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Black Swan Event Next Week?


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#11 tommyt

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 09:09 PM

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs,


I always see this mentioned.

But...

How many crashes have happened so far to derive this statistics?
What's the definition of crash?
As far as I understand the 1929, 1987 crashes happened off of highs.



Crash/big decline same thing, they normally dont happen at the high. The '87 crash did not happen off the high. There was a pullback , and a rally attempt before if started to go bigger. '29 I have to look, but wouldn't think so either. I just looked, the 29 crash did fall very hard right off of the high...will post chart.

'87

Edited by tommyt, 01 March 2014 - 09:11 PM.


#12 arbman

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 09:38 PM

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs,


I always see this mentioned.

But...

How many crashes have happened so far to derive this statistics?
What's the definition of crash?
As far as I understand the 1929, 1987 crashes happened off of highs.



Crash/big decline same thing, they normally dont happen at the high. The '87 crash did not happen off the high. There was a pullback , and a rally attempt before if started to go bigger. '29 I have to look, but wouldn't think so either. I just looked, the 29 crash did fall very hard right off of the high...will post chart.

'87


Do you realize how desperate these sound? Who cares if the market drops 30-40 points initially next week, then bounces 10-15 points before diving 100-150 points in the following week, or even rallies 20 points higher before diving? The key here is whether this is the top where the CBs will fall short of saving? Certainly possible. My reaction is to sell first and ask the questions later... I sold short anyway, but I sold because I didn't think the growth is leading up and the market has been one accident away from taking down the wall of liquidity the CBs are trying to build... We'll see, nothing is a done deal (up or down) though.

Edited by arbman, 01 March 2014 - 09:40 PM.


#13 tradesurfer

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 10:05 PM

If you don't mind me chiming in here....be careful with Pesavento....I am aware he's on TFNN on a weekly basis but he's been wrong many more times than he's been right...


Yes I agree his record has been less then stellar as he has been almost constantly trying to pick tops for years now...

However he does still deserve credit for very specifically calling the October cluster selloff in 2008 very precisely weeks before it happened and also the exact date of the low in March of 2009, both of which were Astro related calls.

I have to give him credit for the August 2010 Astro low call as well.

Yes, a good portion of his other calls are seemingly unforgivable. I guess everyone has to make their own judgement.

But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market.

I suppose the market action that shows up the next 2 weeks will more or less decide that.

First off, since when has Astro been reliable on any basis more than what can be construed as a blind squirrel finding a nut on the ground or a broken watch being right twice a day.


Astro is pretty much like every other technical indicator, you just add it to the total grouping of other indicators to give you an overall probable decision factor.

Combine VIX, TLT, SPY, Astro, Weekly MACD, daily MACD, Tape action, price patterns, Crash type reversal patterns, Marty Armstrong cycle model predictions, throw in a little sea salt and animal instinct and there is your future market prediction.

However if we throw in Advance decline and summation index stats right now it is still saying tremendous market strength.


As far as crashes happening directly off of highs, the only one I can think of was the may 2010 situation. But most others happen more in waterfall type action where there is a progression of weakness and each price bar becomes larger than the previous leading to the capitulation bar.

Edited by tradesurfer, 01 March 2014 - 10:12 PM.


#14 fib_1618

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 10:54 PM

I just looked, the 29 crash did fall very hard right off of the high...will post chart.

Not quite.

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#15 An Ant

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Posted 01 March 2014 - 11:23 PM

From both examples (29 and 87), it appears that so called "Crash" happened in 2nd (or 3/C in Elliott terms) wave. Regardless, both of them appear NOT to come off of oversold conditions which is what popular belief is.

#16 fib_1618

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 12:58 AM

From both examples (29 and 87), it appears that so called "Crash" happened in 2nd (or 3/C in Elliott terms) wave.
Regardless, both of them appear NOT to come off of oversold conditions which is what popular belief is.

Correct and correct....and this extends to every "crash" that has taken place since 1900.

There's another curious technical phenomenon we see before a "crash" and that's the interplay of prices between its 20, 50 and 200 day EMA's where the "conditional sickness" takes place once the 20 day crosses below the 50 day and then "metastasizes" once prices move down and through the 200 day EMA.

Fib

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"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#17 andiron

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 08:10 AM

if you want to use EMAs, why not use God's numbers...8,13,34 etc....

#18 Dex

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 09:27 AM

Thanks for taking the time in putting the post together.

Fib


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#19 Dex

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 09:37 AM

Every once in a while the Bradley turns seem to be somewhat close to an approximation of accuracy but, to constantly call for multi % point moves both up and down within days of one another on a regular basis is an exercise in futility.


In a way the way Bradley works it can never be wrong - the prediction only says that there will be a change - not if up or down, nor the size, big or small. And, it can occur + or - 1 or two days from the date given. When you plot them on in a month - almost every day is covered.
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#20 AChartist

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:05 AM

For the last time I will say it, unless I say it again, the physical evidence is it is about dollar going away, what does that leave for possession of value? Real estate, good luck, only for self-printers, deep pockets on the DC teet. Try property tax in a pinch? I put up the Core Curriculum on that. Gold, the johnny come lately americans hate it until it is way up there. Equity ? Sure maybe selective, most likely lightweight portable technology companies best that can take intellectual property off shore. Maybe international diversification is warranted. Heavy exporters will maybe survive later on cheaper dollar but under heavy political pressures. Everything in time and rotation.

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some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan