52 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Things to consider:
There's that November 30th Swiss vote followed by end of year tax loss selling which might cause a good bottom.
Maybe at much lower prices as seen in 2000/2001.

Don't rush, there may be retests of this bottom and long term resource investors should look to add to high quality position on weakness during this tax loss season. Remember that bear market bottoms and tax loss selling season are some of the best times to buy at a discounted price.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 November 2014 - 02:55 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Lots of (GLD, SLV, GDX, HUI, etc) BUY signals Friday, Jack Chan Style, as MACDs crossed up & down trend lines were broken.
CHARTS
So Jack comments:

Our ratio is close to confirming the new buy signals this week, but not quite.

Summary
Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012 when $HUI was at 550.
Short term - on new buy signals.
Gold sector cycle - up as of 11/14.
COT data suggests a major bottom is not in yet for the metals.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 November 2014 - 02:13 AM.

[CLK]

I would not touch this with call options until the weekly turned, usually only one brick on the weekly bottom turns,
tops can be 2 bricks at once. So far, no turn. On the daily candlesticks, it is only testing the bottom of a broken
flat bottom triangle from June 2013, which is bearish. I would wait for Friday closes to see where the renko weekly is at. Yeah, Friday was a big day,
but can't read much into it yet.

Edited by CLK, 16 November 2014 - 08:36 AM.

[CLK]

[Rogerdodger]

I would not touch this with call options until the weekly turned, usually only one brick on the weekly bottom turns,
tops can be 2 bricks at once. So far, no turn. On the daily candlesticks, it is only testing the bottom of a broken
flat bottom triangle from June 2013, which is bearish. I would wait for Friday closes to see where the renko weekly is at. Yeah, Friday was a big day,
but can't read much into it yet.

Sentiment seems pretty negative on gold.
Below is my post from Thursday. It still expresses my view on Gold.
NUGT got my asked for higher weekly close on all time high volume and also made a daily bullish engulfing candle on record daily volume.
And I bought JNUG on the early weakness.
But at the least some consolidation would not surprise me at all.
In a ROTH, trading is a bit limited so I'll hold what I have for now but hedge with DUST.

I am in-out-in NUGT @ average around 10.
Last week saw a huge volume reversal from 9.51, which might be the low.
Now I am looking for price over 13.60 for a higher weekly candle & to add on weakness (unless that 9.51 low is violated).
Now looking for either a higher or lower weekly close as the battle is joined.

This is a pretty good article and it describes my view:

We are not rushing to pour money into gold stocks at the moment. Our preference is to see strength in an area before committing capital. However, again, for a trade, if we were to attempt such a knife-catch, it would be done at a major level. A very reasonable argument can be made for that now as it pertains to gold stocks.

http://finance.yahoo...-203640500.html

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 November 2014 - 10:21 AM.

[AChartist]

I announced two plans and failed both. I thought I would buy longer term slv calls near 14.40-14.50, upon looking I thought it needed one mover iv-v. Upon Thurs eve I was set to buy a down open, woke about 4:30 accidentally with wife getting ready for work, fell asleep 7:00-9:00 and missed the open. Sometimes things happen like that for a reason. I will buy higher now on some validation by next Fri, or not. Its ok to pay up a bit for confirmation too.

[Mr Dev]

sorry Fib you are still on ignore but i wanted to
open up your post ...not to read it but add this ...

the march is on ....those that didnt know...will likely never know...what they ..dont know.

http://content.scree...-11-17_1132.png

Said the man who didn't quite agree with the October 15th bottom and its implications.

Hmmm...I also guess I'm off Mr. Dev probation now.

Hopefully you took your profits for, as you should know, any kind of double digit gains in these 3X funds, usually sees an equal and opposite effect the next trading day.

If not...good luck...maybe this time it will be different.

Fib

********************

now there's another laughable opinion ...which is very far from any scientific or technical analysis .

we did nothing here but talk our way into more gains on the day. !

non the less we can get rich on bear market rallies. . just as easy and maybe faster than ..buy and hold.



this reminds me of the Kid who pranks by yelling fire at the BACK DOOR of a the theater ... and then RUNS.

im starting to wonder if you're just short and maybe in denial ?

i wish you could make a call and start a thread of your own some day..instead of lurking around the fringes.

GET IN THE CAGE MATCH if you can !

For those still here in the cheap seats:

This is one of those excitable threads that is part and parcel towards the end of a bear market rally when the commodity itself is only snapping back to what was previous support.

Mission accomplished on both fronts it would seem...minimal downside target for gold is still at $1100...maximum at around $985.

Fib

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 November 2014 - 02:35 PM.

[Mr Dev]

well Monday came and has now gone...& 71.94 was todays close.

OMG...here we go..

yes yes yes. stay the course men.! ! this could get wild. . after another rest.

if it closes out only up +4.0% or +15.0 % J-NUG we still had a good day... and that sets us up for another test of 71 XAU come monday.

so far that move to 69.70 +4.5% was nice but it could close a bit lower. . if so expect a HIGH retest come monday .

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 November 2014 - 06:54 PM.

[CLK]

well Monday came and has now gone...& 71.94 was todays close.

OMG...here we go..

yes yes yes. stay the course men.! ! this could get wild. . after another rest.

if it closes out only up +4.0% or +15.0 % J-NUG we still had a good day... and that sets us up for another test of 71 XAU come monday.

so far that move to 69.70 +4.5% was nice but it could close a bit lower. . if so expect a HIGH retest come monday .

No concern the metal was flat today ? That is a neg. div. I am contimplating buying, but still skeptical. Looks like a trend change , but
I'd like to see a daily close over 6 on JNUG.

[Mr Dev]

wait you have got to be kidding me ?

Ok so ...i may not be the best educator ..but an OUT PERFORMANCE of the XAU is what i WANT TO SEE !

you need a completely different understanding of miners vs metals ... to understand why i want to be LONG in something that is out performing something else.

dont you see me moving from short one thing to short something else to long something different bi-weekly or monthly .. ?

im not chasing out performance im taking advantage of it ...buy dips in things that are going to move up whether they be ...Long Vehicles or ...short Vehicles.

but TRUST ME ...this is not random shape shifting... ive been posting it all year long.....be long the Strong and short the Weak.

im seeing the limitations of many traders here. . as they cant figure out the basic aspects to taking advantage of what the markets are saying...no doing.

im sure some are sitting back ...lurking and dissecting all my hidden clues and then doing their own homework and experimentation .. as in the past years

those are the ONEs that will be rewarded and become better at the game. ... and no doubt challenge me down the road.

if one wants to know what and why ...they need to....Do The Work.

CLK you sound like a skeptical ...emotional trader. . which is not a good thing but you are not alone. Many said that this was heading lower before HIGHER ...all wrong.

Be a technical trader.... use a technical signal (hopefully not lagging) for your entry area ...NOT PRICE OVER 6 which sounds very elementary when presented that way .

So many technical signals have already Gone Off and this is why there has already been so Much Volume and a 25% price increase ...waiting actually puts you at more risk

for a LATE entry ...and we ALL SELL TO YOU .

No concern the metal was flat today ? That is a neg. div.

I am contimplating buying, but still skeptical. Looks like a trend change , but
I'd like to see a daily close over 6 on JNUG.

Edited by Mr Dev, 17 November 2014 - 08:46 PM.