37 replies to this topic

[blustar]

Russia has just announced its intentions this morning to invade the Crimea (which is part of the Ukraine). As I said earlier on this week, watch Mar 1 as Libra goes retrograde (war-like). Tomorrow Saturn goes retro in Scorpio.The negative energy that came upon the market last Friday where the SPX came down 20 points off the top, was what I was talking about last week. I miscalculated the Feb 27 Bisector low to Feb 28, but had said earlier that Thur to Friday should be up into the new moon and that Feb 27 was the bisector low. I did not expect higher high over Monday's top near 1858, as the formation became "once again" irregular.

This market is highly irregular and we have gone though a Mercury retro period (ending Feb 28), where Merriman said: expect the unexpected, trends lines will be broken, it will go further than expected and things will get exaggerated. Well, he was right. Nothing made sense, the volume did not confirm, but the A/D line went to a new high. The cycles instead of running 4/8/16, went mainly 5/10/20 (and are still doing it).

The Delta Volume was so weak on this rise that it is a house of cards waiting to crash. Either we hold 1773 on Mar 6 or crash through to 1668. The spinning top was followed last time by a small doji star. We'll see on Monday how things play out, but things are heating up fast between Putin and Obama even as I write this.

The SKEW Index just hit 135, so fear is out there. George Soros recently upped his hedged bet for a down side move in the markets and I'm sure he is in the know as to what is really going on.

Bottom line: Either SPX 1773 or 1668 by Thursday next week. If 1668, then 1945 by Mar 27, otherwise there won't be enough pull back to launch to the top of the major rising wedge by then.

Charts

[fib_1618]

Thanks for taking the time in putting the post together. Fib

[AChartist]

Only problem with these interpretations is that it is ultimately about, dollar going away, all these countries are folding from the export of dollar collapse, which has a different effect on conversion rates of tangibles and equity. I don't know what way it breaks.

[cycletimer]

Russia has just announced its intentions this morning to invade the Crimea (which is part of the Ukraine). As I said earlier on this week, watch Mar 1 as Libra goes retrograde (war-like). Tomorrow Saturn goes retro in Scorpio.The negative energy that came upon the market last Friday where the SPX came down 20 points off the top, was what I was talking about last week. I miscalculated the Feb 27 Bisector low to Feb 28, but had said earlier that Thur to Friday should be up into the new moon and that Feb 27 was the bisector low. I did not expect higher high over Monday's top near 1858, as the formation became "once again" irregular.

This market is highly irregular and we have gone though a Mercury retro period (ending Feb 28), where Merriman said: expect the unexpected, trends lines will be broken, it will go further than expected and things will get exaggerated. Well, he was right. Nothing made sense, the volume did not confirm, but the A/D line went to a new high. The cycles instead of running 4/8/16, went mainly 5/10/20 (and are still doing it).

The Delta Volume was so weak on this rise that it is a house of cards waiting to crash. Either we hold 1773 on Mar 6 or crash through to 1668. The spinning top was followed last time by a small doji star. We'll see on Monday how things play out, but things are heating up fast between Putin and Obama even as I write this.

The SKEW Index just hit 135, so fear is out there. George Soros recently upped his hedged bet for a down side move in the markets and I'm sure he is in the know as to what is really going on.

Bottom line: Either SPX 1773 or 1668 by Thursday next week. If 1668, then 1945 by Mar 27, otherwise there won't be enough pull back to launch to the top of the major rising wedge by then.

Charts

Blu,
I was concerned about your miscalculations as I read your posts this past week. I follow most of the same time count cycles as you but I don't delve into solar/astro cycles, though I believe they have merit. I was getting very cautious in the face of these rallies to new ATH's and positioned (though a little early!) accordingly.
Early next week is a crash window...began Feb 27th up thru March 3-5th....and since these dates are in accordance with the 4 week cycle (low Feb 4/5th), it only makes ince that we've peaked in this time frame.
Readers, I am not calling for a crash, this is simply a window of time to be extra cautious and not go crazy on the Long-side. I still remain Long high-quality stocks as my "core" positions and I am short naked puts on several stocks, with strike prices well below current market.
I am hedged with a short-sale of Expedia (EXPE) from 79.80 & 79.30 ... and I have speculative short positions in EDZ and EEV as I believe emerging markets will take the brunt of this forthcoming sell-off if and when it happens.
I do have a downside price target of 1770-1775 (your aforementioned target), if that level doesn't hold, who knows? You may well be vindicated with that lower level, not sure about that date of March 6th as it seems a little soon, but mini-crashes happen in only a few days so it could happen. I'll never say the word "impossible" when responding to yours or anyone's posts. March 11th is a date that could spell bottom if it's not over by your March 6th date.
CT

[tradesurfer]

Hey Blu, Are you familiar at all with the April 21st to 22nd date astro wise ? Pesavento is saying the markets will be pulled down heavily into this date because it is of many orders of magnitude significant than other typical astro dates. I think Arch Crawford is saying similar. He said another time such an astro setup like this occurred was the day the Berlin Wall Fell, so that had nothing to do with stocks but it was still significant. But I remember there was this August 2010 ?? date that was also supposed to be a huge Astro date like a grand cross and stocks did bottom on that date right on the nose. If we look at the structure of SPY on the weekly chart, we see that there is some resemblance to the May 2011 to August 2011 time frame. More specifically SPY rallied up into July 2011 trying to make a new high but then suffered a dramatic reversal on the weekly chart and cascaded down for about 5 weeks. The current SPY structure shows that we have made a very marginal new high so that differs from the 2011 experience, however if we extrapolate out 4 to 6 weeks from here we can see that it does seem to lead into this April 21st date that Pesavento is talking about. Perhaps there is a roadmap now for stocks to move from current juncture into a major low near April 21st.....

[cycletimer]

Hey Blu,

Are you familiar at all with the April 21st to 22nd date astro wise ?

Pesavento is saying the markets will be pulled down heavily into this date because it is of many orders of magnitude significant than other typical astro dates. I think Arch Crawford is saying similar. He said another time such an astro setup like this occurred was the day the Berlin Wall Fell, so that had nothing to do with stocks but it was still significant.

But I remember there was this August 2010 ?? date that was also supposed to be a huge Astro date like a grand cross and stocks did bottom on that date right on the nose.

If we look at the structure of SPY on the weekly chart, we see that there is some resemblance to the May 2011 to August 2011 time frame. More specifically SPY rallied up into July 2011 trying to make a new high but then suffered a dramatic reversal on the weekly chart and cascaded down for about 5 weeks.

The current SPY structure shows that we have made a very marginal new high so that differs from the 2011 experience, however if we extrapolate out 4 to 6 weeks from here we can see that it does seem to lead into this April 21st date that Pesavento is talking about.

Perhaps there is a roadmap now for stocks to move from current juncture into a major low near April 21st.....

If you don't mind me chiming in here....be careful with Pesavento....I am aware he's on TFNN on a weekly basis but he's been wrong many more times than he's been right... almost any trader on this forum has better performance than Pesavento. First of all, this year (2014) will be very volatile but bias will remain UP. There will be periods like Jan thru Feb 4/5 that will be down and each down period will be a bit more severe than previous one. So last one was 5%, look for 7% on next downdraft and the one after that 10%, but every rebound will be more swift and recover fully. I am expecting new highs by May and after trading rage bound Summer I expect newer highs in Fall...So to pick a date that far in the future and say we'll be down severely is a crap-shoot at best.
As always, price rules and time is secondary. I have made many calls in the past using cycles and 2013 was a good year for me, trading. This past January my account was +4% but I am sure there are some folks here that were much better than my measly 4%. These days I can't forecast well past 5 TD's in the future. All I can say is that I am expecting downside volatility over next week to two weeks. That's all and I am positioned to take advantage of it. Again, careful with Pesavento and/or Arch Crawford. I enjoy them both but I don't place $ on their calls.
CT

[Dex]

How about adding North Korea and a financial crisis in China?

[The End]

I'm coming out of retirement for this one. First off, since when has Astro been reliable on any basis more than what can be construed as a blind squirrel finding a nut on the ground or a broken watch being right twice a day. Every once in a while the Bradley turns seem to be somewhat close to an approximation of accuracy but, to constantly call for multi % point moves both up and down within days of one another on a regular basis is an exercise in futility. Blu has been doin this for years on this site and to be honest, it became tiring a while ago. The only reason why I am typing these words is because I would feel a little bad if he happened to find this nut on the ground or his "watch" was deemed accurate and some more folks would wind up torn and twisted at the bottom of a proverbial cliff. Caveat Emptor.

[tommyt]

Russia has just announced its intentions this morning to invade the Crimea (which is part of the Ukraine). As I said earlier on this week, watch Mar 1 as Libra goes retrograde (war-like). Tomorrow Saturn goes retro in Scorpio.The negative energy that came upon the market last Friday where the SPX came down 20 points off the top, was what I was talking about last week. I miscalculated the Feb 27 Bisector low to Feb 28, but had said earlier that Thur to Friday should be up into the new moon and that Feb 27 was the bisector low. I did not expect higher high over Monday's top near 1858, as the formation became "once again" irregular.

This market is highly irregular and we have gone though a Mercury retro period (ending Feb 28), where Merriman said: expect the unexpected, trends lines will be broken, it will go further than expected and things will get exaggerated. Well, he was right. Nothing made sense, the volume did not confirm, but the A/D line went to a new high. The cycles instead of running 4/8/16, went mainly 5/10/20 (and are still doing it).

The Delta Volume was so weak on this rise that it is a house of cards waiting to crash. Either we hold 1773 on Mar 6 or crash through to 1668. The spinning top was followed last time by a small doji star. We'll see on Monday how things play out, but things are heating up fast between Putin and Obama even as I write this.

The SKEW Index just hit 135, so fear is out there. George Soros recently upped his hedged bet for a down side move in the markets and I'm sure he is in the know as to what is really going on.

Bottom line: Either SPX 1773 or 1668 by Thursday next week. If 1668, then 1945 by Mar 27, otherwise there won't be enough pull back to launch to the top of the major rising wedge by then.

Charts

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs, pullbacks to support and uptrend lines occur. After uptrend lines and support areas are violated at numerous spots, the mkt becomes vulnerable and more susceptible to bigger declines. In fairness Blu, as good as I gave you credit for the spot on call before the last pullback, its been ice cold since.

[An Ant]

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs,

I always see this mentioned.

But...

How many crashes have happened so far to derive this statistics?
What's the definition of crash?
As far as I understand the 1929, 1987 crashes happened off of highs.

Edited by An Ant, 01 March 2014 - 08:35 PM.