71 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the commercials are the smart money. fading them is a bad idea
there are so many hot spots
we are not even talking about debt laden countries.
or a portugese bank or otherwise mishap.
complacency is the order of the day. just look @the broad market. margin debt through the roof.
anyway, my work shows a big move about to get underway
so i am positioned accordingly
i think the dollar remains strong for a period ot time. if yellen , who talks tomorrow, starts talking rising rates, while the euro rates are low and flat, sure the dollar will continue to be strong
dharma
i did mention that seasonally we are entering the strong time of the year http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html

Edited by dharma, 28 July 2014 - 01:27 PM.

[crossd]

we finished last week on a strong note. this week we begin w/options expiration today. look for 1300 near the close of options. options is a suckers game
i am not looking for much this week. we are entering the seasonal strong time of year. august will be a different feel for gold . there are so many geopolitical hotspots. debt has grown worldwide. there is no crises front and center right now.
it looks to me like C finished and the next impulse leg is beginning.
folks have been burned badly in this sector. i think for most to reenter it will require new highs. however, the east could care less, they keep buying
dharma

Well Dharma, I do look for something late this week which is a strong close by this week's end.

fine w/me. i think august is really where the fireworks get underway!
dharma

..the monthly chart is very telling..price was sitting right on the major downtrendline off the top..(futures) i thought it was breaking higher when August
hit 1345 but no a fakeout..but the selloff not as strong as i would have thought..very nice bounce from 1287..so to me if we mount another attempt at 1345 and bust higher it will hold..

dc

[dougie]

"the commercials are the smart money. fading them is a bad idea" so if they are short, being long is a bad idea?

[tria]

The so called 'smart money' Commercials are also very long the Euro and hugely short the Dollar index.

http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/EC.png

-tria

[dharma]

The so called 'smart money' Commercials are also very long the Euro and hugely short the Dollar index.

http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/EC.png

-tria

having been a broker in the domestic crude oil market, i can say unequivocally its difficult to know their position. they may be trading for a client? they may be offsetting physical(referring to gold here)
this is gs from barrons:Here's their current view, as quoted by Barron's: 'the GS' strategists' bearishness has a limit. In a note to clients this week, the strategists write that they expect the $1,200 level, or roughly 7% beneath Thursday's prices, to function as "a good estimate of the floor price for gold." A price of $1,200, they write, is the 90th percentile of all-in sustaining costs in the gold-mining sector. Putting it more plainly, it's the price below which more producers have to think about scaling back their gold output. Go appreciably below this level and the pressure builds. The result in that case should be lower output. It's for this reason that the GS strategists argue that drops below $1,200 should be "generally short-lived," albeit possible during "times of extreme declines in demand." ' -Barron's Magazine, July 24, 2014.
it looks like the chinese stock market has come out the top of a pennant formation. when their market went into the doldrums so did all commodities.
we are entering the diwali and wedding season buying in india.
i am long and will buy dips this week should the opportunity present itself
dharma

[dougie]

i think the GS idea of adding in sharp drops below 1200 to be a sound one. Menawhile down we go Imo for a week or so

[Russ]

Marty's still a bear...

http://armstrongecon...he-false-rally/

"it still appears that gold could extend this present bear market correction into September 2015 before reversing. That means we may have to see that crack below $1,000 and the majority must shift their beliefs to when there is a rally – they will just say sell it.

As we enter the end of July, the resistance stands at the 1330-1350 area and a closing below 1330 will signal gold is still weak. There are no nearby Monthly Bearish Reversals until we get down to the 1240 level. A closing below 12650 will warn that the upward momentum has been lost."

[dharma]

armstrongs biz model is strong into that time period. =the economy will be strong till then. marty , like everyone else , gets it wrong sometimes. the charts look bullish here and now. gold/silver are in the cost of production zone. so a move lower will shutter mines. making the supply part of the equation bullish. as it is now, many projects are on hold. what is on my radar is the broad market has lofty valuations. august -october is crash season. a crash in the broad market will probably put weight on the metals dharma marty got into trouble w/his short term trading. somehow he has reattained guru status. so russ, are you in the bear camp?

[dharma]

this guy trades silver by the new/full moon
https://www.tradingv...com/v/lu8aauCl/
dont laugh 42k in profit 0 in drawdowns
dharma

[Russ]

armstrongs biz model is strong into that time period. =the economy will be strong till then. marty , like everyone else , gets it wrong sometimes. the charts look bullish here and now. gold/silver are in the cost of production zone. so a move lower will shutter mines. making the supply part of the equation bullish. as it is now, many projects are on hold.
what is on my radar is the broad market has lofty valuations. august -october is crash season. a crash in the broad market will probably put weight on the metals
dharma
marty got into trouble w/his short term trading. somehow he has reattained guru status.
so russ, are you in the bear camp?

Well nobody is perfect in this world Dharma but MA gets credit for being bearish gold around 1800 and looking for 1200, now he wants blood down to 1k or so

I am still bullish and long nugt, my stuff is showing a rally into Sept/Oct, as usual its hard to be bullish with so much bearishness from the pros (commercials) out there, but there has been some bullish analysis of the sentiment and bull/bear positions too.

After this rally is over though, MA may be correct, I am seeing lows showing up in mid 2015 for a number of charts, including platinum,barrick and dust forming a low this fall which should be followed by its breaking out of its bull flag as gold goes down for its probable wash out in 2015.

R