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Gold is ready for a big persistent move


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#1 tradesurfer

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Posted 28 October 2003 - 08:58 PM

I suggest everyone take a look at the copper price chart to get an idea of what gold will soon do. Copper was rising in a rising wedge type pattern with RSI forming a triangle. Then, instead of breaking down out of the rising wedge, copper blasted higher in persistent fashion.

The first chart below is the copper chart:

Posted Image


Now for comparison take a look at the price of gold chart. Note how we have the same setup. The same compression of RSI into triangle formation. I have a high confidence now that the price of gold will blast upward just like copper did. It should be a nice persistent move. It will bring the RSI up into 75 to 80 range or so and will probably bounce around up at those overbought levels for a bit.. that is the way of a bull market...

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#2 blustar

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Posted 28 October 2003 - 09:01 PM

I doubt your scenario will play out. blustar

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#3 tradesurfer

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Posted 28 October 2003 - 09:50 PM

One of the other reasons why I believe my scenario will play out comes from looking at the gold run in the early 70's. I just spent a lot of time staring at that major first leg up in close detail zooming in on the various rallies and pullbacks. The thing that struck me is about that run is how persistent the move was. I mean after the 2nd year and a half or so, we saw fast vertical moves only to pull back very sharply but at a much much higher overbought level. Looking at that price action of the past tells me the same will happen here. Personality wise, I can see how back then there was probably a constant fear about getting in because 'it was too high'. But amazingly it keep going higher and pullback sharply .. but only from much higher levels. The move had a parabolic character then. And since I believe the gold market personality stays the same through the years, we are in the cusp of the same parabolic move. TS

#4 blustar

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Posted 28 October 2003 - 10:35 PM

Dreamland. B)

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#5 goldsmith

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 04:22 AM

Oct. 28 - Gold $382.80 - Copper $0.9015/lb - Platinum 749.00 -
Silver $5.07

The Gold Stalker to Strike Again This Coming Week
Last Friday’s Gold bashing by JP Morgan Chase in
the last half hour was a warning by The Gold Cartel
to the longs they were going to have their hands
full if they stayed that way.
Gold has virtually dropped $10 off its late Friday
high in two sessions since the cabal launched
their "playful jest".

Great Lakes was a huge seller this morning.

Goldman Sachs was actually a small buyer.

The cabal won another battle, but if my latest
information is right, they will be on the
defensive shortly.

Got a call today from my Stalker source.

He tells me The Stalker ("Gold buying group"
whose orders are emanating out of New Zealand
and Australia) bought 1/3 of its $1.6 billion
buy order and backed off on the rest as the
Gold price took off. However, we now hear that
as Gold has dropped back, they will be buying
again SOON and expect the remainder of the HUGE
order to be filled within a week to ten days.

Hard for me to see Gold dropping too much from
these levels with this sort of buying to support
the price.

The cash market is already firm.

Gold has come all the way back to fill its
breakaway gap.

One that should be no more by tomorrow.

Basis the DEC contract, it is $382.50.

The floor wouldn’t mind seeing it filled, but
they don’t want Gold to take out $382 basis DEC.

Not much room for error there.

The Gold open interest fell slightly to 264,332
contracts, down 606.

Silver was weak all day with Irish the big seller.

The ring was also a seller. Just when it looks like
it is going to take off, silver always seems to be
trashed.

Not the usual suspects today either.

Morgan Stanley was actually an early buyer and got
stuffed on the session.

While the CRB action was neither here nor there,
JAN soybeans rose 25 cents to close in contract
high ground at $7.88.

If there any serious crop shortfalls in South
America on in the SU this coming crop year,
we will surely have beans in the teens.

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, October 28, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.66, PM $$6.31,
with world gold at $385.60 and $386.35.
Ample for legal imports.
Diwali is still in progress: not all cities were open;
all but one reported prices which would permit legal imports.
For this reason one doubts that the option-encouraged
sell-off initiated when NY opened this morning will
get very far.
The rupee closed at an import-facilitating 39 month
high today.

Reuters today carries a story headlined
"Asia Gold –Bars at discount, investors cut positions" which turns on Hong Kong bars having slipped to a 10c discount from a 30c premium last week.
This of course reflects gold’s excursion over $390
at the end of last week:
significantly bars in Singapore are said to remain
at a premium:

Singapore actually does trade with India:

"Dealers said steady demand from India supported
the market even though rising prices had caused
frustration in the world’s largest consumer…"

Japan remains indifferent as the yen edged up
towards a multi-month high, not a situation
conducive to an appetite for yen gold futures.

Volume was virtually static, equivalent to 23,
805 Comex lots (up 4.4% from yesterday), open
interest dropped a rather steep 3,476 Comex
equivalent;
the active contract closed down 8 yen and world
gold went out $1.85 below the NY close.
Once again, Mitsubishi reports "good" offerings
of physical by regional dealers for London delivery,
which is also noted by UBS.
As noted yesterday, it looks as if the upper $380s
attracts the attention of the familiar, resolute,
seller.
(NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 40,000 lots).

Today’s option expiry, and no doubt gold’s loss
of momentum, has attracted the attention of more
mundane predator funds.
Reuters quotes Refco’s chief dealer saying that:

"one fund sold 3,000 to 4,000 contracts at the open, pushing the contract down to $384, before short
covering kicked in.
"Around that level we saw very good trade support…’."

In all this short term drama, AIG’s Bernard Connolly
is rather isolated in pointing out that Germany
appears to have decided to join the French in
decisively wrecking the "Stability Pact" which
ushered in the Euro (see Appendix below).
This could well be the most gold friendly news
of all.

JB
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Fed left US interest rates unchanged.
You could scripted what they were going to say before
their announcement and predictable it was.
Business is picking up, but because inflation isn’t
picking up, they will leave short rates alone for the foreseeable future.
Their comment is all about spin for Wall Street.
Maybe they don’t see inflation, but I sure do.

The DOW (9748, up 140) and the DOG (1932, up 49)
went ballistic.

The dollar closed a bit higher at 92.10, up .25.
The euro was weak, 116.43, down .83, but the dollar
closed slightly lower against most other major
currencies.

GOLD Stocks will be the way to riches.
"hold for the long-term,"
"and you’ll be rich."

Gold will be seen as the answer
to economic freedom...

GOLD Stocks will be the way to riches.
"hold for the long-term,"
"and the pension’ll be rich."

Gold will be seen as the answer
to economic freedom...

The LT copper has just started a Long Term Bull Trend for
many future years for a long hike UP to New Highs.

Copper High Grade (HG, Comex) Cu Bull Stronger...

http://futures.tradi...com/chart/CP/A3

Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)...

http://quotes.ino.co...=15&a=50&v=dmax

...lower highs and lower lows...going down hill...

Got Northgate Gold Shares?

THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime
is still in play.

For investors looking to jump on board,
you have a gift.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT! and WE ARE GOING TO WIN IT!

The Gold chart is very constructive:

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/GDM.GIF

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/GDW.GIF

Gold stocks will shine after bullion prices hit
a seven-year-high in London...

A GOLD SHARE BUYING PANIC IS COMING...

There is no way the little Gold share market will be
able to handle this buying without the shares SOARING,

Copper High Grade (HG, Comex)
Weekly Price Chart...
Copper following Mother Gold higher, Cu...

http://futures.tradi....com/chart/CP/W

http://www.tfc-chart...charts/CPA3.GIF

***To The Moon Alice, To The Moon!***

NXG & NGX:TSE Undervalued / Oversold

The Gold shares are only getting to the launch pad...

http://www.house.gov...03/pr073103.htm

Lift off and rocket ride still to come...

http://cbs.marketwat...956&siteid=mktw

Mineable Resource *** Kemess North *** Pre-feasibility Study

^*^Increases^*^ to 4 Million Ounces...

(4 mil. x 380/oz = $1,520,000,000.00 Au value
in the Gold Treasure Chest Safety

Note. Prices are 24 percent higher than a year ago...

Prices have climbed 17 percent this year, on
strengthening demand in China;
they buy everthing they can get
their hands on...
China the world's biggest copper user,
and accelerating U.S. & Can. economic growth
in the mining industry!

NGX at...
http://www.ivarkreuger.com
http://www.northgateexploration.ca

The US$ fiat falling off the cliff...
U.S. Dollar Index (CEC)
Weekly fiat $$ Price Chart...

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/USW.GIF

...the fiat US$ & Can$ will be only be
worth the paper its printed on?..

http://www.house.gov/paul/
Imo. TIA!

http://futures.tradi...com/chart/CP/A3

Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)...

http://quotes.ino.co...=15&a=50&v=dmax

...lower highs and lower lows...going down hill...

Got Northgate Gold Shares?

THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime
is still in play.

For investors looking to jump on board,
you have a gift.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT! and WE ARE GOING TO WIN IT!

The Gold chart is very constructive:

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/GDM.GIF

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/GDW.GIF

Gold stocks will shine after bullion prices hit
a seven-year-high in London...

A GOLD SHARE BUYING PANIC IS COMING...

There is no way the little Gold share market will be
able to handle this buying without the shares SOARING,

Copper High Grade (HG, Comex)
Weekly Price Chart...
Copper following Mother Gold higher, Cu...

http://futures.tradi....com/chart/CP/W

http://www.tfc-chart...charts/CPA3.GIF

***To The Moon Alice, To The Moon!***

NXG & NGX:TSE Undervalued / Oversold

The Gold shares are only getting to the launch pad...

http://www.house.gov...03/pr073103.htm

Lift off and rocket ride still to come...

http://cbs.marketwat...956&siteid=mktw

Mineable Resource *** Kemess North *** Pre-feasibility Study

^*^Increases^*^ to 4 Million Ounces...

(4 mil. x 380/oz = $1,520,000,000.00 Au value
in the Gold Treasure Chest Safety

Note. Prices are 24 percent higher than a year ago...

Prices have climbed 17 percent this year, on
strengthening demand in China;
they buy everthing they can get
their hands on...
China the world's biggest copper user,
and accelerating U.S. & Can. economic growth
in the mining industry!

NGX at...
http://www.ivarkreuger.com
http://www.northgateexploration.ca

The US$ fiat falling off the cliff...
U.S. Dollar Index (CEC)
Weekly fiat $$ Price Chart...

http://www.tfc-chart.../charts/USW.GIF

...the fiat US$ & Can$ will be only be
worth the paper its printed on?..

http://www.house.gov/paul/
Imo. TIA!






[B]

#6 uncleharley

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 04:57 AM

:unsure: Why do you think gold should track copper rather than oil or wheat or pork bellies?????

#7 goldsmith

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 05:36 AM

tradesurfer, you just spent a lot of time staring at that major first leg up in close detail zooming in on the various rallies and pullbacks... you are right on...the history often repeat itself... in the past silver used to be the frontrunner to Gold and now its platinum the Cu is the reflexion... all base metals will follow/////the Mother GOLD Higher. Imo.TIA. :D

#8 tradesurfer

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 10:28 AM

uncle harley, I am not saying gold should track copper. but since copper is a metal and a commodity and many other commodities are heating up into breakouts now.. one can make the reasonable conclusion that gold will follow.. right now as I write gold is already at 387 !! I can sense the BIG MOVE is coming! I can taste it!! get ready!!!!!!!!!! Here she gooooooooooooooooooooooeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssss....!

#9 tradesurfer

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 11:31 AM

The following might be a catalyst for gold to move higher Thursday: U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, who has called repeatedly for China to move to a market-based exchange rate system, is to testify on Thursday before Congress on whether China and other countries manipulate their currencies to gain an edge in trade.

#10 fib_1618

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Posted 29 October 2003 - 01:15 PM

Personally...

I have always found that copper is a good indicator of future economic activity - while gold is a good indicator of present overall liquidity that may be in the finanical system - so I utilize these two products in this manner.

As far as silver is concerned, it will generally lag the price of gold - while platinum leads the price of gold. Part of this is economical - but a lot of this is just simple supply and demand of these particular commodities.

The other reason why silver tends to be the caboose in all of this is that it is what the public can afford - aka - the poor man's gold.

Again - trading the patterns that are current - with a little bit of knowledge of the true dynamics in which these markets do trade - really does taking a position one way or the other much easier than to try to second guess a given situation.

Fib

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