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fib_1618 SAYS LOTS LIQUIDITY THIS YEAR?


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#21 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 05:32 PM

Trading markets is like going out to sea, every day is different, the tides, the current, the weather, it's all different.

I'll use your analogy.

The NYAD line measures the depth of the liquidity pool....sort of like sailing on San Francisco Bay when the tide is in and the tide is out.

The NYUD line (or any volume cumulative line) measures whether the boat on this same pool is able to move forward, stalls, or gets hung up on what's underneath the surface of the pool if this same pool is drained.

Nothing blasphemous about it...breadth leads price. Volume is then needed to move price in the direction in which this same breadth dynamic is moving.

They must, underneath it all, work together to gain a specific goal in relation to price itself.

Fib



If this tool doesn't end up with a specific PRICE OUTPUT, as in a TARGET.

It is useless.
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#22 nimblebear

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 05:41 PM

I knew this was a thread I didn't dare dive into. Sheesh. :rolleyes: Next time I'll follow my hunch and not do so.
OTIS.

#23 fib_1618

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 05:55 PM

If this tool doesn't end up with a specific PRICE OUTPUT, as in a TARGET.

It is useless.

The data provided by the advance/decline is NOT an analytical tool...it provides a measurement of how much money there is for investment at any given time.

It is then up to volume to do something with this same money measurement...whether to move it in or out of the market at any given time.

As far as price targets are concerned, you then use basic supply and demand charting techniques to provide this information (symmetrical triangles, basing patterns, wedges, etc, etc.)

All of other analytical tools use the information provided by the A/D line in one way or the other to help reinforce the charting techniques.

Couldn't it also mean that it is Illiquid - there are few sellers (less stocks available for sale) therefore the few that want to buy have to pay more to find a seller - A-D goes up - not that there is a great deal of money out there chasing stocks?

Good question.

This is where using a tool like the McClellan Oscillator, and/or it's sister tool, the McClellan Summation Index is needed to identify these kinds of imbalances in this same daily liquidity dynamic.

For example...take the MCSUM chart I posted earlier today and shown below. Where you see the larger separation of postings, this is where one market opinion is driving price over the other and pushing this supply to demand factor in favor of the direction noted on the chart. If the postings are congested, this is where battles go on between the two sides, and prices show sideways movements because of this.

Again...if we use a cumulative total of advancers over decliners, the TREND of money is known. The MCO then measures the speed of this trend while the MCSUM measures its trend strength.

Fib

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#24 Dex

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 06:56 PM

Couldn't it also mean that it is Illiquid - there are few sellers (less stocks available for sale) therefore the few that want to buy have to pay more to find a seller - A-D goes up - not that there is a great deal of money out there chasing stocks?

Good question.

This is where using a tool like the McClellan Oscillator, and/or it's sister tool, the McClellan Summation Index is needed to identify these kinds of imbalances in this same daily liquidity dynamic.

For example...take the MCSUM chart I posted earlier today and shown below. Where you see the larger separation of postings, this is where one market opinion is driving price over the other and pushing this supply to demand factor in favor of the direction noted on the chart. If the postings are congested, this is where battles go on between the two sides, and prices show sideways movements because of this.

Again...if we use a cumulative total of advancers over decliners, the TREND of money is known. The MCO then measures the speed of this trend while the MCSUM measures its trend strength.

Fib



Then the A-D does not measure liquidity.
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#25 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:18 PM

As far as price targets are concerned, you then use basic supply and demand charting techniques to provide this information (symmetrical triangles, basing patterns, wedges, etc, etc.)

All of other analytical tools use the information provided by the A/D line in one way or the other to help reinforce the charting techniques.


So the answer is, it doesn't give you any useful price targeting information.

Useless.

While knowing the performance of your airplane's engines and systems is good info.

It does not guide you to your destination.

The best reinforcement comes from consistent results in price targeting.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#26 fib_1618

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:43 PM

The best reinforcement comes from consistent results in price targeting.

Not if you don't know which way you're going. :)

Thanks for the discussion.

Fib

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#27 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 07:53 PM

The best reinforcement comes from consistent results in price targeting.

Not if you don't know which way you're going. :)

Thanks for the discussion.

Fib


Everything you need to know is locked up in price volume and time....

These indicators are just verification, after the fact.

Just one example:

Knowing there's an airpocket under SPX 1940 that would bounce off 1925... (today)

You never gonna get that out of an A/D analysis, that's all price behavior.

(Monday's Forecast)

The higher we go now without a retracement, the stronger the odds we will see one, and probably something that will look a little dramatic. You see we have a rotten foundation here for all this sky blazing, and that is the fact we only spent a few hours in the trading range just underneath 1940, from 1927-1940. We expect at some point we may see a "rapid decompression" as that foundation is rejected. Now that can be here, or it could come from a higher level, but if we see strong downside momentum, we'll be looking for support somewhere around the "platform of highs" from the daily chart around 1925

And did it happen that way? Yes it did...



Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#28 fib_1618

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:47 PM

Everything you need to know is locked up in price volume and time....

You never gonna get that out of an A/D analysis, that's all price behavior.

Think about this Tom...how would you explain how I was able to give price projections so precisely in the SOX, that were far above current levels at those times, while others didn't have any confirmations that those numbers could even be reached because their pivot points still hadn't been met to make such comparisons?

We all understand what we can comprehend...it doesn't mean it doesn't work if one doesn't see the parallel line that goes along with it.

Fib

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#29 claire

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:53 PM

Am I missing something? It seems that Fib's analysis doesn't exclude information about where support/resistance would be when movement is in that direction.

#30 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 June 2014 - 08:55 PM

Yes, it doesn't give you a PRICE TARGET. Worthless.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1