39 replies to this topic

[An Ant]

NYAD was at ath's at the 2010 and 2011 tops, I doubt you got out of the way of either of those, 15% in 2010 and 20% in 2011.

Assume what you want...it won't change your giving up on yourself.

Fib

You do realize that a stop can't be placed on a 401k, you can get out but only at eod prices, so the market can creep down a few percent
and then the next day be limit down, nothing you can do about it. That is why I am extra careful with that money. Like I said break the line over 17k
and I will consider adding longs.

CLK,

Forget EOD or intraday prices, we all know that you can't TIME 401(K) let alone the market.
How many times in your life you have seen market open limit down or up? The only time I have seen S&P futures being limit down was when Boehner called off vote on budget deal in 2012 for taxing anyone making over 1MM. (By end of trading day it was immaterial). If you are so wary then don't use equity funds in your 401(k). Let the money sit in cash. And are you sure you want go long above DJIA 17K? What if it's head fake?

[thespookyone]

Dow 6,000 looks possible over the next 24 months.

To zero hedge, maybe. Technicals paint a far different picture, imho.

[CLK]

Dow 6,000 looks possible over the next 24 months.

To zero hedge, maybe. Technicals paint a far different picture, imho.

Yeah, but how much is left before the top ? Law of averages says enough time has gone by already. If we go straight up to 2450 SPX then I
made a big mistake, if no more than 5% up from here then I am in a good zone for shorting. Sky high internals are misleading, they may prevent
6,000 Dow but have no effect on preventing 12,500.

Edited by CLK, 23 February 2014 - 05:41 PM.

[CLK]

http://www.zerohedge...hits-record-low

http://www.zerohedge...2007-bubble-pea


I think if the market hits new highs this month and the Feb. margin debt data shows a lower high than Dec. then the top is in. We won't get those numbers until
late March probably or April. I don't understand why the Jan. numbers have not been released yet.

[fib_1618]

Law of averages says enough time has gone by already. If we go straight up to 2450 SPX then I
made a big mistake, if no more than 5% up from here then I am in a good zone for shorting. Sky high internals are misleading, they may prevent
6,000 Dow but have no effect on preventing 12,500.

The law of averages? Boy, talk about "backtesting"!

The upside technical target for the SPX 2250.

The sky high internals wouldn't be that way unless there was enough liquidity to get us there.

More importantly, the sky high internals will keep any or all periods of price decay buoyant enough to keep prices from trending lower in any important manner.

For example...January.

And if you're limited in your trading with your 401K, then I suggest you seek out a better custodian that will allow you more flexibility.

Excuses will not make you money...only study, consistency and discipline will.

Fib

P.S. The sooner you stop reading the crap spewed from Zero Hedge, the better off you'll be in your trading account.

[CLK]

Fib, you always post these kind of statements right into a top, then you disappear. I expect no different going forward.

[fib_1618]

Fib, you always post these kind of statements right into a top, then you disappear. I expect no different going forward.

Fib

[An Ant]

The upside technical target for the SPX 2250.

Fib,

Did your methodology gave downside technical target of SPX 765 in 2001/2 or that of 666 in 2008/9?

Just curious. Not looking for a free ride.

Regards

[CLK]

Fib, you always post these kind of statements right into a top, then you disappear. I expect no different going forward.

Fib

You may end up right, I just see a poor risk/reward being long the market right here. We will just have to wait a few months to find out who was wrong.

[CLK]

Here is the way I look at it, if one had bought the top in 2011, they were up only 25 SPX points all the way into Dec. 2012, that is 20 months. Next, they held the market back until Jan. 2013 which was a big gain year, then they waited until Jan. 2014 to sell it, now why would anyone think they would do a repeat of 2013 ? I sure don't.