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High Probability for Big Down Friday


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#21 TTrader47

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:02 PM

So do you trade? Strategies?

Primarily options and volatility. Not consistent enough to post strategies. More to come after semester ends. The last 2-3 weeks cost my summer vacation, so I'm a bit humbled.


And you trade based off of? Direction of the wind?

#22 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:05 PM

A blind squirrel is more correct than what I've seen here and I've been watching for nearly 2 years.

There is a handful of posters here that are worth watching, the rest are a fade(Including me). The thing is.... that information is very useful ;)

Yeah, the ideas and tools are pretty useful as quite a few posters and debates. Macros aren't discussed nearly as enough, and don't get me started about blind SPX forecasts without logic. I do like the thought processes of quite a few poster who would share it, and will give more credit if people who are wrong enough explain why they were and their thinking behind the bold predictions. That would validation TA more than just the 10 percent times the massive back slapping occurs from a good call.

#23 TTrader47

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:08 PM

Macros aren't discussed nearly as enough, and don't get me started about blind SPX forecasts without logic.


As in economic data releases? I personally believe the market tops and bottom's on the "great" and "horrible" economic news. Most of it is just noise.

#24 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:10 PM

So do you trade? Strategies?

Primarily options and volatility. Not consistent enough to post strategies. More to come after semester ends. The last 2-3 weeks cost my summer vacation, so I'm a bit humbled.


And you trade based off of? Direction of the wind?

News, weight, sentiment, and this board's projections as confirmation of what I may be thinking. I filter a lot of my ideas here, if I'm going to be completely honest. So when I see a massive SELL signal and overbought, top heavy market, I go for it based on projections playing conservatively. So imagine dropping a just OTM put or call or ATM when 4 posters are screaming about a 50 POINT SPX occurring in/during 2 days, and the market shoots in the other direction. Must've been the POMO or stealth POMO. LMAO. No offense guys. I like a lot of you.

#25 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:14 PM

Macros aren't discussed nearly as enough, and don't get me started about blind SPX forecasts without logic.


As in economic data releases? I personally believe the market tops and bottom's on the "great" and "horrible" economic news. Most of it is just noise.

Yeah, this is a bulletproof market full stop. My newfound belief is that the market will only move opposite of sentiment to make the fewest amount of participants any cash. It is pinned and will only make a big move in either direction once people give up on both sides trying to play for it. Default mini-moves are upwards thanks to Fed intervention.

#26 MikeyG

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:23 PM

So do you trade? Strategies?

Primarily options and volatility. Not consistent enough to post strategies. More to come after semester ends. The last 2-3 weeks cost my summer vacation, so I'm a bit humbled.



A true newbie...

I think my ego was probably a lot like yours when I first start trading futes in college...

The market will fix that...

mdgcapital@protonmail.com  

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"One soul is worth more than the whole world." 


#27 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:23 PM

So do you trade? Strategies?

Primarily options and volatility. Not consistent enough to post strategies. More to come after semester ends. The last 2-3 weeks cost my summer vacation, so I'm a bit humbled.


And you trade based off of? Direction of the wind?

Latest eyeball test is how the VIX etf's are not moving while VIX is backwards. Although the 2 trade spot futures, UVXY seems for some reason have built in support. It would usually give up the ghost by now if VIX has. That's an overbought market. A big drop is coming, but how to you play it? I've done too many short term lotto tickets with this obvious top.

#28 TTrader47

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:27 PM

Latest eyeball test is how the VIX etf's are not moving while VIX is backwards. Although the 2 trade spot futures, UVXY seems for some reason have built in support. It would usually give up the ghost by now if VIX has. That's an overbought market. A big drop is coming, but how to you play it? I've done too many short term lotto tickets with this obvious top.


UVXY is not related to the spot VIX.

#29 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:35 PM

Latest eyeball test is how the VIX etf's are not moving while VIX is backwards. Although the 2 trade spot futures, UVXY seems for some reason have built in support. It would usually give up the ghost by now if VIX has. That's an overbought market. A big drop is coming, but how to you play it? I've done too many short term lotto tickets with this obvious top.


UVXY is not related to the spot VIX.

I know that, but it still does move nearly 2X with it. I know it's based off the futures of both months, but it can be used sometimes as a tell of top or bottom. I just think it's screaming temporary top right now.

#30 TTrader47

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:39 PM

I know that, but it still does move nearly 2X with it. I know it's based off the futures of both months, but it can be used sometimes as a tell of top or bottom. I just think it's screaming temporary top right now.


The $VIX may be signaling a top, at atleast a temporarily pullback. That currently is my call. But it is not my call just for the fact that the VIX is low. UVXY spends an incredible amount of time at 52 week lows, so by nature, always seems like a top. Touch cookie if you are going to try and trade it. Short it for decent return on rising markets, but risk horrific draw downs if caught on the wrong side. Just look at TVIX during summer/fall '11.