37 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

if you want to use EMAs, why not use God's numbers...8,13,34 etc....

Hmmm...I never knew that Fibonacci was a God...maybe to some, I guess.

But to your point, there is a marked difference of character and cadence between the creation of fuel (internals) and the output it provides to drive prices (externals), so it would make sense to use analytical tools and time periods that would best fit to measure these functions. For many, this is where the "science" part of technical analysis comes into play, and many will probably agree that the use of Fibonacci time periods tend to work their best magic in trying to measure fuel consumption as opposed to time periods that have a better association to economic fundamental and/or cyclical work of which prices represent.

Thanks for taking the time in putting the post together.

Do you believe in astrology?

Although there is no mistake that cosmic forces play a large part in who we all are as life (human or otherwise) on this planet (gravitational and geothermal physics and such), my experience with the use of astrology, as it strictly pertains to market analysis, is really best left up to the eye of the beholder very much like any other analysis....if you allow your bias get in the way of your analytical prowess, it does become no more than an exercise in futility.

That said, I think we all do appreciate the time and effort Brad took in putting the post together whether we find it beneficial or not.

Fib

[CLK]

For the last time I will say it, unless I say it again,

the physical evidence is it is about dollar going away,

what does that leave for possession of value?


Real estate, good luck, only for self-printers, deep pockets on the DC teet.
Try property tax in a pinch? I put up the Core Curriculum on that.

Gold, the johnny come lately americans hate it until it is way up there.

Equity ?

Sure maybe selective, most likely lightweight portable technology companies best that
can take intellectual property off shore. Maybe international diversification is warranted.
Heavy exporters will maybe survive later on cheaper dollar but under heavy political pressures.
Everything in time and rotation.

The dollar has been going up ever since they started QE, so there is no dilution effect even in the face of printing. Only the last qtr it started down with higher
gold because of taper. Gold is in a long term bear market, might as well get used to it, instead of buying and waiting for a 50% devaluation. The dollar has been
basing for 5 years, I see no reason it is going to 50, I do not think they would allow it as inflation would be out of control. Real estate....disagree, this is the bottom, may be some back and fill, but even if property taxes doubled you cannot beat the returns on buying foreclosed property.

[Kimston]

If you don't mind me chiming in here....be careful with Pesavento....I am aware he's on TFNN on a weekly basis but he's been wrong many more times than he's been right...

Yes I agree his record has been less then stellar as he has been almost constantly trying to pick tops for years now...

However he does still deserve credit for very specifically calling the October cluster selloff in 2008 very precisely weeks before it happened and also the exact date of the low in March of 2009, both of which were Astro related calls.

I have to give him credit for the August 2010 Astro low call as well.

Yes, a good portion of his other calls are seemingly unforgivable. I guess everyone has to make their own judgement.

But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market.

I suppose the market action that shows up the next 2 weeks will more or less decide that.

First off, since when has Astro been reliable on any basis more than what can be construed as a blind squirrel finding a nut on the ground or a broken watch being right twice a day.

Astro is pretty much like every other technical indicator, you just add it to the total grouping of other indicators to give you an overall probable decision factor.

Combine VIX, TLT, SPY, Astro, Weekly MACD, daily MACD, Tape action, price patterns, Crash type reversal patterns, Marty Armstrong cycle model predictions, throw in a little sea salt and animal instinct and there is your future market prediction.

However if we throw in Advance decline and summation index stats right now it is still saying tremendous market strength.


As far as crashes happening directly off of highs, the only one I can think of was the may 2010 situation. But most others happen more in waterfall type action where there is a progression of weakness and each price bar becomes larger than the previous leading to the capitulation bar.

"But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market."

Here's my wild guess for a possible scenario. Stocks peak somewhere between 3/6 and 3/12 followed by a swift sell-off that bottoms around 3/27 (give or take a few trading days). Then it rallies back up to around 4/22 to set up more divergences before the cosmos flips the light switch to the off position (no later than 5/12). In any case, whichever way the market is trending into 4/21 - 4/22, which will mark the tightest alignment in recorded history of Mars, Jupiter, Uranus & Pluto in a perfect cardinal square pattern, I think one should be on the lookout for an important reversal at that time. This isn't a forecast, but sometimes very powerful alignments can cause things like major earthquakes as well. Hopefully not this time.

Kimston

[draggen33]

If you don't mind me chiming in here....be careful with Pesavento....I am aware he's on TFNN on a weekly basis but he's been wrong many more times than he's been right...

Yes I agree his record has been less then stellar as he has been almost constantly trying to pick tops for years now...

However he does still deserve credit for very specifically calling the October cluster selloff in 2008 very precisely weeks before it happened and also the exact date of the low in March of 2009, both of which were Astro related calls.

I have to give him credit for the August 2010 Astro low call as well.

Yes, a good portion of his other calls are seemingly unforgivable. I guess everyone has to make their own judgement.

But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market.

I suppose the market action that shows up the next 2 weeks will more or less decide that.

First off, since when has Astro been reliable on any basis more than what can be construed as a blind squirrel finding a nut on the ground or a broken watch being right twice a day.

Astro is pretty much like every other technical indicator, you just add it to the total grouping of other indicators to give you an overall probable decision factor.

Combine VIX, TLT, SPY, Astro, Weekly MACD, daily MACD, Tape action, price patterns, Crash type reversal patterns, Marty Armstrong cycle model predictions, throw in a little sea salt and animal instinct and there is your future market prediction.

However if we throw in Advance decline and summation index stats right now it is still saying tremendous market strength.


As far as crashes happening directly off of highs, the only one I can think of was the may 2010 situation. But most others happen more in waterfall type action where there is a progression of weakness and each price bar becomes larger than the previous leading to the capitulation bar.

"But if we just assume or agree that the April 21st date is going to be a very large magnet date( Keep in mind that is only 35 total trading days from now) , it seems to make more sense that it would be a significant low in the market instead of a future high after another 6 weeks up in the market."

Here's my wild guess for a possible scenario. Stocks peak somewhere between 3/6 and 3/12 followed by a swift sell-off that bottoms around 3/27 (give or take a few trading days). Then it rallies back up to around 4/22 to set up more divergences before the cosmos flips the light switch to the off position (no later than 5/12). In any case, whichever way the market is trending into 4/21 - 4/22, which will mark the tightest alignment in recorded history of Mars, Jupiter, Uranus & Pluto in a perfect cardinal square pattern, I think one should be on the lookout for an important reversal at that time. This isn't a forecast, but sometimes very powerful alignments can cause things like major earthquakes as well. Hopefully not this time.

Kimston

Thxs kimston and blustar always enjoy reading your thoughts!!

[andr99]

...well if I am allowed to express my opinion I don' t count much on astrology and on e-waves when trading. There are many forces in the universe (although scientists all over the world are trying to demonstrate that it's possible to re-unificate them all under just one). Some are called mass-forces because they are proportinal to mass and are applied to the center of mass of bodies (also known as baricenter). Gravity is one. Then there are the electro-magnetic forces due to the interaction between electric charges both that they are in relative motion or not. Ask Coulomb and Lorentz, they will give you a description for both cases. Then there are the so called seeming forces such as the centrifugal force and the force of Coriolis due to the fact that the equations of the motion are expressed inside a reference system which is not inertial. Then there's the force that attracts myself towards girls provided with big rounded bo...eautiful eyes, but the description of it is off topics. Well, no one of these forces have ever helped me while trading, nor astrology or e-waves ever did. Patterns did help me, trend lines and resistances also did.......and supports too. Together with risk managing associated to the finding-out of strong resistances where the break up is almost impossible or the finding-out of strong supports where the break down has almost zero probabilities. Besides inter-correlations between different indexes. My half penny.... BTW......that some far planets' alignment may ever cause earthquakes....well this destroys science since Galileo afterwards

Edited by andr99, 02 March 2014 - 02:18 PM.

[AChartist]

CLK, I'm not saying I know how it will happen, dollar may not be measured against other currencies, for example remember when swiss doubled and they printed swiss down to par, I dont think about currency comparisons. I think about emerging market inflation, costs of consumer debt, cost of new cars and food, some things are visible and other may not be until after the fact. I think, basal I naming the treasury as reserve currency is the clue how they do it, a similar internal version is behind MyRA treasury, I think. With this treasury becoming the collateral base of a new internal domestic dollar, and more, this account also becoming the Zombie that they dump social debt into, an internal basal I. But this currency comes in with an initial devaluation against frn and goes from there. Now what becomes of external treasuries and frn, not sure how that goes away but yuan is up to 15% of global trade volume from almost nothing a few years ago. This MyRA treasury zombie could emancipate frn from the social debt but it is also tapping the same dwindling tax base and doesnt look so well backed. The frn hegemony was just enforced by gunboat, that also appears to be going away.

[CLK]

CLK, I'm not saying I know how it will happen, dollar may not be measured against other currencies,
for example remember when swiss doubled and they printed swiss down to par, I dont think about
currency comparisons.

I think about emerging market inflation, costs of consumer debt, cost of new cars and food, some things are visible
and other may not be until after the fact.

I think, basal I naming the treasury as reserve currency is the clue how they do it, a similar internal version is behind MyRA treasury, I think.
With this treasury becoming the collateral base of a new internal domestic dollar, and more, this account also becoming the Zombie that
they dump social debt into, an internal basal I. But this currency comes in with an initial devaluation against frn and goes from there.

Now what becomes of external treasuries and frn, not sure how that goes away but yuan is up to 15% of global trade volume from
almost nothing a few years ago. This MyRA treasury zombie could emancipate frn from the social debt but it is also tapping the same dwindling
tax base and doesnt look so well backed. The frn hegemony was just enforced by gunboat, that also appears to be going away.

Anything is possible, I will stay informed on global events. In the meantime all I can do is trade the best I can. Buying some physical gold
probably is good just as a hedge.

[AChartist]

Besides accumulating metals for two years, not the paper kind, the next idea I have is to buy a goodly about of UGA gasoline, I calculate to keep my good car several few years I would need $4000 in UGA, may start with $2500 plus margin. This will be alot cheaper than buying a hybrid or plug in hybrid, which I am against contracting with "them" on a new car finance and contract full insurance mandate. I do think a plug in hybrid is essential to sovereignty before the subprime auto bubble catches up with consumer "help" in tuition, housing, and medical hyperinflation. I do want to purchase a plug in hybrid with the year but let this crisis evolve or stabilize and see. And not real happy with the choices and prices now, some new choices may be coming out.

[NAV]

Russia has just announced its intentions this morning to invade the Crimea (which is part of the Ukraine). As I said earlier on this week, watch Mar 1 as Libra goes retrograde (war-like). Tomorrow Saturn goes retro in Scorpio.The negative energy that came upon the market last Friday where the SPX came down 20 points off the top, was what I was talking about last week. I miscalculated the Feb 27 Bisector low to Feb 28, but had said earlier that Thur to Friday should be up into the new moon and that Feb 27 was the bisector low. I did not expect higher high over Monday's top near 1858, as the formation became "once again" irregular.

This market is highly irregular and we have gone though a Mercury retro period (ending Feb 28), where Merriman said: expect the unexpected, trends lines will be broken, it will go further than expected and things will get exaggerated. Well, he was right. Nothing made sense, the volume did not confirm, but the A/D line went to a new high. The cycles instead of running 4/8/16, went mainly 5/10/20 (and are still doing it).

The Delta Volume was so weak on this rise that it is a house of cards waiting to crash. Either we hold 1773 on Mar 6 or crash through to 1668. The spinning top was followed last time by a small doji star. We'll see on Monday how things play out, but things are heating up fast between Putin and Obama even as I write this.

The SKEW Index just hit 135, so fear is out there. George Soros recently upped his hedged bet for a down side move in the markets and I'm sure he is in the know as to what is really going on.

Bottom line: Either SPX 1773 or 1668 by Thursday next week. If 1668, then 1945 by Mar 27, otherwise there won't be enough pull back to launch to the top of the major rising wedge by then.

Charts

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs, pullbacks to support and uptrend lines occur. After uptrend lines and support areas are violated at numerous spots, the mkt becomes vulnerable and more susceptible to bigger declines. In fairness Blu, as good as I gave you credit for the spot on call before the last pullback, its been ice cold since.

Making money in the markets requires consistency. Trading is not about getting once in a blu moon call right.

[andiron]

Russia has just announced its intentions this morning to invade the Crimea (which is part of the Ukraine). As I said earlier on this week, watch Mar 1 as Libra goes retrograde (war-like). Tomorrow Saturn goes retro in Scorpio.The negative energy that came upon the market last Friday where the SPX came down 20 points off the top, was what I was talking about last week. I miscalculated the Feb 27 Bisector low to Feb 28, but had said earlier that Thur to Friday should be up into the new moon and that Feb 27 was the bisector low. I did not expect higher high over Monday's top near 1858, as the formation became "once again" irregular.

This market is highly irregular and we have gone though a Mercury retro period (ending Feb 28), where Merriman said: expect the unexpected, trends lines will be broken, it will go further than expected and things will get exaggerated. Well, he was right. Nothing made sense, the volume did not confirm, but the A/D line went to a new high. The cycles instead of running 4/8/16, went mainly 5/10/20 (and are still doing it).

The Delta Volume was so weak on this rise that it is a house of cards waiting to crash. Either we hold 1773 on Mar 6 or crash through to 1668. The spinning top was followed last time by a small doji star. We'll see on Monday how things play out, but things are heating up fast between Putin and Obama even as I write this.

The SKEW Index just hit 135, so fear is out there. George Soros recently upped his hedged bet for a down side move in the markets and I'm sure he is in the know as to what is really going on.

Bottom line: Either SPX 1773 or 1668 by Thursday next week. If 1668, then 1945 by Mar 27, otherwise there won't be enough pull back to launch to the top of the major rising wedge by then.

Charts

99% of the time, crashes dont happen off of highs, pullbacks to support and uptrend lines occur. After uptrend lines and support areas are violated at numerous spots, the mkt becomes vulnerable and more susceptible to bigger declines. In fairness Blu, as good as I gave you credit for the spot on call before the last pullback, its been ice cold since.

Making money in the markets requires consistency. Trading is not about getting once in a blu moon call right.

yup...while selective memory works to the advantage of so called market callers..if you do basic arithmatic on their calls, you would be shocked at all the losses you have incurred...

making calls is easy..anyone can do it and be correct a few times..

Edited by andiron, 03 March 2014 - 07:32 AM.