Jump to content



Photo

what i see


  • Please log in to reply
202 replies to this topic

#11 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,174 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 02:04 PM

http://bullion.direc...s-remain-short/


Highest open interest seen since 2008, short squeeze unfolding?

Edited by Russ, 23 September 2014 - 02:05 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#12 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 02:48 PM

w/sentiment @ an extreme, seems to me no one believes the sector can go up. dharma

#13 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,174 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 03:23 PM

w/sentiment @ an extreme, seems to me no one believes the sector can go up.
dharma


That includes Avi Gilburt too... [img]https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/feVqms6MCIhsx4M-iy0QA0kYSJtepBNJJgHp1LBQXyB_ReNGRNhnDOsQtuGxfzL6mwy-DL_KGIsCG8vtXY26awpczoutKG6vrnRovt1D03k6IeWxLiVWhddx7xiVzn0QMx_KZyFPFT4vBDcQR6ljIpQqqW8UWApbhbeIwAI=s0-d-e1-ft#http://www.elliottwavetrader.net/images/charts/201409/full-b3c7173d61c945c6c0cd6fca56a01f59d309ac62.jpg[/img]

Edited by Russ, 23 September 2014 - 03:25 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#14 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,174 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 03:48 PM

Another take... http://seekingalpha....nt-liquidations
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#15 tradesurfer

tradesurfer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,944 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 10:18 PM

http://bullion.direc...s-remain-short/


Highest open interest seen since 2008, short squeeze unfolding?



I still believe there is potential for a 'super spike' higher before end 2014 despite the devastating price destruction.

We need to remember the nature of price action. Generally it lurks sideways or in small movements for long periods of time but then only during concentrated somewhat short periods do you really see the biggest moves that make up most of the progress of the advance. So for example price could make a 20 day measured slow cumbersome uptrend, but then catapult from that into a 500 dollar up move in 4 days in the gold price.

One still cannot rule out some type of crash type action in the stock market that leads to a massive funnel of cash transfer from broad market (sp500 etc) directly into gold. The conditions are ripe. We may see a super spike into early November 2014.

Imagine hundreds of billions of dollars surging into the gold price from the exit from broad market stocks.

#16 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,174 posts

Posted 23 September 2014 - 11:05 PM

http://bullion.direc...s-remain-short/


Highest open interest seen since 2008, short squeeze unfolding?



I still believe there is potential for a 'super spike' higher before end 2014 despite the devastating price destruction.

We need to remember the nature of price action. Generally it lurks sideways or in small movements for long periods of time but then only during concentrated somewhat short periods do you really see the biggest moves that make up most of the progress of the advance. So for example price could make a 20 day measured slow cumbersome uptrend, but then catapult from that into a 500 dollar up move in 4 days in the gold price.

One still cannot rule out some type of crash type action in the stock market that leads to a massive funnel of cash transfer from broad market (sp500 etc) directly into gold. The conditions are ripe. We may see a super spike into early November 2014.

Imagine hundreds of billions of dollars surging into the gold price from the exit from broad market stocks.


You have to factor the dollar too, as Europe implodes money over there continues to seek refuge in the dollar and US assets, which of course is just a temporary shelter as the USA is going to hit the wall by 2016 too, then gold will surge once the US is no longer seen as a safe refuge. However there could be counter trends in the dollar too, I am not says a strong rally in gold cannot happen soon, but if 1180 is broken that could lead to another waterfall decline, the fear would be very strong, since my platinum chart is showing the final low in Sept. 2015 that implies there should be a rally soon though, otherwise the floor is going to be broken through and it would waterfall. Its a tough call now. The dust bull flag also implies gold is going to fall hard, the price level is now just dancing around the top trend line on dust. Armstrong also says after Nov. the dow can go to 25000.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#17 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,174 posts

Posted 24 September 2014 - 08:04 AM

I am seeing indications that Silver may go down until about Nov. 20.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#18 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,595 posts

Posted 24 September 2014 - 10:19 AM

i remember when so called analysts were saying 1500s was a floor for gold . well then india instituted the 80/20 rule and slapped a 10%tax on gold. the trap door was opened and gold fell below 1200
it seems to me one has to be alert and on guard in this market. anything is possible. i have not changed my thinking or my stance, i am a long term gold bull. i do think much higher prices will be seen @some point. right now, the market is oversold and sentiment is @extremes seen @lows.
that doesnt imply the market cant go lower, although the odds are against it right here.
a long time ago , i thought @ some point in the process of fiats being seen for what they are, i thought the dollar would be king for a period. w/japan and the euro as basket cases we are in that time right here right now. how long it lasts is a guess. but when it ends , i think gold will be ready for prime time

china has recently pledged 400billion to india to help build infrastructure. this is significant. imo india is and will be the leader in the gold market. gold is a part of hinduism. india also has refineries and an exchange planned. india, china, and dubai will form the center of the gold market. shanghai market which literally just opened is primarily a physical market
for those who want to hear gatas view on gold market manipulation , chris powell gives his presentation on the larry parks show http://www.gata.org/node/14469
i have my doubts , strong doubts , that this madness lasts until september of 15 , but these are desperate times and that calls for desperate measures.
we are either @or very close to being @ a bottom for gold
dharma

#19 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,902 posts

Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:51 AM

i remember when so called analysts were saying 1500s was a floor for gold . well then india instituted the 80/20 rule and slapped a 10%tax on gold. the trap door was opened and gold fell below 1200
it seems to me one has to be alert and on guard in this market. anything is possible. i have not changed my thinking or my stance, i am a long term gold bull. i do think much higher prices will be seen @some point. right now, the market is oversold and sentiment is @extremes seen @lows.
that doesnt imply the market cant go lower, although the odds are against it right here.
a long time ago , i thought @ some point in the process of fiats being seen for what they are, i thought the dollar would be king for a period. w/japan and the euro as basket cases we are in that time right here right now. how long it lasts is a guess. but when it ends , i think gold will be ready for prime time

china has recently pledged 400billion to india to help build infrastructure. this is significant. imo india is and will be the leader in the gold market. gold is a part of hinduism. india also has refineries and an exchange planned. india, china, and dubai will form the center of the gold market. shanghai market which literally just opened is primarily a physical market
for those who want to hear gatas view on gold market manipulation , chris powell gives his presentation on the larry parks show http://www.gata.org/node/14469
i have my doubts , strong doubts , that this madness lasts until september of 15 , but these are desperate times and that calls for desperate measures.
we are either @or very close to being @ a bottom for gold
dharma



Lots of good stuff you listed amigo. The past few days I have asked myself if anyone, anyone at all is buying or already long and bullish. The answer I seem to come to from reading several forums and commentaries is basically NO ONE. And many are looking for much, much lower prices. Reminds me of 2000/2001, 2008, and last December. A question I ask is who is left to sell? and all the sentiment measurements we use to gauge these things are at major bottom extremes. When seemingly no one is left to sell how low can/will it go? I have a very light 5-10% position, nothing else. Waiting for some near term bullish evidence, nothing yet.

Senor

#20 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,000 posts

Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:56 AM

sentiment can stay at extremes for a LONG time