70 replies to this topic

[dharma]

http://news.goldseek.../1418416367.php
commercials more short gold large specs more long gold
sharks going to feast?
commercials more short the dollar
and more short silver
not very friendly from the cot point of view
kaumbha
dharma

[dharma]

any opinions on this
http://kingworldnews...b_Implodes.html
dharma

[dharma]

seasonally this is the strong time of year for gold. so , i am waiting to see what kind of strength the metal shows. i still think the 21-22 month cycle will hold sway. thus, a low in feb/march. i wonder when marty will change his view on the broad market, which has hit the skids. i dont think the broad market has topped yet, but this is a volatile environment.
the fed speaks on wednesday, the commercials have positioned themselves for the verbal bashing.
oil continues to search for a bottom.
i found this piece interesting http://johnbatchelor.../09/second-hour
the last low ,1130 , was met w/some buyer , taking on all comers. it doesnt matter really, the main point is the center of the gold market is shifting from london/ny to india, dubai , and china. lloyd blanein came out , on cnbc, saying that china is the center of the world gdp. in the usa gdp is in the 2-3% range, china is in the 4-9% range. sure they will not have the same standard of living on an individual level. but their influence world wide will be enormous. i also think india w/its billion + people will have a big influence. their inflation #s just came out and they were below expectation. now the choir is to lower interest rates, which i think will happen in 1st 1/2 of 15 .
as for new lows, we shall see.
dharma

[dharma]

w/oil prices being pressed by the saudis aiming @russia, iran, and venezuala and now the usa deciding to arm the Ukrainians it seems the next move could be to strike gold , which russia, china, india and the brics are deciding to put their money in. we also have the fed on wednesday, which i would think has inspired the commercials to put on a big short position. dharma.

[dharma]

"GST will replace the plethora of indirect taxes - excise, sales tax, service tax, entry tax and other local levies - with one single levy, helping create a national market for goods and delivery of services. State-specific levies and entry taxes lead to loss of revenue and cascading of taxes - taxes on taxes. Some estimates suggest GST could add as much as two percentage points to GDP. The government feels the improving fiscal situation because of softer crude prices and decontrol of diesel has given it room to meet compensation demands." - The Economic Times, December 16, 2014. well the official november import #for gold came out this am =150 tons and w/smuggling its probably over 200tons. gold popped to 1220 , then someone stepped in. and here we are below 1200. what i see is @ this point the gold bull will be well bid from india. their gdp will continue to show signs of strong growth right now , the world is dealing w/alot lower oil prices. which will affect the junk market loans made to the frackers. so while lower oil prices are a boon to consumers they are going to cause trouble for the frackers. who are in biz based on the loans they were able to secure. there are shades of 08 here in the markets. not out of control .....yet. it seems this years gains in the broad market, are rapidly disappearing. not exactly the santa rally, everyone was anticipating. but no worries , the fed talks tomorrow.. no surprise , fridays cot showed the commercials heavily short. while the large specs , are long. not usually a good set up for the bulls . dharma so far this 2nd bottom in gdx is on lower volume than the 1st bottom , but its early in the process

[dharma]

"Gold prices will recover next year as demand in China and India improves, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., which forecast an advance for bullion even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The precious metal will climb to $1,280 an ounce by the end of 2015, rising each quarter, strategists Victor Thianpiriya and Mark Pervan wrote in an e-mailed report dated Dec. 17. The forecast for end-2016 is $1,420, according to the report." - Bloomberg News, Dec 17, 2014 yesterdays 150 official #for gold imports to india was an eye opener. of course the # caused a big pop and then the expected sell off. w/lower oil prices , the indian economy is going to continue to improve. their balance of payments is going to improve also. as they get richer they will buy more and more gold . it is a completely different mind set than here. they have been through these economic upheavals time and time again. for now , though the beatings continue dharma

[dharma]

tuesday the gdxj made new lows, no other min,ing index followed . yesterday the mining indexes were all up over 7%. for all those who can value a miner these miners are really cheap. i do see gold demand picking up in india and the far east. the official 150tons from india is only a glimpse of what is to come. yesterday fed head said that most of the fed was onside for a rate hike in 15 , i think w/oil prices in the tank, @some point in 15 india will be lowering its interest rates. they are about to get richer. i do tend to agree w/marty that the move into usa stocks is a move towards the private sector away from govt. right @this juncture it seems to me gold has more work to do. its not ready for prime time. but, the pieces are falling in place for a higher gold price.the parabolic is years away. i do think the miners will lead and seek higher ground in 15 . even w/a flat gold price. keep in mind miners are near the prices of 08 when gold was 700 oz. dhamra

[tomterrific14]

tuesday the gdxj made new lows, no other min,ing index followed . yesterday the mining indexes were all up over 7%. for all those who can value a miner
these miners are really cheap. i do see gold demand picking up in india and the far east. the official 150tons from india is only a glimpse of what is to come.
yesterday fed head said that most of the fed was onside for a rate hike in 15 , i think w/oil prices in the tank, @some point in 15 india will be lowering its interest rates.
they are about to get richer. i do tend to agree w/marty that the move into usa stocks is a move towards the private sector away from govt.
right @this juncture it seems to me gold has more work to do. its not ready for prime time. but, the pieces are falling in place for a higher gold price.the parabolic is years away.
i do think the miners will lead and seek higher ground in 15 . even w/a flat gold price. keep in mind miners are near the prices of 08 when gold was 700 oz.
dhamra

" keep in mind miners are near the prices of 08 when gold was 700 oz.:"

Perhaps even more bullish is that the AISC of the majors are much lower now than when Gold was at 700. ABX has lowered its' AISC 3 times in the past year. NEM has lower AISC too. There will be a pleasant surprise when the next downward revision comes around the time of next EPS report guidance, with a major component of costs being fuel costs lower now with Oil at 55. Last revisions were when Oil was in the 80 90 range.

[dharma]

yes, there is a big benefit to the miners w/lower oil. this will get factored into the miners over the coming quarters. i do think the miners either have bottomed or are forming a bottom now. the bottom for the metals will take longer. i am still looking @the feb/march period the spin now is russia will sell its gold. i think russia and china both will sell their dollars. all the biz the 2 nations conduct w/each other are done either in gold or their currencies by passing the buck. this is a trend . the brics are all starting to follow this. the world is changing. even the imf is talking all fiats are flawed i am not looking for big moves in 15 just a change in trend. 15 is the pivot year. look @the slope of decline in the miners 11-13 . then look @14 dharma

Edited by dharma, 19 December 2014 - 12:54 PM.

[dharma]

not much
http://news.goldseek.../1419021190.php

dharma