39 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

normally the RUT would look exhausted..after a 60 point loss in two and half weeks. .

...but with the MoMo indicator where it is,.. and the other indexes testing highs... with this yearly Low Vix i think

the RUT can continue down to 1134 easily..then maybe a good bounce before testing 1113 the weekly 50Ma.

the markets have certainly split and the majors televised indexes have yet to give into the bearish internals....for whatever reason.

meanwhile gold is trying to regain its recent support level as it peeks over the resistance line. that said i wouldnt be interested in taking a 60m buy signal on the XAU/NUGT yet.

i would need to see more strength since the recent pullback gave a daily sell signal .

RUT looking pretty exhausted here. Down about 6%, while Dow is making new highs and VIX is sub 11. Very weird.

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 July 2014 - 11:39 AM.

[SemiBizz]

1127-1130 by the close today would not be a surprise.. I think what we gonna see now.. Is this news... Sets up a Synaptic Decline. No matter what else happens, this event will keep popping into the collective consciousness of the market. Security Threat with no answers now. Is it gonna be safe to fly or not?

[TTrader47]

SPY reaching resistance here around 197.3. Looking for another pullback off this level.

[Mr Dev]

well that didnt take long at all ...

the VIX Sprang up to 12.85 at the HOD and has settled back down -4% to hold here at +12.% on the day at this time.

a 16-18% gain from the VIX price chart posted earlier ...would move the VIX into the 50% retracement area from the 35% talked about in the post earlier this morning..

but the real target is the blue band above to provide some resistance @ 13.24 or about +7.0% HIGHER

just thought id post up the this mornings VIX chart which is still on an oscillator buy signal from last week .

you can see the lower oscillator went on it first buy signal last week since early April which was short lived ..but also notice how much higher the VIX was then 17.

this time the VIX is no where near those levels ( actually -35.0 % lower) so this lower oscillator top kissing the zero line ...could bounce instead of crossing below the zero line which
if it does would become bullish again for the markets.

at this time with the MoMo indicator still inside the Extreme Bearish Zone...AND the VIX here is more bearish than bullish.

also addressing the MoMo and the recent market highs..this is something we saw earlier this year which is very uncharacteristic where the markets should be making a low
with the MoMo in this zone but is making a high.
i see this action as another divergence (which doesnt happen often with this indicator but now twice in the same year) ..that the markets are ready for another sell sell off.

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 July 2014 - 12:13 PM.

[TTrader47]

Good back test here. SPY still making every effort to take out ATH's... At least compared to the Rut.

[Mr Dev]

yes it is a good back test...and if youve followed me at all over the years you know i've played for resistance to work when price is trapped between to MAs like that. i call it the chop zone.... seeing any move into the upper Ma to provide a Smack Down /Gap Down ...back to the lower MA.

[SemiBizz]

So, just in case now... If We see an "event" You can write these two numbers down S1 1127 S2 1071 Because regardless of what else we do or think, when the panic hits the market gravitates to the high volume pivots that define HORIZONTAL SUPPORT... Why? Because it was somebody's entry, exit or stop... the EXTREME HIGH VOLUMES Like 12/20/13 - 1127.65 and, 09/20/13 - 1071.86

[SemiBizz]

Furthermore, there's a PATTERN OF HIGH VOLUME in time... 09/20 12/20 03/21 06/20 It is like CLOCKWORK... really...

[SemiBizz]

Which might mean whatever weakness is happening here, just might be a dress rehearsal for the 9/20 timeframe...

[Mr Dev]

based on my July 10th post where people were not seeing .... a crash warning ...with bearish charts.

id be surprised if my MoMo indicator can stay within the Extreme Bearish Zone ..for that long ...(9/20) but anythings possible.

based on the MoMo's position this week.. we should see something more quick and more violent than normal probably before the end of July as mentioned or the first week of Aug.

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 July 2014 - 01:39 PM.