70 replies to this topic

[dharma]

w/oil prices on the skids and wheat rising. it throws some questions out there. in fact through wars , depressions, economic chaos. the only thing that rose through all situations was wheat. not oil. not gold . just wheat. in the beginning and end folks have to eat. there are so many economy distortions caused by debt, qe, and bad government management i expect crystal balls to get very cloudy. one thing is clear debt puts the government in the hands of the bankers. that is where we are today in a situation of growing debt and shrinking economic prosperity. for me if i study the history of this bull , the 21 -22 month cycle has marked significant turns , i dont think the one in feb/march 15 will be any different. will it mark the low or the high i dont know. But what i see is india, china , russia and other sovereigns buying gold . money and power are shifting slowly to the east. now even the imf is talking about a new reserve currency. i read martys piece on emerging markets. no doubt the guy is brilliant. timing is key. right here they are keeping gold under 1200. what cant go up , usually heads down i am not doing a thing. but i do believe the miners get a tail wind before the metals. they represent value dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma "i am not doing a thing. but i do believe the miners get a tail wind before the metals. they represent value" Me too! Keep looking at the miners and waiting.

[dharma]

jg , i look for the miners to begin their ascent this year 15 dharma

[johngeorge]

Thanks dharma I don't expect any or little upside for the miners the balance of this year. Lots of year end tax loss selling plays a part. Of course we do have a minor Bradley turn date 12/26. Next year looks much more favorable to me in the Jan/Feb time frame. Best to you.

[dharma]

w/oil prices on the skids, miners will be showing improved profits in 15 . over the past 3 years miners have cut costs and now w/a major expense, lower oil pricing it will improve miners bottom line. the end of december till early january sees buying from india dry up. the far east buyers will come back in january. i look @this decline as a correction(@this point) not another down leg. we are working off an overbought condition. miners represent value. 15 will be the year for their turnaround the fundamentals are lining up for improved mining conditions. i also think the shanghai exchange sees more and more volume. eventually , down the road , surpassing comex volume9a few years forward) i see the fed increased its balance sheet again. its all a process and takes time. 15 will be a transition year. miners are priced @700 gold dharma

[dharma]

marc faber http://www.sprottmon...r-december-2014
dharma

[dharma]

gld was drawn down by over a % . i have noticed that within 3 days of that event gold makes a bottom. it has worked well in the past so we see nothing has changed in my work. i am waiting to see what feb/march brings. i can also see the bottom extending out into july. however, i do see the miners beginning a move before the metals bottom or finish bottoming. A third major bullion bank has turned bullish on gold for 2015. Standard Chartered joins HSBC and ANZ, and I'll ask you to note these three banks appear to be the only Western banks allowed to import gold into China. dharma happy holidays to all and a happy new year!

[goldfungus]

marc faber http://www.sprottmon...r-december-2014
dharma

I think we all need to consider that there will be confiscation at some point. That's why I think miner stocks are the best long term investments.

[dharma]

i dont know if there will be gold confiscation or not what i do know is the gld is a vehicle for the owners of the fund to have access to physical gold and if you read the prospectus, you may decide , as i have, that gld is not a long holding , but a vehicle to use when shorting. or hedging longs. well the 1% rule is working. we are getting the bounce. the question becomes how long it lasts i respect everyones work. i do my own stuff. and i expect some folks to get trampled by the bull when he returns. 15 will be the transition year. awaiting the feb /march period to see what takes shape. miners are closest to the turn. dharma ps. the far east will be the leaders of the bull. not the west. major cbs sold @300 ! and have yet to realize their stupidity

[dharma]

we are into the rally that i was looking for as a riesult of the +1% drawdown in gld. now what? the reaction to this rally will reveal alot. i am still waiting on the 21-22 month cycle , which is due feb/march i do think the miners will be the best long term play lets see if we can take out some resistance levels dharma