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The Ord Oracle 7/16/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

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Posted 16 July 2004 - 10:31 AM

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For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (5/20/04) at 1089.18. Stopped out on (7/8/04) at 1111 for gain of 2%.

Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Sold SPX (5/27/04) at 1121.26 for a profit of 2.19%. Long SPX on 5/12 at 1097.26.

What to expect now:

On the graph above, we drew a support line at the previous lows at the 1124 range. On July 7 the S&P fell through this support line creating a bearish sign. Falling through previous lows is called "Falling through ICE".  Once a market falls through "ICE" the market usually tries to rally back through it. If the volume is light on the retracement back to "ICE", then a sell signal will develop at the "ICE" level (which is what we are looking for). If volume is heavy back to "ICE" then the rally will most likely continue past "ICE" and create a bullish "Shake Out". If a bullish "Shake Out" materializes then the rally would be expected to continue back to the old highs in late June near the 1145 level. Yesterday the S&P did bounce towards the "ICE" level and volume was heavy and suggests another attempt to rally is coming. In today's trading the S&P cash and futures closed on a new low with volume and suggest the downtrend will continue.  Therefore the short term picture is mixed.  We will watch for a potential bounce to 1125 area for a potential sell signal near term.  We were long the SPX (1089.18) and our stop at 1111 was hit, creating a profit of 2%. We may short the next bounce up.

Nasdaq Composite:

The Nasdaq fell through "ICE" on July 8. We are looking for a bounce back to test the "ICE" area, which is at the 1965 level. Again if volume is light on the test of the "ICE" area a bearish signal would get triggered. If volume is heavy at the "ICE" area then a bullish scenario would develop. The Nasdaq appears to be the weaker of the two indexes and would be the better shorting candidate. Flat for now.

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GOLD Market:

There is nothing really to add to yesterday's commentary. Today's trading was an inside day and nothing has changed, so yesterday's commentary still stands, "We again have included the graph of the "Dow Jones US Precious Metals Index" (courtesy of "www.decisionpoint.com". Notice when this index jumped above the previous late May high of 81 last week that the volume soared. This confirms the break above the previous high and now the previous high should act as support at the 81 level. Last weeks rally also punched through the late January low (81 level) on increased volume creating a bullish "Shake Out". If a market cannot hold the previous lows (81 level) it will try and take out the previous high. The previous high comes in at the 95 level and is the next target for this index."

Long BGO at an average of 3.06. The "PMO" has turned up on BGO and implies the short term trend has turned up. BGO has support at 2.46. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. The PMO on CBJ has turned up and implies the bottom has been seen on this issue. Because CBJ has "jumped above" some previous short term highs today, it has support near the 2.80 range. Long NXG average of 2.26 and the PMO has turned up on this issue. NXG has support at 1.35. Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. GSS PMO has turned up. Long PMU at average 1.12 and the PMO has turned up. Support on PMU comes in at .58. PMU hit a low last week at .57 and may have marked the bottom. The strongest gold issues by our studies appear to be CBJ and NXG.


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Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com


Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.

Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.

In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.

Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.

His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.


A subscription to “THE ORD ORACLE” email and fax update includes:
  • Four faxes a week, sent each week after the market close
  • The Ord Oracle’s fax recommendations.
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Tim Ord, Editor
17300 Van Dorn Street
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(402) 486-0362
Fax (402)-486-0390

http://www.ord-oracle.com
tim@ord-oracle.com