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Weekend Forecast


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#1 TechMan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:18 PM

If U.S. government shutdown. Fed taper, Syria, Detroit bankruptcy, North Korea nuclear tests, Ukraine crisis, Iraq civil war, etc. have absolutely no impact on the market, there's no reason to believe a plan crash in Ukraine and conflict in Gaza Strip are some kinda market moving events. These are "curve fitting" stories drummed up by the media. By all means, believe whatever you want. To me, it's nothing more than a technical event.

In any case, we couldn't get the SPX to move 1% in either direction in 13 long weeks. And once it's made the move, it's given us two 1% days in a row. The second 1% move today has taken it back up to the top of the range while volatility continues to rise - the apple of my eye.

Again, based on my count, it's unsustainable above 1970s without going through a correction first. Now that OpEx week's over, I'd expect another trip back to the bottom of the range to start the new week.


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Edited by TechMan, 18 July 2014 - 05:24 PM.


#2 rjo

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:21 PM

If U.S. government shut down. Fed taper, Syria, Detroit bankruptcy, North Korea nuclear tests, Ukraine crisis, Iraq civil war, etc. have absolutely no impact on the market, there's no reason to believe a plan crash in Ukraine and conflict in Gaza Strip are some kinds of market moving events. These are "curve fitting" stories drummed up by the media. By all means, believe whatever you want. To me, it's nothing more than a technical event.

In any case, we couldn't get the SPX to move 1% in either direction in 13 long weeks. And once it's made the move, it's given us two 1% days in a row. The second 1% move today has taken it back up to the top of the range while volatility continues to rise - the apple of my eye.

Again, based on my count, it's unsustainable above 1970s without going through a correction first. Now that OpEx week's over, I'd expect another trip back to the bottom of the range to start the new week.


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Hi tm - what %move would you consider a correction? Btw what you thinking on the 10yr yield?

#3 TechMan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:38 PM

Hi rjo - 9% is the minimum for this one, but it has to go through 1900 first. 10-year closed right at my aforementioned support 24.85 today. After this bounce, it should resume lower. I'm looking at the re-test of 24.

#4 TechMan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 05:52 PM

And, speaking of Treasury yields, that 10-2 spread is unreal.


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#5 TechMan

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 06:09 PM

An overzealous mean reversion from yesterday's oversold to overbought today (black circles). At around 3:50pm, the NDX up to down volume ratio was 250:1.

Unreal.


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#6 arbman

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 10:50 PM

Techman, all wars, terrorist activities, conflicts and so on are supposed to be bullish events. The lows made on these days really represent some sort of panic lows, they test the market. This market still has plenty of bids underneath. There is absolutely no follow through in selling despite the depleted liquidity for 2 weeks that market has been trying to consolidate. It think if the sellers have anything left to trend this market lower, they'd better get their game together soon. Otherwise the finale of this rally since May will have lots of fireworks...

#7 bigbud

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 01:05 AM

spx is 65 days above 35MA. Record since 2009 was just above 70 days in April 2012. And there were 65 days in March 2011

Edited by bigbud, 19 July 2014 - 01:13 AM.


#8 bigbud

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 01:18 AM

At this overbought level (red) we should see some kind of correction... but it runs as long as it runs, until it breaks, and it hasnt turned down yet. Could still get more overbought. SPX may want to make a new ATH first, maybe some kind of false breakout or a real blow off. But this rally is getting on overtime.
When it breaks we should see a flush some % below 35MA

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#9 bigbud

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 01:59 AM

any of these three...

a-opex pump, and dump/breakdown next week
b-a flat top, butterfly top, needing the third and last push
c-completing a bullflag/range/triangle, more selling next week without breaking down, and rally into August

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Edited by bigbud, 19 July 2014 - 02:00 AM.


#10 TechMan

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 08:05 AM

any of these three...

a-opex pump, and dump/breakdown next week
b-a flat top, butterfly top, needing the third and last push
c-completing a bullflag/range/triangle, more selling next week without breaking down, and rally into August



Thanks, bigbud. I'll take "a". :=)