
2008-10-07 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-10-07 19:13:17 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ty
2008-10-07 19:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when we get to the DP stuff I will direct you to the points in which these measurements are taken
2008-10-07 19:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX - 1126, 927, 845, and ultimately, 661
2008-10-07 19:14:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: are we supposed to hit all four targets on each index? or is it if we break the first objective to the downside, we go to the next one
2008-10-07 19:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ Composite - 1532, 1377, 1299, and ultimately, 989
2008-10-07 19:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we remain in gear to the downside

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#34 risk_management

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 09:43 AM

Fib do you trade in your own account or you just provide service?

#35 andiron

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 10:15 AM

FIB did make a crash call in nov 2011..thanksgiving time..i remember. Alas, it did not pan out

#36 thespookyone

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 12:11 PM

Did your methodology gave downside technical target of SPX 765 in 2001/2 or that of 666 in 2008/9?

Sort of.

What follows is partially taken from the market chat transcript of October 7th, 2008 that went over measuring gap targets, but it wasn't until the end of the year when we started to get better numbers for the eventual bottom in 2009. Unfortunately, we took an extended break from the chats from January of 2009 until June of 2010, so there isn't anything, script wise, that pointed to the actual bottom other than the posts found throughout the TW message boards (where you can also find ALL of the chat transcripts from 2005-2008 for your added review). You will have to take my word for it that, by extension, we were on the right side of things in the 2002-2003 period as well since all of those message board posts were lost when Mark and Holly upgraded the message board to the current software format. Maybe those who were around in those days, especially in early 2003 when I kept making posts of the tremendous (historic) amounts of money that were coming in prior to the bear market war lows of March, might take a moment to verify the discussions of that time.

Anyway, I've also included (as a point of reference) the direct link for the entire October 2nd chat that included the crash call prior to the Dow losing some 2500 intraday points the following week though I'm sure my critics will still call me charlatan in their attempt to deflect their own analytical weaknesses.

Fib

2008-10-07 19:04:55 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: great call about the crash, fib!
2008-10-07 19:05:06 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: any land
2008-10-07 19:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the warning signs were there
2008-10-07 19:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...so the Dow has now lost 1700 points in 8 trading days
2008-10-07 19:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have broken many chart support levels as well
2008-10-07 19:06:04 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Is yesterday's gap down the mid point of this wave?
2008-10-07 19:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-07 19:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which presents us now with downside objectives to work with
2008-10-07 19:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I did some figuring before I came into the room
2008-10-07 19:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are now going through a 3rd wave decline where we have a series of 1's and 2's behind us
2008-10-07 19:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but from a chartist stand point, yesterday's gap lower would be considered a "measuring gap"
2008-10-07 19:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who don't know, measuring gaps occur during accelerated phases in a price trend
2008-10-07 19:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's where the "point of recognition" for the same price pattern occurs
2008-10-07 19:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to generate price objectives when these gaps appear, it's a simple process of measuring what came before and then pushing forward the objective from this same mid point
2008-10-07 19:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so with this in mind, these are now the downside objectives for the Dow, and see if these numbers jive with your own work
2008-10-07 19:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 8917, 8533, 7263, and ultimately, 6202
2008-10-07 19:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I have found is that many of the objectives seem to lie within about 10% BELOW the lows of 2002
2008-10-07 19:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the SPX - 899, 851, 724, and ultimately, 588
2008-10-07 19:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that these price levels are areas in which support might be seen, but it doesn't tell us what exactly will happen when areas are challenged
2008-10-07 19:12:02 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: are these fib extensions?
2008-10-07 19:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...these are based off the center point of the measuring gap - basic bar chart analysis
2008-10-07 19:12:53 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: distance from previous pivot highs?
2008-10-07 19:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some of these numbers might also be within reach of Fib extensions or other methods of measurement
2008-10-07 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-10-07 19:13:17 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ty
2008-10-07 19:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when we get to the DP stuff I will direct you to the points in which these measurements are taken
2008-10-07 19:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX - 1126, 927, 845, and ultimately, 661
2008-10-07 19:14:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: are we supposed to hit all four targets on each index? or is it if we break the first objective to the downside, we go to the next one
2008-10-07 19:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ Composite - 1532, 1377, 1299, and ultimately, 989
2008-10-07 19:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we remain in gear to the downside



Was there, it happened, LOL, LOVELY.

Edited by thespookyone, 24 February 2014 - 12:12 PM.


#37 fib_1618

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 12:47 PM

FIB did make a crash call in nov 2011..thanksgiving time..i remember.
Alas, it did not pan out

Alas..you once again have poor memory skills.

Never called a crash...I was only "concerned".

But then again, there were others who were calling bear market at that time...guess you might have jumbled everything into one nice neat little ball causing your confusion.

One thing about archives...you can look up what actually happened instead on relying on your memory when calling out others.

Fib

During the Depths of a Bottom

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#38 andiron

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 01:54 PM

well you had your BETS chart on the board showing crash territory...and you had fervently advised against going long at that point what turned out to be a great buying opportunity... but then again making calls in a market is like making weather prediction...many make it on the teevee...and sometimes they are right!

#39 fib_1618

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 02:23 PM

well you had your BETS chart on the board showing crash territory...

Again...your misinterpretation of something as simple as an oscillator has always been one of your Achilles heals.

Why don't you stick to building your own reputation instead of trying to bring others down to your level....it doesn't become you.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#40 andiron

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Posted 24 February 2014 - 02:51 PM

i will let you have the last word... ;)