thanks russ , marty is coming out w/a gold report so i never know if he is talking his book, so to speak or he is talking the market. i would much prefer to get your take, as above, then martys.armstrongs biz model is strong into that time period. =the economy will be strong till then. marty , like everyone else , gets it wrong sometimes. the charts look bullish here and now. gold/silver are in the cost of production zone. so a move lower will shutter mines. making the supply part of the equation bullish. as it is now, many projects are on hold.
what is on my radar is the broad market has lofty valuations. august -october is crash season. a crash in the broad market will probably put weight on the metals
dharma
marty got into trouble w/his short term trading. somehow he has reattained guru status.
so russ, are you in the bear camp?
Well nobody is perfect in this world Dharma but MA gets credit for being bearish gold around 1800 and looking for 1200, now he wants blood down to 1k or so
I am still bullish and long nugt, my stuff is showing a rally into Sept/Oct, as usual its hard to be bullish with so much bearishness from the pros (commercials) out there, but there has been some bullish analysis of the sentiment and bull/bear positions too.
After this rally is over though, MA may be correct, I am seeing lows showing up in mid 2015 for a number of charts, including platinum,barrick and dust forming a low this fall which should be followed by its breaking out of its bull flag as gold goes down for its probable wash out in 2015.
R
the dominant cycle for gold is the 21-22month cycle , which the last one was a low. the previous ones were all highs. i have it coming in march/april. so, i am looking @that for clues. right here , right now i am thinking that the low in mid 15 is a secondary low. the wheeler cycle is exerting itself on so many fronts, its why i am leaning towards the low being a secondary , wave 2 type of thing. most bugs went bust. even few of the gurus make sense. its going to be fascinating to see how this plays out . its still a time to be nimble. w/the biz cycle topping out in 15 and the wheeler cycle exerting pressure there are lots of currents on gold. i think the fed tapers to 0. their balance sheet is the most expanded its ever been. that too will have an influence. commodities in general will be in a bull when its time.
dharma