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Classic UGLY BOTTOM?


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#21 senorBS

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 10:46 AM

GDX looks like it needs a decline just below 20.67 and GDXJ below 31.80 to complete possible wave "ii's", and with other stocks like ABX and NEM probably completing final fifth waves the "ugly bottom" process appears fully underway. I think we will likely go below those levels listed but a low above there would not surprise me either

BSing away

Senor

hourly charts
gld oversold
gdx and gdxj not oversold
this could be a B or 2. or something else entirely
@the fed site , the fed added 19 billion last month
dharma


IMO the rally in the indexes and most ETF's from Oct 8 is a wave 1 and we are now in the latter stages of wave 2. I could be dead wrong but my approach is like last December, we are at levels I want to accumulate, identifying the exact bottom is most often an exercise in futility, the GDX low was 20.11 and we are now at 20.91 so we are about 4% above the bottom, given how I view big picture risk/reward from here I will add slowly on lower prices. If the GDX does go just below 20.67 it will be 2.7% above the decline lows and I will likely add a tranche as that is where I think wave 2 will most likely bottom "if" my counting is el correcto.

BSing away

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 17 October 2014 - 10:55 AM.


#22 dharma

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 11:35 AM

GDX looks like it needs a decline just below 20.67 and GDXJ below 31.80 to complete possible wave "ii's", and with other stocks like ABX and NEM probably completing final fifth waves the "ugly bottom" process appears fully underway. I think we will likely go below those levels listed but a low above there would not surprise me either

BSing away

Senor

hourly charts
gld oversold
gdx and gdxj not oversold
this could be a B or 2. or something else entirely
@the fed site , the fed added 19 billion last month
dharma


IMO the rally in the indexes and most ETF's from Oct 8 is a wave 1 and we are now in the latter stages of wave 2. I could be dead wrong but my approach is like last December, we are at levels I want to accumulate, identifying the exact bottom is most often an exercise in futility, the GDX low was 20.11 and we are now at 20.91 so we are about 4% above the bottom, given how I view big picture risk/reward from here I will add slowly on lower prices. If the GDX does go just below 20.67 it will be 2.7% above the decline lows and I will likely add a tranche as that is where I think wave 2 will most likely bottom "if" my counting is el correcto.

BSing away

Senor

playing bottoms is always a high skill game. stops are necessary. i know you know that. i like the increased volatility. there could be some mojo next week
gs et al, are trying to convince everyone that the economy is strong like bull. aint exactly the case. some good delivery volume in shanghai. watching
i am looking @ this w/a similar view as yours. giving the benefit of the doubt. hard to say when , but one day the fed will lose its shine, right now they are the genius
that has every thing under control
dont worry , be happy
dharma

#23 dougie

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 11:36 AM

not ruling out this being a b wave are we?

#24 senorBS

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 11:57 AM

starting to think with this gold rally from the 1231 to 1239 that a corrective decline from 1250 could now be complete. The only gold index/ETF that took out the wave "a" low so far is HUI, GDX came within 10 ticks, very interesting and key time frame for gold and especially the miners Senor

#25 dougie

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 12:16 PM

yep interesting juncture here. might see some fireworks

#26 senorBS

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Posted 17 October 2014 - 03:24 PM

HUI now down 7 weeks in a row from triangle apex and registered new weekly closing lows again this week with RSI diverging nicely, oh yes I would describe this as a post triangle thrust. Downside momentum really waning however as the last 3 weeks have shown very little downside progress. Also keep in mind that the weekly closing low in Dec of 2013 was 190.18, so we are barely below there. We've seen much larger percentage declines over similar periods of time but it is the longest down closing streak in at least 10 years Senor

#27 Smithy

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Posted 20 October 2014 - 08:42 AM

Senor, I have wave one as 1183 to 1238 -- would you agree?

#28 senorBS

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Posted 20 October 2014 - 09:01 AM

Senor, I have wave one as 1183 to 1238 -- would you agree?



probably the best count "if" it is bullish

Senor

#29 dougie

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Posted 20 October 2014 - 11:17 AM

and if it is not?

#30 senorBS

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Posted 20 October 2014 - 02:35 PM

so far doing what we had to if abc declines in the miners is the operative count, GDX up 50 centavos, perhaps, just perhaps, the HUI/GOLD "snapback" is beginning, we see BSing away Senor