70 replies to this topic

[dharma]

adios 2014 , if you look @the slope of decline in 13 then 14 you can see gold is still on a slippery slope, but not near the loss of the previous year. raj got rid of the 80/20 rule on imports . which will help india in its gold/silver importing. the us govt sold 500k gold coins in 14 that is about 20 tons of gold. for the year. the east is where the demand comes from having ones eyes on the wests shenanigans is a waste of time. december is not a big import month for gold into india. november was/is . i feel the fundamentals of the market are changing and that is key. china smuggles alot of gold into india, which does not get recorded. 15 will start slowly. but, i think some things happen along the way. there is a huge derivative bond market on the frackers. those bonds will hit junk status. there will be huge losses. the saudis wield a 2 edge sword. dharma

[dharma]

also, there have been huge currency moves in 14. expect that to continue. until the last refuge , the dollar is also seen as badly flawed dharma

[johngeorge]

Thanks dharma for the threads Wishing you and yours a Happy Healthy New Year. 2014 Best to you

[dharma]

the new year has begun
i posted a piece by alan greenspan some months back. so here is gold the currency as the #2 performer http://www.zerohedge...g-currency-2014
so , it looks like the turks could slide into the #3 spot as a major gold importer. http://www.dailysaba...rge-in-november
of course in the past the turkish citizens were slapped around by the neo cons. now if left alone they could enter the stage as a large gold importer.
up until now the 0 interest policy of the usa and europe has worked. i suspect there will be problems going forward.
the dollar as a fiat currency has lasted longer than any other fiat in history.
here is a commentary on eurasia http://sputniknews.c...1016436434.html
i am looking for an overbalance in price of gold . in other words a rally that goes higher, in terms of points gained than any other rally. than a decline. then the birth of the bull. which is to say, i am not looking for new lows necessarily. but that could very well happen. 15 should see the miners begin to strengthen and the metals too. particularly the 2nd 1/2 of the year. the stock markets ride will end sometime this year
dharma

[dharma]

make no mistake lower oil prices are hurting russia, iran, and venezula. they are the target. of course it is also hurting the frackers who are never going to survive or pay off the enormous loans they have taken. stay tuned. this has disaster written all over it. the dollar is the only fiat game in town. it remains firm. and yet gold remains firm. what is that saying. while gold still trades like a wet lifeless noddle. it does seem move alive than it did in 13. i think this is the year the miners begin to wake up. i am waiting to see what the 1st quarter brings. dharma

[johngeorge]

Yesterday my daily gold chart remained on a buy. Weekly gold chart went to a buy. Monthly gold chart is still on a sell with 1249 as its first hurdle. For a resumption of the bull my monthly chart shows gold needs to put 1309 in the rear view mirror. As I type gold is at 1213. NUGT still on a sell.

[dharma]

keep in mind that lower oil prices increase miners profits. oil is a major expense in mining as well as transportation costs "The recent survey conducted by the country's leading credit rating agency ICRA Ltd shows that the gold jewelry demand in Indian domestic market is poised to witness 10% growth in 2015." - Scrap Monster News, January 5, 2015. w/india back in the game , the elephant is now in the room. india/china demand will put a floor under gold prices. the charts look constructive. the rally is developing slowly. the gold jewelry market is the 2nd largest employer in india. and is a key part of the hindu religion. the gold miners bullish percent index hit 0 for the 3rd time in its history , the other 2 times caused a significant rally. will this time be different? dharma these oil prices below 50 could begin to cause some problems for producers. the usa fracking industry and the canadian oil sands were financed w/debt. again the broad market is in a precarious position. marty is still quite bullish!

Edited by dharma, 06 January 2015 - 10:50 AM.

[dharma]

by the way, silver is doing more volume on the shanghai exchange than on comex. it wont be long before gold is doing more volume on shanghai exchange. probably 16 dharma

[johngeorge]

"keep in mind that lower oil prices increase miners profits. oil is a major expense in mining as well as transportation costs" This is from John Ing regarding energy prices; "Barrick Gold spent something like $1.5 billion for energy alone last year. Well, in 2010 that number was around $1 billion. So the lower energy costs will amount to a massive savings for the producers across the board. This is something that the mining industry has not talked about but we will start seeing the positive impact of this in the first quarter. This bodes extremely well for the mining sector, which has already been tightening their belts. So this could not come at a better time for the producers." – John Ing, December 15, 2014 King World News interview

[dharma]

"In 2014 silver futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) accounted for 2,908,168 tonnes. On the COMEX 2,123,387 tonnes were traded, 37 % less than in Shanghai." - Koos Jansen, Jan 2, 2015. "In the presentation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Commerce Secretary has suggested cutting import duty on gold to 2 per cent from the current 10 per cent level." the greek elections are jan 25th. the fate of them remaining in the euro is in the balance. '"Falling crude prices are beneficial to the Indian market and I believe the Indian market will outperform most of its global peers in the long run," says Rashesh Shah, Chairman, Edelweiss Group.' - Jan 7, 2015. so far , quietly the miners have been performing well, this in the face of a selloff in the broad market and a rising dollar shhhhhhhhhhhh dharma