60 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

In fact, there has NEVER been a time in the history of man where liquidity levels are as high as they are right now on both a domestic and global basis.

For those who may still be interested in the longer term contextual view of things after this long winded discussion...here you go.

Fib

[SemiBizz]

Indicators fail. Models fail. Waves are unpredictable. Cycles fail. I have seen certain indicators/models fail for years. I have seen good traders sticking to failed models for years and not giving up on it. But the message of the price is always the same - irrespective of underlying cause or environment. It either goes up or down. The only thing that changes is the volatility. Keeps the model simple with one degree of freedom - PRICE ! All one needs to adjust is varying the position size with volatility.

But most don't have a clue about price following. It's often confused with buy and hold. There are many great TA approaches to price following worth researching - Pure price breakouts, Moving averages, Donchian channels, Keltner channels, Supertrend, Volatility breakouts based on ATR, Ichimoku cloud etc. All these methods recognize a turn when the price turns. No ifs and buts - gives traders a specific entry, stop and exits, which is what real money trading is all about. The rest is all noise.

But message board folks are always obsessed with making calls, gravitating towards methods which are price forecasting based (e-wave and cycles being most popular).

Like Semi said, to each his own. If it works for you and you are really making money, stick with it. I am just saying what works for me after researching/trading various TA methods. I have un-learnt about 90% of the TA, i have wasted my time on over the years.

TRUTH WELL SAID PRICE IS ALWAYS KING!!

mss

And for me, all the technicals in the World are useless unless they give you a PRICE Projection...

[fib_1618]

And for me, all the technicals in the World are useless unless they give you a PRICE Projection...

And the A/D data provides the key information that's necessary to do this better than anything else out there.

You just have to know how to do it like everything else in this business.

Fib

[colion]

So, Fib gives a good price target and Semi gives a good price target. Both say that they use a different technique. Conclusion - different techniques can produce the same results. This is seen over and over so what's new?

[colion]

And for me, all the technicals in the World are useless unless they give you a PRICE Projection...

A price projection is nice but I really prefer methodologies that provide both a price and time projection.

[NAV]

This thread was about liquidity. And as for liquidity, without any question, there's tons of it floating around. Way too much of it all around the world. I was in the SF bay area last few weeks. It seems like the bidding wars have started in the real estate again in the bay area. The most hated, beaten down sector is also red-hot now. The bidding wars are a first sign of froth. I love froth. I love bubbles. Milk it while it lasts. Who cares when it ends or where it ends ! Wasn't the world supposed to end in 2009 ?

Edited by NAV, 13 June 2014 - 08:26 AM.

[fib_1618]

So, Fib gives a good price target and Semi gives a good price target. Both say that they use a different technique. Conclusion - different techniques can produce the same results. This is seen over and over so what's new?

Not much...I guess it really comes down to who's doing the interpreting.

But what the A/D data gives you that nothing else does is that it provides likely turning points based on the idea that too much of a good thing, isn't.

With rare exception, every analytical tool out there has its basis in the difference between advances and declines.

It is, therefore, the backbone of technical analysis, for without this information, it would make these same tools absolutely useless to work with.

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 13 June 2014 - 08:25 AM.

[SemiBizz]

The way I see this... A/D is not a PRICE TOOL... it is a TREND INDICATOR... Good Price targeting helps you make money inside and outside of trends.. It is a TRADING methodology. Trend Indicators keep you IN the market, My objective is to mine cash OUT of the market.

[SemiBizz]

The primary output of all trading and investing is CASH... in the end. All profits locked in the market are only THEORETICAL. As long as my CASH balance continues to grow, the more the opportunity to LEVERAGE SHORT TERM TRADES to create MORE CASH. If my funds are LOCKED in held positions... My CASH IS IN JAIL ! I would rather have it available for HIGH ODDS TRADING OPPORTUNITIES... With a definite beginning and end based on Target fulfillment.

Edited by SemiBizz, 13 June 2014 - 08:28 AM.

[mss]

And for me, all the technicals in the World are useless unless they give you a PRICE Projection...

There is TRUTH in what you stated. I agree!!

Now read my statement: And for me all of your methods are useless!

But that does not bother me because I assume you make money your way and I know I make money my way. We both make mistakes. Fib, Don, and a thousand others make mistakes as well as making money using THEIR METHODS.

I thank you for sharing your method, but DO NOT belittle my method, or anyones, it not a gentlemanly thing to do.


There is only one who is perfect and HE does not post on this board.

Best to you,
mss