If you don't mind me chiming in here....be careful with Pesavento....I am aware he's on TFNN on a weekly basis but he's been wrong many more times than he's been right...
Yes I agree his record has been less then stellar as he has been almost constantly trying to pick tops for years now...
However he does still deserve credit for very specifically calling the October cluster selloff in 2008 very precisely weeks before it happened and also the exact date of the low in March of 2009, both of which were Astro related calls.
I have to give him credit for the August 2010 Astro low call as well.
Yes, a good portion of his other calls are seemingly unforgivable. I guess everyone has to make their own judgement.
But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market.
I suppose the market action that shows up the next 2 weeks will more or less decide that.
First off, since when has Astro been reliable on any basis more than what can be construed as a blind squirrel finding a nut on the ground or a broken watch being right twice a day.
Astro is pretty much like every other technical indicator, you just add it to the total grouping of other indicators to give you an overall probable decision factor.
Combine VIX, TLT, SPY, Astro, Weekly MACD, daily MACD, Tape action, price patterns, Crash type reversal patterns, Marty Armstrong cycle model predictions, throw in a little sea salt and animal instinct and there is your future market prediction.
However if we throw in Advance decline and summation index stats right now it is still saying tremendous market strength.
As far as crashes happening directly off of highs, the only one I can think of was the may 2010 situation. But most others happen more in waterfall type action where there is a progression of weakness and each price bar becomes larger than the previous leading to the capitulation bar.
Edited by tradesurfer, 01 March 2014 - 10:12 PM.