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Weekend Forecast


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#11 TechMan

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 08:14 AM

Techman, all wars, terrorist activities, conflicts and so on are supposed to be bullish events. The lows made on these days really represent some sort of panic lows, they test the market. This market still has plenty of bids underneath. There is absolutely no follow through in selling despite the depleted liquidity for 2 weeks that market has been trying to consolidate. It think if the sellers have anything left to trend this market lower, they'd better get their game together soon. Otherwise the finale of this rally since May will have lots of fireworks...


arbman, it's debatable whether wars are bullish events, not to mention (1) we've withdrawn from the world, (2) these on-going wars, conflicts, and terrorists activities that have been around forever have now become part of our lives rather than the stimuli.

I'm not sure what "panic lows" are, but there's indeed "plenty of bids underneath" even during Thursday's selloff. However, depending on your bias, highs made over the past two weeks could also be viewed as some sort of "panic highs", if there're such things. And, there's also plenty of "asks" when it gets to these highs with no follow-through in buying.

So, adapting the final two sentences of your remark, if buyers, rather than sellers, have anything left to trend this market higher, they'd better get their games together soon, otherwise...

It's always fascinating to see how words like bulls, bears, buyers, and sellers can be used interchangeably in so many comments posted on this forum.

#12 arbman

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 08:37 AM

Well, the moving averages in every time frame over 15 days are still moving up. The ones so far lacking the controlling power in the market have been the bears. So, if the bears can get next week the prices below SPX 1940-1950 support zone, it could be the beginning of something new. However, there is really not much achieved by the bears so far beyond a pull back. I have no bias, I am just telling as it is... The wars, conflicts, terrorist activities create debt, one way or another. So as long as the people don't disappear that debt will have to find its way into economies. Money is not destroyed there, merely transferred. Not the best way to create economic activity, but it does. The history has proven this over and over. This is also all I meant. The lows made during such events have a lot more serious effects on human emotions than just the panic highs, selling on news happens quicker and more damaging than buying orgies in all time frames. You know the saying: "Nothing travels faster than the speed of light, except for the bad news.". People tend to also remember the bad news longer term than the good news.

#13 TechMan

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:04 AM

arbman, I've made a conscious effort to avoid using words like bulls and bears for sensationalism. And, it's working very well for me. As a wise man here once said, we're all competing against the market, not against each other. So, I'm not going to get into the futile and nonsensical bulls/bears debate like I used to. The fact is that the market hasn't gone anywhere over the past two weeks, which means no one has "the controlling power". Like I said, it's "debatable" whether wars are bullish events. And, I'm not going to get into yet another futile debate like that either. You should look up stock market performances during war times. It's really "debatable", and that's just it. I do, however, agree with you that 1940-1950 is a critical range.

#14 arbman

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:12 AM

Techman, it is better to accept who is in control of the market and go with it. I don't think the sellers are in control. When I make a bull/bear debate, I really mean buyers vs sellers who are in control, it is just the slang, not a religious term for me as I am not perma-anything either. Within the above context for the past 2 weeks, the bears probably gave the best they got so far and it didn't break the support even with the news and Yellen bombing the small caps. So much bad news "tried" to come out last week that you know it was trying to actually take out the air a bit out of the bubble. BTW, this is a bubble, and it will also end with utmost euphoria and fireworks... You just have to say whether the bulls have gone overboard to collapse under their own weight, no selling effort by the bears will break this market until then... :)

#15 Harapa

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:25 AM

Problem for the Bulls is the channel resistance. A correction to ~1930 ( ~ 2.5%) on weekly close basis would be an healthy event.
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Edited by Harapa, 19 July 2014 - 09:26 AM.


#16 TechMan

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:40 AM

arbman, I don't believe in "news". And I don't believe in anything from the past like earnings, econ data, etc. Most of them, if not all of them, are "curve fitting" media stories. None of them have any permanent impact on the always forward looking market. I believe everything known, and perhaps unknown, to us has already been priced in.

As far as "bubble" goes, I personally don't know and don't care if the market's in a "bubble". A baseball ball costs only about $3, but a ball signed by Babe Ruth with a promise to hit a home run for an ailing 11-year-old boy was recently sold for a quarter of a million. Is the sports memorabilia in a "bubble"? Again, I don't know, and I donít care.

I present what I see happening in the market and back it up with my technical data. And I put my money where my mouth is by posting real time trades. I'm just a "nobody" poster on an Internet bulletin board. That's all I can do. The rest is up to the readers to decide.


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Problem for the Bulls is the channel resistance. A correction to ~1930 ( ~ 2.5%) on weekly close basis would be an healthy event.


Yes, market corrections are actually healthy events to let off some steam.

Edited by TechMan, 19 July 2014 - 09:47 AM.


#17 arbman

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:41 AM

Harapa, I think we will see a correction soon, but it will be probably more than 2.5% though... BTW, to illustrate, I am not sure the trading channels are all that effective, perhaps you may want to use log charts... Clearly this is a monster advance now...

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#18 arbman

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:49 AM

arbman, I don't believe in "news". And I don't believe in anything from the past like earnings, econ data, etc. Most of them, if not all of them, are "curve fitting" media stories. None of them have any permanent impact on the always forward looking market.


I think you misunderstood my comment, you have to measure the reaction of the market to the news and it wasn't much...

As far as "bubble" goes, I personally don't know and don't care if the market's in a "bubble". A baseball ball costs only about $3, but a ball signed by Babe Ruth with a promise to hit a home run for an ailing 11-year-old boy was recently sold for a quarter of a million. Is the sports memorabilia in a "bubble"? Again, I don't know, and I don’t care.


This is just amazing, I wonder how many bidders there really were and what the next highest bid was...

But this sounds just insane, most likely I just don't get how important this particular ball was. :lol:

I present what I see happening in the market and back it up with my technical data. And I put my money where my mouth is by posting real time trades. I'm just a "nobody" poster on an Internet bulletin board. That's all I can do. The rest is up to the readers to decide.


Good for you. Nobody will judge you though unless you are managing other people's money...

Edited by arbman, 19 July 2014 - 09:49 AM.


#19 Harapa

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 09:58 AM

Harapa, I think we will see a correction soon, but it will be probably more than 2.5% though... BTW, to illustrate, I am not sure the trading channels are all that effective, perhaps you may want to use log charts... Clearly this is a monster advance now...

I am prepared for a correction to 1900. Since 1400, SPX has always fallen back to century mark except in 1800 zone. Technically Bears have the best setup to take the market down. See Hourly setup here. Will they?
Here is another attempt on a channel, this time using Andrew's Fork and log chart. ;)
Posted Image

Edited by Harapa, 19 July 2014 - 10:03 AM.


#20 diogenes227

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 10:43 AM

spx is 65 days above 35MA. Record since 2009 was just above 70 days in April 2012. And there were 65 days in March 2011

Thanks for this count. Very interesting.

I pay some attention to the days between deep lows on the NYMO and 60 plus is a unusually long duration. We're at 65 now, but may now be done on Thursday's drop.

Good luck and good trading.

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