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#1 dharma

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 10:13 AM

russ- the wheeler cycle could , as you suggest , be a dominant factor going forward. war is a way, a bad way, to divert folks attention after draghi instituted a qe, it makes me wonder about germany.? qe is not a favorite for them! will they bolt from the dieing euro? join the brics? as a result of draghis actions, currency war has heated up. the euro is hitting the skids. so , its a race to 0. w/the euro, and weak yen, and all the geopolitical situations. the dollar looks good. thus gold is weak. below 1245 and imo the lows will be tested and most probably broken. 1230is the .76 tapering should help to speed up the velocity of money. after all nothing else has helped in that department while the future looks better and better for gold, the present has it walking a tightrope. caution dharma interesting to me, the full moon is tomorrow . in the past full moons were highs not the case here, maybe an inversion. ?

#2 dharma

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 01:39 PM

fridays hgnsi was -40.6% =much trepidation among newsletter writers for gold. however , the hourly oscillators for the miners are oversold and diverging, not the case for gld, its hourly chart is oversold , but no divergences. the sentiment is one indicator saying we are there, but i am not convinced hgnsi was lower in june/july of 13 for like 9 days straight when the hgnsi was -56.7% dharma

#3 dharma

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 02:03 PM

last weeks cot showed a big reduction in short positions by the commercials. i suspect this weeks cot will be more reduction of shorts dharma

#4 dharma

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 02:20 PM

http://news.goldseek.../1409945554.php
commercials covering shorts
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#5 Russ

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 02:22 PM

hi Dharma,

Well given my projection for the dollar index to peak around Oct. 7 the prospects for gold don't look too good now.

Longer term still looks bad for the metals until mid 2015, this Platinum chart is most likely going to be right, I did notice Marty wrote early 2015 may see the final capitulation for gold though, he might be right but the Plat. chart is disagreeing.

R.
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#6 dharma

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 09:49 AM

here is the gann guy on stocks http://www.ganngloba...2768a58fcdd45fb
the strong dollar is contributing to golds woes. caution is advised today/tomorrow the fed meets and announces tomorrow. my guess is they continue the taper. doing so , there is less money around , i believe qe was a contributor of deflation, and as a result some stagflation starts to show up. which it seems is already showing up, seems whatever i pay for costs me something more.
boards are multifaceted. it sits hard w/some folks who give their information for free, and others charge for their information
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#7 dharma

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 10:13 AM

this series of charts paints a picture
http://confoundedint...ortgage-growth/
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#8 Russ

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 11:20 AM

Here is a chart that might have some 'worth', note the divergence back in August and the divergences on previous bottoms, from the look of it now the price of gld is has come down close to the previous lows but the amount of stocks making new lows is much less which should be bullish eventually...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GDXHLP&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p66527297417&r=1410279329144.png
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#9 senorBS

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 01:52 PM

I have a few core longs left buy have been stopped out of most positions the past 2-3 days. Tough call here, we are very oversold technically with some potential bullish divergences, sentiment is very extreme on the bearish side, but new gold/silver lows are certainly possible as is a deep correction and no new lows. Looks to me at this time more like a capitulation/washout in the miners as opposed to a huge downleg underway, but for now being careful is my strategy and watching the near term charts closely. Since I have seen absolutely no one suggesting buying right here, guess what? it may be the time, but I prefer to see some type of good short term action. Senor

Edited by senorBS, 09 September 2014 - 01:55 PM.


#10 senorBS

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 02:19 PM

What does Gold do from here? Possibilities to ponder: 1. This is a very, very deep retracement of the rally from June to July (1240-1345) and is done - is anyone at all buying here? 2. we are still correcting a 5-wave rally from last Dec to March (1182 -1388) and need to at least take out 1240 before that is complete 3. We are going to major new decline lows below 1180 I have no strong inclination at this time Senor

Edited by senorBS, 09 September 2014 - 02:28 PM.